April 11-17, 2024 | Issue 15 - PACOM
Chloe Woodbine, Mrinmoy Routh, Samuel Pearson, Geo Arshali, Siddhesh Shimpukade
Sophia Hahn, Editor; Christina Valdez, Senior Editor
Kashmir’s Mountainous Terrain and Agrarian Economy[1]
Date: April 11, 2024
Location: Frassipora, Pulwama District, Jammu and Kashmir, India
Parties involved: India security forces; Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF); Jammu and Kashmir Police (JKP); Kashmir Area Police; Islamist militants; Friends and family of the deceased militant; Kashmiri residents; Kashmiri local business
The event: A clash between Indian security forces and Islamist militants killed one unidentified terrorist. The exchange of fire occurred hours after Indian security forces undertook “cordon and search operations” (CASO) in the area after they received intelligence reports indicating militant presence.[2] Security forces reported that they captured weapons, ammunition, and “incriminating materials” from the site of the militant’s body.[3] Kashmiri residents have previously accused Indian forces of sexual harassment and vandalism during CASO, but security forces claim that they are effective measures for disrupting militant activities.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
The public's trust in Kashmir Area Police statements and investigations is very likely to decrease due to the uncertainty regarding the identity of the alleged terrorist and the lack of details on the weapons carried. Incomplete information will very likely worsen tensions and foster mistrust, emphasizing the necessity for reliable law enforcement reporting in sensitive conflict situations. The JKP will likely try to ease these tensions and mistrust from citizens by opening an investigation to ascertain the truth.
The militants likely attacked security forces in response to CASO, as these operations incite resentment amongst affected populations due to the invasion of privacy and previous abusive practices. Islamist militants in Jammu and Kashmir will likely seek to exploit this resentment by attacking security forces carrying out these operations, to show that they are aligned with Kashmiri interests and build support for their campaign to remove Indian security forces from Kashmir. Militants will likely use firearms and small explosives like grenades as they are more available from arms smugglers than other weapons, posing a danger to Indian security forces.
The use of lethal force in this instance will very likely motivate further attacks by friends and family of the deceased militant, as these people will very likely hold a grievance against the security forces. To curb these attacks, security forces will likely crack down further on arms smuggling. Security forces’ actions will likely slow trade inside and outside Jammu and Kashmir due to increased checks for arms smuggling, likely affecting local business.
Date: April 14, 2024
Location: Pyin Oo Lwin, Mandalay, Myanmar
Parties involved: Myanmar; Mandalay region; Myanmar Coup Leader Senior Gen, Min Aung Hlaing; Junta soldiers; Defense Services Academy (DSA); Defense Services Technology Academy (DSTA); Pyin Oo Lwin civilians; Pyin Oo Lwin hospital; Aung Myay Zaya monastery; Three Brotherhood Alliance (coalition of armed rebel groups fighting the military government); Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA); Arakan Army (AA); Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA); local authorities; emergency response teams; Myanmar tourists
The event: Missile attacks on two military universities and surrounding areas during Min Aung Hlaing's visit to Pyin Oo Lwin City's water festival resulted in three deaths, eight injuries, and significant damage to university buildings. Residents reported that an unidentified group fired 25 missiles at DSA and DSTA, as well as damaging a nearby hospital and monastery. The attacks caused residents and tourists to flee the city while local authorities initiated security checks and preparations to transfer patients to nearby hospitals. No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, but residents believe the unidentified group attacked because of the junta leaders' visit.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
The junta will likely retaliate and respond forcefully to the missile attacks as they perceive the attacks as a challenge to their authority, which is likely to include airstrikes or artillery against rebel-held districts. The junta's harsh response will likely spark resentment and resistance among the civilian population, very likely leading to increased protests and clashes against military rule. Rebel groups will likely repeat these tactics if the above occurs as predicted, successfully damaging the junta’s support and perceptions of their power among the population, likely risking collateral damage among Myanmar civilians.
There is roughly an even chance that the Three Brotherhood Alliance, consisting of the TNLA, the AA, and the MNDAA, carried out the attacks. Given that the alliance has attacked these areas before and almost certainly has knowledge about the topography, landmarks, and military strength, it is very likely that the attack was well-planned and coordinated to align with Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing’s visit, likely to deliver a strong message to the junta to give up their control on Pyin Oo Lwin. The alliance very likely wants to reclaim control over more areas near Highway 3, as it would very likely be easier to transport resources and artillery.
The junta forces will likely increase the presence of emergency response teams in the Mandalay region to maintain security and deter further attacks. An increased presence of armed personnel, checkpoints, surveillance, and greater restrictions on movement will very likely be perceived as oppressive by residents as it further limits their freedoms. The visible presence of the military likely escalates tensions, which will very likely evoke feelings of unease among locals, particularly those who have experienced violence firsthand, motivating them to attack the military.
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[1] ‘Kashmir’, generated by a third party.
[2] Terrorist killed in encounter in J&K’s Pulwama, Times of India, April 2024, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/anti-terror-operation-under-way-in-pulwamas-frasipora-area-kashmir/articleshow/109211114.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst
[3] Encounter in Jammu & Kashmir's Pulwama district; one terrorist killed, The Hindu, April 2024, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/jammu-and-kashmir/encounter-in-jammu-kashmirs-pulwama-district-one-terrorist-killed/article68053386.ece
[4] In Kashmir, Security Searches Lead to Sexual Abuse, The Diplomat, August 2018, https://thediplomat.com/2018/08/in-kashmir-security-searches-lead-to-sexual-abuse/
[5] Water festival attacks kill 3 during Myanmar coup leader’s holiday, Radio Free Asia, April 2024,