BEHAVIORAL THREAT ASSESSMENT OF ROBIN WESTMAN

Senior Editor
a few seconds ago
10 min read

Ashley Snyder, Intelligence Analyst

James Raggio, Editor

September 1, 2025

Minneapolis, Minnesota Map^[1]

Name of Person/Terrorist/Person/Terrorist/Leader: Robin Westman

Date of Death: August 27, 2025

Summary

On August 27, 23-year-old Robin Westman opened fire at the Annunciation Catholic School in Minnesota, killing two and injuring 17 before taking their own life.^[2] Using the timed-post function on YouTube, Westman uploaded a manifesto video following the beginning of the attack, which showed them flipping through a journal written in Russian Cyrillic alphabet using English spelling before showing a cache of weapons and ammunition.^[3] Westman’s weapons and ammunition were covered in hateful and violent words and phrases that simultaneously targeted and praised a variety of individuals and groups, ranging from President Donald Trump to previous school shooters.^[4] Authorities have released little about Westman’s motive for the attack, but law enforcement and Annunciation Catholic School have confirmed that they graduated from the school in 2017.^[5] Westman, who identified as transgender, legally changed their name from Robert Paul Westman to Robin M. Westman in 2020; however, there is no evidence that Westman’s gender identity was a motive for the attack.^[6] Westman almost certainly planned the attack for a long period of time and intended to commit suicide before being arrested. Future copycat attackers will likely cover their weapons with politically or religiously motivated writings in honor of Westman.

Event Overview

On Wednesday, August 27, at approximately 0830 CDT, the Minneapolis Police Department responded to an active shooter at Annunciation Catholic School, located five miles south of Minneapolis.^[7] Police identified the shooter as Robin Westman, a suburban Minneapolis-native, who fired multiple rounds through church windows during morning mass before taking his own life.^[8] Westman, armed with a pistol, rifle, and shotgun, used all three weapons, killing two children and injuring 17 others, including 14 children and three parishioners.^[9]

POI Overview - Items of Interest

Westman, born in 2002 as Robert Paul Westman, legally changed their name to Robin M Westman in January 2020. Court documents state Westman requested the change after identifying as a female. Westman’s parents provided the necessary legal support since they were a minor at the time. ^[10]

While authorities said in press conferences on the day of the shooting that Westman had no prior criminal record, court documents show Westman was charged and pleaded guilty to two petty misdemeanors in September 2021, for which they paid the necessary fines.^[11]

Records confirm that Westman graduated eighth grade from Annunciation Catholic School in 2017, and that their mother previously worked at the school’s church as a parish secretary.^[12]

At the time of writing, authorities have not confirmed much about Westman’s hobbies, beliefs, or background. Most available information comes from YouTube videos Westman posted before and after the shooting began, using the timed-post function. Others copied the videos before their removal, allowing their circulation on X, including Westman’s manifesto and a video of various weapons, ammunition, and magazines with concerning writing on them. The manifesto appears to be written in Russian Cyrillic letters, but uses English spelling.^[13] Another video on X shows an apology letter Westman wrote for their family and friends.^[14]

Below are some writings of interest that appeared on weapons and ammunition in the videos published by Westman, which may identify observable indicators to determine if there was an opportunity to prevent this attack. This is not an exhaustive list. The videos showed many other hateful and violent writings on the weapons and ammunition, however, this list provides an insight into the conflicted yet aggressive mindset Westman was in prior to and during the attack.

“Jew gas” on a smoke bomb^[15]
Vicki Weaver, on a gun, a reference to Randy Weaver’s wife from Ruby Ridge^[16]
“Nuke India” on a gun^[17]
“Release the list” on a gun^[18]
“Like a Phoenix we rise from the ashes” on a gun, a potential reference to Phoenix Ikner, but not confirmed^[19]
“Israel must fall” on a gun^[20]
“Baruk Khazad” on a gun, the name of a dwarf heavy metal Swedish band^[21]
“Cyka” on a gun, a Russian word for bitch, but also the name of a popular Russian song by the band Village Russian boys^[22]
“Robert Bowers” on a gun, the name of the Tree of Life Synagogue shooter^[23]
“Waco” on gun, a reference to Waco, Texas^[24]
“Kill Trump now” on a gun^[25]
“Brenton 4ever” on a gun, reference to the Brenton AR hunting rifle brand^[26]
“McVeigh” on a gun, a reference to Timothy McVeigh, the perpetrator of the Oklahoma City bombing^[27]
“Burn Israel” on a gun^[28]
“Sol Pais” on a gun, a reference to Sol Pais, who was sought after by the FBI for her infatuation with the Columbine shooting, before committing suicide^[29] ^[30]
“Fuck Nyjah” on a gun, a reference to Nyjah Huston, celebrity skateboarder who got into an altercation with another man, and Westman claimed Nyjah “raped someone”^[31]
“6 million wasn’t enough” on a gun, a reference to those who were killed during the Holocaust^[32]
The names of other mass shooters on gun clips, including Lanza, Whitman, and Roslyakov^[33] ^[34]
“Rupnow” on a gun, reference to Natalie Rupnow, the Abundant Life Christian School shooter from December 2024^[35]
“Breivik” on a gun, reference to Anders Breivik, who killed 77 people in an attack in Norway in 2011^[36]

Note: View Observable Indicators and Characteristics by downloading the full report located at the bottom of this report.

Classification as Terrorism

According to TRAP-18 creators, most lone actors displayed 13 of 18 TRAP-18 variables (72%). These individuals showed a frequency of greater than 70% on five distal factors: personal grievance and moral outrage, framed by an ideology, dependence on the virtual community, thwarting of occupational goals, and changes in thinking and emotion. They displayed greater than 77% of the following proximal warning behaviors: pathway, fixation, identification, and leakage.^[47] Lone-actor terrorists have shown a pattern of common pre-attack behaviors, discerning them from general criminals

Based on a CTG investigation, Westman displayed six of the 18 indicators aligning with other lone-actor terrorists. Westman displayed three out of 10 distal factors, coinciding with two factors that terrorist lone actors show a frequency of greater than 70% on: dependence on the virtual community and changes in thinking and emotion. Westman displayed three out of eight warning behaviors coinciding with three of the four factors that terrorist lone actors show a frequency of greater than 77% on: identification, fixation, and pathway.

Westman’s conflicting messages of hate towards a variety of groups and support of notorious shooters and mass murderers almost certainly significantly reduced law enforcement’s chances of preventing Westman’s attack. Westman’s seemingly last-minute decision on their target, coupled with the scope and variety of targets they mentioned, makes it very difficult to establish a politically or religiously related motive. Westman did not meet TRAP-18’s minimum of 13 characteristics for lone actors, however, Westman’s ramblings and writings in their manifesto establish that they intended to commit a mass-murder attack for a long period of time prior to the Annunciation School shooting.

Following the shooting, the FBI announced it was investigating the attack as domestic terrorism and a hate crime against Catholics. Analysts used only publicly available information at the time of writing to determine Westman’s TRAP-18 classification; however, the FBI may have access to further evidence, which may influence how they classify Westman’s actions.

Target, Goal, and Motive

While it is unknown whether Westman always intended to target Annunciation Catholic School, a drawing in Westman’s manifesto depicted the interior layout of a church, including pews and an altar.^[48] Based on writing from Westman’s manifesto and the comments in their videos, Westman very likely had the goal of creating chaos and fear, and almost certainly intended to commit suicide following their attack. Records confirm Westman attended Annunciation Catholic School, graduating eighth grade in 2017, and Westman’s mother also worked at Annunciation Church, which is affiliated with the school, before retiring in 2021.^[49]

Conspiracy Theories and Copycats

The variety of groups and individuals mentioned by Westman on their weapons and manifesto will very likely influence conspiracy theories and copycats. One likely outcome is that conspiracy theorists selectively choose which writings they focus on to formulate theories and stories, tailoring them to push agendas they believe in. Another likely outcome is that individuals who are unaware of the attackers Westman included on their weapons will now learn about these attacks, which will likely become inspirations for attacks. Copycats will likely add writings on their weapons as an homage to Westman’s attack. Future copycat attackers have a roughly even chance of using an alphabet or code to plan their attack. Inspired by Westman, future attackers have a roughly even chance of believing that using different alphabets or codes will allow them to openly plan attacks without their intentions being discovered.

Future Implications

School shooters and violent individuals will likely write politically- and religiously-motivated terms and phrases on their weapons to ensure their motive is understood while paying tribute to Westman’s attack. There is a roughly even chance that some perpetrators will deliberately write conflicting phrases and messages to confuse investigators and create a political divide. While some may view such writings as useful insight into the mindset of an attacker, there is a roughly even chance that law enforcement will struggle to confirm whether writings on weapons accurately depict a perpetrator’s views until later in an investigation.

The Annunciation shooting highlighted the panic that can ensue when an active shooter occurs in a part of the school where students have less practice hiding, and future attackers will likely use this fear and uncertainty to their advantage. Schools will likely begin to practice active shooter drills in various locations, such as churches or cafeterias, within their buildings and on campus, as opposed to only practicing how to react to an active shooter in a classroom.

Despite Minnesota being one of 21 states that have Red Flag Laws, which allow judges to confiscate weapons from a person who is believed to pose a risk to themselves or others, Westman was still able to accumulate large amounts of weapons and ammunition.^[50] Individuals who are considering conducting attacks, but were initially concerned about being caught, will now likely believe that they can plan their attack unnoticed. The failure to detect Westman, despite Minnesota’s Red Flag Laws, will likely motivate those considering attacks, while very likely increasing civilian distrust in the local and state government’s attack prevention methods.

The unexpected nature of Westman’s attack will very likely increase discourse nationwide about how much parents are responsible for their children’s actions. Additionally, discourse will very likely discuss how private items such as journals or a child’s social media should be monitored or controlled. Groups advocating for reduced privacy in children’s personal spaces will likely use the failure to detect Westman’s actions in the first three stages of the Pathway to Violence to argue for more parental responsibility following attacks. These groups will likely use Westman’s journal and manifesto as evidence for the importance of detection in the Preparation stage in the Pathway. Furthermore, parents who do not support the Second Amendment will very likely increase lobbying for more limiting gun and ammunition purchasing laws. Due to the purchasing of weapons and ammunition falling within the fourth of six stages in the Pathway, groups that advocate against the Second Amendment will likely push for stricter gun laws and background investigations to ensure buyers do not meet Red Flag Law criteria.

Westman’s conflicting statements on their weapons and ability to conceal a desire to hurt others will likely create discourse regarding the TRAP-18 assessment, likely questioning its role as a useful tool to measure whether authorities could have prevented the attack. Westman and many other attackers have not fit the TRAP-18 mold for an attacker, very likely due to the evolving nature of the modern perpetrator who has access to lethal weapons and social media platforms. Officials within organizations such as the Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC), who specialize in active shooter prevention and consultation, will very likely use patterns from recent attacks to develop a new version of TRAP-18 to help identify characteristics that have become more prevalent. Due to Westman’s actions closely following the stages in the Pathway to Violence, organizations such as NTAC will likely use the Pathway to Violence to remodel the TRAP-18 assessment.

The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) has become the global leader in proactively fighting terrorist organizations around the world. CTG specializes in intelligence collection and analysis, as well as investigative work in counterterrorism. CTG resources are delivered to advise clients on a business resilience process using current threat intelligence data. We scan for threats across the following regions: Africa, Central Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Asia-Pacific. Our organization assesses evolving threats through Worldwide Analysis of Threats, Crime, and Hazards (W.A.T.C.H.) services. Our W.A.T.C.H Officers and Digital Targeters monitor the threat posed by cyber threats, insider threats, fraud, espionage, hazards, reputational damages, violent crime, kidnappings, and bombing threats. To find out more about our products and W.A.T.C.H. services, visit us at counterterrorismgroup.com.

[1] Annunciation Catholic School by Google Maps

[2] What we know about the suspect in the Minneapolis Catholic school shooting, NBC News, August 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/minneapolis-catholic-school-shooting-rcna227591

[3] @RealAustinAyers, X, August 27, 2025, https://x.com/RealAustinAyers/status/1960749888276468119

[4] Ibid

[5] Who is Robin Westman, suspect in the Annunciation Church shooting?, The Minnesota Star Tribune, August 2025, https://www.startribune.com/who-is-robin-westman-suspect-in-annunciation-school-shooting/601462759

[6] Order Granting Name Change of a Minor, via CyberHUMINT

[7] What to know about the Annunciation Catholic School shooting in Minneapolis, PBS, August 2025, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/nation/what-to-know-about-the-annunciation-catholic-school-shooting-in-minneapolis

[8] Ibid.

[9] What we know about the suspect in the Minneapolis Catholic school shooting, NBC News, August 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/minneapolis-catholic-school-shooting-rcna227591

[10] Order Granting Name Change of a Minor, via CyberHUMINT

[11] Case Details (Register of Actions), via CyberHUMINT

[12] Who is Robin Westman, suspect in the Annunciation Church shooting?, The Minnesota Star Tribune, August 2025, https://www.startribune.com/who-is-robin-westman-suspect-in-annunciation-school-shooting/601462759

[13] What we know about the suspect in the Minneapolis Catholic school shooting, NBC News, August 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/minneapolis-catholic-school-shooting-rcna227591

[14] @disclosetv, X, August 27, 2025, https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1960760799515009129

[15] @RealAustinAyers, X, August 27, 2025, https://x.com/RealAustinAyers/status/1960749888276468119

[16] Ibid

[17] Ibid

[18] Ibid

[19] Ibid

[20] Ibid

[21] Ibid

[22] Ibid

[23] Ibid

[24] Ibid

[25] Ibid

[26] Ibid

[27] Ibid

[28] Ibid

[29] Ibid

[30] Columbine-obsessed teen Sol Pais, who threatened local schools, found dead: Police, ABC News, April 2019, https://abcnews.go.com/US/colorado-authorities-searching-columbine-obsessed-woman-threatened-denver/story?id=62440721

[31] @RealAustinAyers, X, August 27, 2025, https://x.com/RealAustinAyers/status/1960749888276468119

[32] Ibid

[33] @BiffShackleford, X, August 27, 2025, https://x.com/BiffShackleford/status/1960760776395796563

[34] @RWApodcast, X, August 27, 2025, https://x.com/RWApodcast/status/1960783716805984293

[35] What we know about Minneapolis shooting suspect Robin Westman, USA Today, August 2025, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/crime/2025/08/27/shooter-suspect-minneapolis-mass-shooting/85849795007/

[36] Ibid

[37] “Assessing the threat of lone-actor terrorism: the reliability and validity of the TRAP-18”, NCBI, 2020, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149273/

[38] Robin Westman posted a manifesto on YouTube prior to Annunciation Church shooting, KSTP, August 2025, https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/robin-westman-posted-a-manifesto-on-youtube-prior-to-annunciation-church-shooting/

[39] What we know about Minneapolis shooting suspect Robin Westman, USA Today, August 2025, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/crime/2025/08/27/shooter-suspect-minneapolis-mass-shooting/85849795007/

[40] Who is Robin Westman, suspect in the Annunciation Church shooting?, The Minnesota Star Tribune, August 2025, https://www.startribune.com/who-is-robin-westman-suspect-in-annunciation-school-shooting/601462759

[41] @patriottakes, X, August 27, 2025, https://x.com/patriottakes/status/1960758547270263193

[42] What we know about Minneapolis shooting suspect Robin Westman, USA Today, August 2025, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/crime/2025/08/27/shooter-suspect-minneapolis-mass-shooting/85849795007/

[43] Ibid

[44] @Robinw1312, YouTube profile of Robin Westman, accessed through Internet Archive on August 28, 2025, https://web.archive.org/web/20250827160948/https://www.youtube.com/@robinw1312 (This profile has been deleted from YouTube)

[45] @RealAustinAyers, X, August 27, 2025, https://x.com/RealAustinAyers/status/1960749888276468119

[46] What we know about the suspect in the Minneapolis Catholic school shooting, NBC News, August 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/minneapolis-catholic-school-shooting-rcna227591

[47] Assessing the threat of lone-actor terrorism: the reliability and validity of the TRAP-18, Forensische Psychiatrie, Psychologie, Kriminologie, 2020

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149273/

[48] What we know about the suspect in the Minneapolis Catholic school shooting, NBC News, August 2025, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/minneapolis-catholic-school-shooting-rcna227591

[49] Who is Robin Westman, suspect in the Annunciation Church shooting?, The Minnesota Star Tribune, August 2025, https://www.startribune.com/who-is-robin-westman-suspect-in-annunciation-school-shooting/601462759

[50] What to know about Minnesota's red flag law after the Minneapolis Catholic church shooting, ABC News, August 2025, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/minnesotas-red-flag-law-after-minneapolis-catholic-church/story?id=125061771