AN IDENTITARIAN MOVEMENT ACTIVIST WHO OCCUPIED THE HERMANNSDENKMAL WORKED WITH AFD MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT; AND IN BANGLADESH, AUTHORITIES ARRESTED MEMBERS OF AN ALLEGED ISLAMIST NETWORK

July 9- 15, 2026 | Issue 28 - EUCOM and PACOM Teams

Cristiana Harless, Mackenzie LaCombe, Jared Carvente, Leon Kille, Lorenzo Calavaro, Aristide Devevey, Lucy Gibson, Europe & Pacific Teams

Jaydn Burgin, Embedded Editor; Ben Joshua Gentemann, Junior Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Hermannsdenkmal^[1] 

Date: July 9, 2026

Location: Düsseldorf, North Rhine-Westphalia State, Germany

Parties involved: Germany; political party Alternative for Germany (AfD); AfD politicians; AfD-affiliated Members of the European Parliament (MEPs); AfD-linked political institutions; political party Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ); FPÖ-affiliated Members of the European Parliament (MEPs); political actors; ethno-nationalist movement Identitarian Movement (IM); IM members; IM activist; supporters; isolated followers; groups promoting a nationalist ideology; immigrants; cultural minorities; ethnic minorities; left-wing individuals; left-leaning voters; bystanders; social and professional networks

The event: An IM activist employed as an assistant to AfD- and FPÖ-affiliated MEPs participated in the occupation of the Hermannsdenkmal national monument.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• The public association of an IM activist with AfD- and FPÖ-affiliated MEPs will likely increase perceptions that IM ideology is gaining acceptance within parliamentary environments, likely motivating additional supporters to join. To increase recognition, IM members will likely align more closely with the AfD political agenda, with a roughly even chance of raising their frequency of participation in public AfD-affiliated rallies. Perceived ideological alignment between AfD politicians and IM members will likely normalize anti-immigrant rhetoric, expanding public clashes over freedom of speech and anti-immigration laws. Increasingly overt expressions of identitarian support will likely encourage greater coordination among isolated followers, likely expanding the IM’s recruitment network and influence across Germany and online.

• Historical and cultural sites of national relevance will likely increase their strategic value for groups promoting a nationalist ideology, likely raising concerns of tensions among cultural minorities and left-leaning voters. IM members will likely spread online content of monument occupations, likely encouraging supporters to gather at historically significant sites that reinforce confrontational nationalist historical narratives. The increased use of cultural sites as symbols of national identity will likely lead to a politicization of these monuments, with a roughly even chance that some IM members will incite ideological debates with bystanders using chants and clothing displaying extremist messages. These activities have a roughly even chance of increasing perceptions of danger among immigrants, ethnic minorities, and left-wing individuals at these sites, likely increasing expectations of targeted hostility.

• The involvement of an IM activist in AfD politics will likely increase the political salience of remigration-focused narratives, likely enhancing IM activists’ ability to shape immigration-related political debates. Personnel overlaps between IM activists and AfD-linked political institutions will likely blur the distinction between activist and parliamentary environments, likely enabling individuals operating across both spheres to introduce extremist policy preferences into political discussions through shared social and professional networks. The introduction of extremist policy preferences through informal channels will likely increase opportunities for political actors to adapt activist messaging for political debate, likely enabling remigration-focused narratives to compete with established approaches to immigration policy. Increased political engagement with remigration-focused proposals has a roughly even chance of amplifying the prominence of issues emphasized by IM activists, likely increasing pressure on political actors to engage with themes such as remigration and cultural preservation when discussing immigration-related challenges and solutions. 

Date: July 12, 2026

Location: Dhaka, Bangladesh

Parties involved: Bangladesh; Bangladeshi state institutions; Bangladeshi police;  authorities; prosecutors; martial arts organization Fatah Combat System (FCS); members; FCS sympathizers; martial arts groups; alleged Islamist extremist network; other Islamist extremist groups; Islamist actors; Islamist group Neo-Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (Neo-JMB); religious communities; social organizations; institution-skeptical demographics; subset who perceives state overreach and societal decline; suspects’ defense attorney

The event: Bangladeshi police arrested members of an alleged Islamist extremist network operating under the guise of Fatah Combat System (FCS).^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• The arrest will likely allow FCS sympathizers to frame the group as a victim of state overreach, likely increasing the credibility of Islamist victimhood narratives among institution-skeptical demographics. FCS sympathizers will likely leverage the social value of the group’s martial arts and religious activities to portray allegations of militant conduct as fabricated, likely reframing the arrests as the unjustified targeting of a community organization. Narratives emphasising religious identity will have a roughly even chance of shifting the accusations into collective grievances, likely enabling other Islamist actors, such as the Neo-JMB, to portray Bangladeshi state institutions as anti-Muslim within discussions of perceived discrimination against religious communities. Framing extremist narratives as a defence of legitimate religious grievances will likely make Islamist messaging appear justified to a subset who perceives state overreach and societal decline, likely lowering psychological barriers to engagement with Islamist messaging before ideological commitment develops.

• The judicial proceedings’ handling of the case will likely expose structural weaknesses in the Bangladeshi criminal legislation, limiting the counterterrorism operations' success. The suspects’ defense attorney will very likely counter incriminating evidence by exploiting legislative loopholes in the criminal justice system, such as the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) not specifically outlawing recruitment to further terrorism, likely delaying the judicial proceedings. Prosecutors’ need to pursue alternative charges will likely prolong judicial proceedings beyond the approved three-day remand, likely reducing the preventive enforcement measures’ success by leading to the accused's temporary release. A protracted legal process will very likely hinder the authorities from establishing a legal precedent through an immediate conviction that demonstrates accountability for covertly exploiting social organizations, likely failing to deter other Islamist extremist groups from using martial arts groups as recruitment and networking platforms for militant activities.    

---

[1] Hermannsdenkmal, generated by a third party database

[2] Hermann Monument occupier works for AfD member of parliament, Der Spiegel, July 2026, https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/detmold-hermannsdenkmal-besetzer-arbeitet-fuer-afd-abgeordnete-staatsschutz-ermittelt-a-c2f65fa6-5af5-4440-a8ef-b81c1405abc1 (Translated by Google)

[3] Bangladesh busts alleged extremist network masquerading as ‘martial arts group’, The Indian Express, July 2026, https://indianexpress.com/article/world/bangladesh-dhaka-martial-artssympathizersextremist-network-arrested-jatrabari-10783369/