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GLOBAL DIPLOMATIC MOVEMENTS AROUND THE ISRAELI-HAMAS WAR

(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but may be subject to change.)


Gabriel Helupka, Sebastien Chapel, Wissal Mabrouk, Ignacio Minuesa

Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor

November 3, 2023



World Map [1]


Current Situation: As military operations in the Gaza Strip continue, diplomatic relations between Israel and some countries have deteriorated as a result of expanding operations. At the time of reporting, the Counterterrorism Group (CTG) has gathered the following information on the current diplomatic landscape after the October 7 events.


Bahrain: The Council of Representatives of Bahrain confirmed on November 2 that the Israeli ambassador has left the country, the Bahraini ambassador has returned from Israel, and economic relations with Israel have been halted. [2]

Bolivia : On October 31, Bolivia's Minister of the Presidency, Maria Nela Prada, and Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, Freddy Mamani Machaca, announced through an official communication “the decision of the Plurinational State of Bolivia to break diplomatic relations with the State of Israel.” [3]

Brazil : On October 25, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who previously remained neutral, [4] condemned Israel's war on the besieged Gaza Strip as a genocide that killed nearly 2,000 children as well as Hamas' attacks. [5]

Chile : On October 31, Chile recalled its ambassador to Israel, Jorge Carvajal, for consultations “given the unacceptable violations of International Humanitarian Law that Israel has incurred in the Gaza Strip.” [6]

Colombia : On October 31, the Colombian Government expressed through a press release its “strongest rejection of the actions of the Israeli security forces in Gaza, in areas densely populated by civilians.” The government also announced the decision of President Gustavo Petro to recall Margarita Manjarrez, the ambassador to Israel, for consultations. [7] President Gustavo Petro claimed through X that “if Israel does not stop the massacre of the Palestinian people we cannot be there.” [8]

Cuba : On October 29, Cuban President Miguel Dìaz-Canel condemned Israel and the US for “waging 75 years of genocide and occupation of Palestine.” [9] He then justified Hamas' attacks based on the principle of self-determination against “the aggressive and expansionist Israeli politic. ” [10]

Jordan : Jordanian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriate Affairs, Ayman Al-Safadi, summoned their ambassador from Israel on November 1. [11] The Kingdom rejects and condemns the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip and considers the war “will threaten the security of the entire region and international security and peace.” [12]

Kuwait : On November 1, Kuwait's Foreign Ministry issued a statement condemning the actions of "Israeli occupation forces" in the "besieged" Gaza Strip, particularly their aggression against the Jabalia camp. [13] The Ministry condemned the “continued escalation carried out by the occupying forces in the Palestinian territories in general.” It also demanded the UN Security Council assume its responsibility for safeguarding the Palestinian population from violence, urging an immediate ceasefire and a humanitarian truce as per the UN General Assembly resolution passed on October 27. [14]

Morocco : On November 2, the Kingdom of Morocco affirmed through an official statement that Israeli actions in the Gaza Strips are “inconsistent with international humanitarian law and common human values.” Morocco also said the actions threaten “the security and stability of the entire region. [15]

Nicaragua: Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega called the military operation a “genocide due to the bombings of civilian buildings in the Gaza Strip. The government of Nicaragua openly condemned the attacks on the Gaza Strip, and the occupation of the territories by the Israeli government. [16]

Turkey: On October 25, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that "Hamas is not a terrorist organization but a group of liberators and mujahideen" during a parliamentary speech. [17] He claimed that Turkey does not “find right either” those “who are brutally murdered every day for acts (by Hamas),” but those acts “cannot even be compared to these massacres.” [18] On October 31, he expressed that “no good can come to humanity or the world from 'freshwater rights defenders' who do not speak out against Israel's massacres.” [19]

Somalia: On November 2, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre of Somalia made similar comments to Turkey, claiming that Hamas is a “liberation movement” in a conference for scholars in Mogadishu. [20]

Venezuela : On November 1, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro demanded a ceasefire and called what is happening in Gaza a “genocide.” [21] Venezuela, which has no official diplomatic ties with Israel, followed this standpoint and supported the Palestinian cause. [22]


Day/Time of event: November 3, 2023


What is the current threat:

  • The global diplomatic landscape surrounding the Israeli-Hamas war suggests that there's almost no chance for the international community to achieve a unified stance. It also suggests a likely chain reaction in which the decision of Bolivia to sever diplomatic ties with Israel, and the decision of Colombia and Chile to recall ambassadors serve as catalysts. This pattern is likely to influence other countries, likely creating a ripple effect. The widespread condemnation of Israel's military actions in the Gaza Strip makes it very likely for the deterioration of diplomatic ties with Israel to extend further.

  • Turkey's stance that, "Hamas is not a terrorist organization but a group of liberators and mujahideen" will very likely escalate tensions in the region and also with NATO members that maintain close ties with Israel. Somalia's similar viewpoint characterizing Hamas as a “liberation movement” will likely threaten its status quo, likely distancing the country from nations with closer ties to Israel.

  • The Kingdom of Bahrain's diplomatic stance will very likely threaten the stability of the Abraham Accords and the diplomatic relations established under its framework. Other signatories such as Morocco, Sudan, and the United Arab Emirates, will likely receive pressure to reassess their commitment to the agreements, likely deteriorating diplomatic ties with Israel.


Who will it directly impact:

  • Israel Embassies and Consulates

  • Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs

  • Israeli citizens abroad

  • Palestinian citizens

  • Gaza Strip residents

 

[2] The House of Representatives confirms that the Israeli ambassador has left the country, the Bahraini ambassador has returned from Israel, and economic relations with Israel have been halted, Council of Representatives Kingdom of Bahrain , November 2023, https://www.nuwab.bh/%d9%85%d8%ac%d9%84%d8%b3-%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%86%d9%88%d8%a7%d8% a8-%d9%8a%d8%a4%d9%83%d8%af-%d8%a3%d9%86%d9%87-%d8%aa%d9%85-%d9%85%d8%ba% d8%a7%d8%af%d8%b1%d8%a9-%d8%a7%d9%84%d8%b3%d9%81%d9%8a%d8%b1-%d8%a7/

[3] Bolivia breaks diplomatic relations with Israel and llama a cesar los ataques a la Franja de Gaza, Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores , October 2023, https://cancilleria.gob.bo/mre/2023/10/31/11891/

[4] Israel criticizes South American countries after they cut diplomatic ties and recall ambassadors, AP News , November 2023, https://apnews.com/article/israel-bolivia-colombia-chile-argentina-brazil-4cc038c0dbe1de9b5e4118e2ceac2181

[5] Governo installed Conselho da Federação com a participação do presidente Lula, Canal Gov, October 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= lGtFWz_kg1w (Translated by Youtube)

[6] Chile llama en consultas a embajador de Chile en Israel, Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores , October 2023, https://minrel.gob.cl/noticias-anteriores/chile-llama-en-consultas-a-embajador-de- chile-in-israel

[7] Press release, Chancellery Colombia , October 2023, https://www.cancilleria.gov.co/newsroom/publiques/comunicado-prensa-71

[ 8 ] Petrogustavo ,

[ 9] Manolo De Los Santos ,

[10] Ibid

[12] Ibid

[13] A statement issued by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs regarding the State of Kuwait's condemnation of the aggression launched by the Israeli occupation against the Jabalia camp in the besieged Gaza Strip, Kuwait Foreign Affairs Ministry , November 2023, https://www. mofa.gov.kw/ar/media-center/news/2023/11/2023-11-01/

[14] Ibid

[15] Statement, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, African Cooperation and Moroccans Residing Abroad , November 2023, https://diplomatie.ma/en/node/4187

[16] Canal Parlamentario Nicaragua, X , October 2023, https://twitter.com/cparlamentonic/status/1710769781874258356

[17] Erdogan accuses Israel of abusing Turkey's 'good will' | AFP, AFP News Agency , October 2023, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNg3nXiFg7I&ab_channel=AFPNewsAgency

[18] Ibid

[ 19 ] RTErdogan ,

[ 20 ] HarunMaruf ,

[ 21 ] NicolasMaduro ,

[22] Israel-Hamas: Why is the Sukkot war dividing Latin America?, Le Grand Continent, October 2023 https://legrandcontinent.eu/fr/2023/10/20/israel-hamas-pourquoi-la-guerre -of-sukkot-divided-latin-america/

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