ENGLAND AND FRANCE SIGNED AN AGREEMENT TO TACKLE CROSS-CHANNEL ILLEGAL MIGRATION, AND IN THE NETHERLANDS, UNKNOWN INDIVIDUALS CUT DOWN BANNERS WELCOMING REFUGEES

April 23-29, 2026 | Issue 17 - EUCOM Team

Nicola Bonsegna, Jaydn Burgin, Sofía Vilas, Fleur Van Gorp, Chiara Michieli

Alexia Andrica, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Migrants at Sea^[1]

Date: April 23, 2026

Location: England and France

Parties involved: UK; UK government; Starmer government; Home Office; center-left party Labour Party; conservative party Restore Britain; conservative party Reform UK; hardline anti-immigration parties; progressive political base; conservative voters; far-right voters; voters; anti-immigration sectors of the public; France; smuggling networks; smugglers; illegal migration networks; irregular migrants; illegal migrants; asylum seekers; relatives

The event: The UK and France agreed on a three-year agreement to reduce irregular migrants’ crossings across the English Channel.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• The UK government will likely attempt to capitalize on the new agreement to gain support among anti-immigration sectors of the public. The Home Office will very likely present the agreement as a cost-effective measure to reduce asylum seekers’ arrivals, appealing to more conservative voters ahead of the May 7 local elections. The adoption of restrictive migration policies has a roughly even chance of partially swaying voters away from hardline anti-immigration parties, such as Restore Britain and Reform UK, while likely alienating their most progressive political base. While the new agreement will very unlikely result in a continued tangible electoral advantage for the Labour Party, there is a roughly even chance that the Starmer government will shift to more restrictive migration policies to overcome persistent divergencies on other policy areas, such as energy and social policies, in the eyes of far-right voters.

• The new agreement between the UK and France will likely have a limited long-term impact on illegal migrant crossings between the two countries, as its border control enforcement measures will unlikely limit migrant smuggling networks. Prioritizing stricter border controls without addressing the underlying migration drivers, like reuniting with relatives or finding better economic perspectives, will unlikely reduce demand for crossings; instead, they will likely increase due to continued demand for smugglers’ assistance and repeated crossing attempts that reinforce smuggling networks. Increased use of patrols, surveillance, and technological tools such as drones will likely incentivize smuggling networks to adapt, very likely shifting toward increasingly dangerous methods, including more remote departure points and smaller, overcrowded vessels, to evade detection and continue facilitating illegal migration. Illegal migration networks will likely become increasingly profitable as restrictions increase cross-channel smuggling value, likely contributing to the development of complex criminal enterprises with greater reach and longevity.

Date: April 26, 2026

Location: Apeldoorn, Gelderland Province, Netherlands

Parties involved: Netherlands; governing coalition; far-right political leaders; center-left liberal Democrats 66 (D66); center-right Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA); center-right liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD); far-right Party for Freedom (PVV); PVV leader Geert Wilders; leaders; political parties; municipal authorities; local authorities; law enforcement; extremist groups; isolated or loosely coordinated actors; unknown individuals; activist group Dolle Mina; asylum seekers; refugees; community; social media; media

The event: Unknown individuals cut down pro-asylum banners placed by Dolle Mina outside a contested refugee shelter meant to house 240 asylum seekers in a vacant school.^[3] 

Analysis & Implications:

• Municipal authorities will likely face increasing difficulty in maintaining public order as local tensions surrounding refugee accommodation intensify. Law enforcement will likely encounter increasing strain in managing simultaneous, geographically dispersed incidents that will likely fragment response capacity and reduce the ability to anticipate and coordinate responses, particularly as opposition becomes more frequent. Deepening societal divisions will likely increase challenges in maintaining public order and implementing asylum policies, as social media amplifies negative perceptions of refugees and asylum seekers, very likely polarizing extremist groups and reducing cooperation with local authorities. Disruptive incidents will likely persist through increased community tensions, very likely creating an unpredictable threat environment in which media-amplified narratives and local grievances prompt isolated or loosely coordinated actors to carry out disruptive actions.

• Far-right political leaders will very likely increasingly exploit incidents of local resistance to asylum reception centers as evidence of wider public dissatisfaction with the national asylum system. Leaders, such as Wilders, will very likely integrate these incidents into their public messaging and push for stricter measures, likely framing the immigration situation as an emergency. There is a roughly even chance that statements will include criticism of asylum-linked legislation, such as the Dispersal Act, to increase pressure on the recently sworn-in governing coalition of D66, CDA, and VVD, likely contributing to the PVV gaining support in municipalities where refugee centers are a perceived contentious issue. Due to political parties’ diverging perspectives on asylum measures’ strictness and internal divisions within the PVV, Wilders’ narrative will unlikely translate into policy outcomes, keeping asylum at the center of public and political debate, recurring in far-right messaging.  

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[1] Haitian Migrant Interdiction, by U.S. Coast Guard Atlantic Area, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)/Department of War (DoW) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD/DoW endorsement)

[2] UK, France agree on three-year deal to curb Channel migrant crossings, France24, April 2026, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260422-uk-france-agree-three-year-deal-to-curb-channel-migrant-crossings 

[3] Dolle Mina's komen op spandoeken met tegengeluid over asielopvang in Apeldoorn, NOS, April 2026 https://nos.nl/artikel/2612083-dolle-mina-s-komen-op-spandoeken-met-tegengeluid-over-asielopvang-in-apeldoorn (Translated by Google)