May 5 - 11, 2022 | Issue 7 - Extremism
Lydia Baccino, Daniel D’Menzie, Asya Kocheva, Extremism Team
Justin Maurina, Editor; Demetrios Giannakaris, Senior Editor
Incels Online[1]
Date: May 6, 2022
Location: Costa Mesa, California, USA
Parties involved: Johnny Denver Young; Costa Mesa Police Department (CMPD); Involuntary celibates (Incels)
The event: The CMPD is looking for an individual identified as Johnny Denver Young, who allegedly physically and verbally assaulted multiple Costa Mesa women. Young identifies as an Incel, which is a movement typically consisting of young men who hold extremely misogynistic views on women whom they blame for their sexual inactivity. Central to the Incel ideology is the idea of Lookism, which emphasizes the importance of appearance and social status to engage in sexual and romantic relationships. [2] Young’s attacks involve confronting multiple women outside bars using vulgar language, often escalating into physical violence. Young sprayed a chemical agent on the victims during the physical attacks, which law enforcement officials identified as tear gas. Young has previously been charged with several hate crimes.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The weaponization of chemical compounds will very likely entice Incels due to their ability to inflict severe harm and disfigure their victims. This will almost certainly appeal to Incels by allowing them to tarnish the physical appearance of their victims and reduce their perceived value in the sexual marketplace, likely solidifying the tactic as the dominant form of Incel violence. If chemical attacks by Incels increase, they will likely receive global coverage to instigate public discussion on the movement and the new tactical trend. This exposure will likely entice other radical actors within the movement to capitalize on the momentum and commit similar acts of violence to prove their commitment to the ideology and remain socially relevant.
Young’s conviction will very likely make him a martyr within the Incel movement and likely inspire others to emulate his actions. Members within the Incel movement will very likely seek out the status and comprehensive media coverage Young received following his attack by perpetrating acts of violence toward women. Members within the movement will likely study Young’s tactics, digital footprint, and ideological beliefs to enhance the efficiency of their operations and identify pitfalls that may have limited the scale of his attack. An increase in Incel extremism will very likely raise broad discussion surrounding women’s safety in public areas and induce mass social fear surrounding the threat of Incel extremism worldwide.
Date: May 6, 2022
Location: England
Parties involved: England; far-right YouTuber Paul Joseph Watson; Mike Cernovich; Candace Owens; President Donald Trump; New Right movement; Alt-Right; English far-right groups; Ethnic minority groups
The event: Audio surfaced capturing Paul Joseph Watson proclaiming his desire to see all Jewish people “wipe[ed] off the face of the earth.” Watson is influential in the global far-right movement, with over 2 million subscribers on YouTube and over a million followers on Twitter, where he holds a verified account. Watson rose to prominence during the Trump presidency as part of the New Right movement, a less overt white-supremacist offshoot of the popular Alt-Right movement. He has openly affiliated with provocative far-right figures such as Alex Jones and Candace Owens and frequently hosts New Right personalities on his YouTube channel, The Prison Planet.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
Watson’s anti-Semitic comments will very likely reach broad audiences due to his established online following and high-profile status. Far-right groups will very likely use Watson’s remarks to refocus hate efforts toward Jewish communities, likely amplifying anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and hate speech online. This will likely occur on fringe sites like 4Chan and mainstream social media sites like Facebook, almost certainly reaching global audiences. The prevalence of anti-Semitic narratives online will likely normalize these views in far-right echo chambers, where heightened exposure to their propaganda will likely result in increased rates of far-right radicalization and, subsequently, anti-Semitic hate crimes.
Media coverage surrounding Watson’s comments will very likely introduce new audiences to the New Right. Due to Watson’s overt affiliations with the movement, his non-political followers will likely resonate with his portrayal of the New Right and its ideology, likely resulting in increased membership. A resurgence of the New Right will likely gain the attention of domestic media outlets, likely provoking public discussion on the group’s beliefs and the threat posed by their operations. It is likely these news outlets will portray the radical movement in a negative light, which is likely to fuel their anti-establishment rhetoric and bolster their online critiques of the political mainstream.
Date: May 6, 2022
Location: Canada
Parties involved: Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS); Canadian government representatives; far-right actors
The event: The CSIS stated that extremists used the 2021 federal election to spread ideologically motivated violent extremism (IMVE) and commit acts of violence. CSIS also reported increasing threats against elected officials and government representatives since 2020 and announced that extremists had conducted seven attacks between 2014-2021, killing 26 people and wounding 40. The agency has shifted priorities, now spending the same time and resources on investigating IMVE as it does tracking religiously-motivated terrorism.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
Far-right actors will likely use events such as the 2022 Ontario and 2022 Quebec general elections to promote violence, very likely making CSIS dedicate more resources to fight IMVE. Excessive resources for IMVE will likely cause uneven distribution of funds within CSIS, likely disrupting the agency's ability to track other threats. CSIS will likely struggle to provide the Canadian government with timely information, very likely putting national security at risk. Citizens will very likely question the government’s efficacy in coping with national security issues, likely causing heightened anti-government rhetoric and protests.
Threats of violence against political figures will likely compel leaders to limit public appearances, likely hindering their connection with people. Failing to protect politicians will likely make Canadian citizens perceive the government as incapable of tackling security issues, which will likely direct their interest to fringe movements rather than conventional political parties. An increased number of people supporting extreme agendas will likely lead to civil unrest and protests similar to the Freedom Convoy rallies.
________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
[1] “Evolution” by Giuseppe Milo licensed under Creative Commons
[2] Who are the 'incels?' The involuntary celibates who want women punished, GQ Magazine, April 2018, https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/article/incel-meaning-explained
[3] Violent ‘Incel’ Wanted in Series of Attacks on Costa Mesa Women, Los Angeles Magazine, May 2022, https://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/violent-incel-wanted-in-series-of-attacks-on-costa-mesa-women/
[4] Leaked Audio Underscores Dark Side of Far-Right YouTube Subculture, Southern Poverty Law Center, May 2022, https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2022/05/06/leaked-audio-underscores-dark-side-far-right-youtube-subculture
[5] Extremists saw 2021 federal election as an ‘opportunity’ to plan violence: CSIS, Global news, May 2022, https://globalnews.ca/news/8814970/canada-extremism-2021-election-csis-report/