June 20, 2023
Benedetta Bisaccia, Kyle Dillon, CENTCOM/AFRICOM Team
Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor
Jenin, West Bank, Palestine[1]
Event: On June 19, the Israeli military carried out a raid on a refugee camp in the West Bank city of Jenin, killing five Palestinians and injuring 91 others. The Israeli military reported that seven members of its paramilitary border police and army sustained moderate wounds during the 10-hour confrontation. Media reports indicate that this marked the first instance of a helicopter gunship being employed in the West Bank in approximately two decades. To retaliate, Palestinian militants bombed five armored vehicles, rendering them inoperative, and trapping Israeli troops inside. The Israeli army dispatched additional forces and equipment to evacuate the stranded soldiers. Palestinian officials accused Israel of engaging in an open conflict against the people, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas vowed to make unprecedented decisions during an upcoming emergency meeting.[2] The Israeli military initially entered this camp to arrest two wanted militants and was not necessarily expecting this fierce resistance.[3]
Significance: The Israeli military very likely utilized a helicopter gunship in this raid to strike fear among refugees in this Jenin refugee camp. The disproportionate and advanced weaponry used in this raid by the Israelis will almost certainly inspire violent retaliatory measures from Palestine or Palestinian extremists. This raid will likely increase the radicalization of certain Palestinians who feel peaceful means are ineffective. The Palestinian leadership will likely lack the capability for controlling extremist and lone-wolf threats that could be used to respond to this event. There is a roughly even chance that the Palestinian leadership distances itself from this situation and instead advocates for peaceful protests rather than aggressive retaliatory measures to avoid international scrutiny. The Palestinian international diaspora will likely put efforts forward to influence governments to aid the Palestinian people in this conflict, especially after such a deadly raid. There is a roughly even chance Palestine or Palestinian extremists reach out to the Arab community to provide support against Israel. There is a roughly even chance the fierce response from the Palestinians will discourage Israeli forces from operating in refugee camps or alternatively, will strengthen their raid forces and increase attacks. Israeli forces will almost certainly start preparing for retaliatory measures by Palestinians and will likely provide broader security in tense regions as a preventative measure. There is an almost certain chance that a lack of trust toward Israel will increase among refugees because of these raids, further dividing the region and limiting chances at reconciliation efforts. There is a roughly even chance Israel will no longer be given impunity and be punished by the international community because of these raids that put many civilians in harm's way. Palestinian leaders will likely mobilize diplomatic efforts and international pressure on Israel to address the situation and possibly work to protect refugee camps. There is a roughly even chance regional hospitals will need to ask for humanitarian assistance to account for the consequences of this and potential future raids. The escalation in tensions will likely hinder the ongoing peace negotiations or future prospects for dialogue between the two. There is a likely chance that these civilian deaths, as well as the possibility of continued casualties, will worry the international community as they will discourage peace talks.
Recommendations
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that refugees in the camp stay on high alert for potential future raids and avoid entering dangerous areas that threaten their safety.
CTG recommends that Israelis stay on high alert for possible retaliatory measures from Palestinians.
CTG recommends that Palestine and Israel enter meaningful conversations to possibly curb this violence and end the indiscriminate attacks on refugee camps. CTG recommends that Palestine and Israel should address grievances and negotiate ceasefires to prevent a further escalation of the conflict.
CTG recommends that members of the international community, concerned regional countries, and relevant humanitarian organizations such as UNRWA assist in safeguarding regional refugee camps to better protect civilians and their human rights. CTG recommends the establishment of international monitoring and accountability mechanisms to oversee the situation in the region and ensure compliance with human rights standards.
CTG recommends that, despite the desire for revenge, Palestinian groups resort to peaceful measures to prevent the continuation of these attacks, such as nonviolent protests.
CTG recommends that Israel issue a warning to citizens if they will continue these raids in the future to avoid collateral damage. By providing timely and clear warnings, civilians can take necessary precautions to minimize damage and protect their safety.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-2848 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1] "Jenin Location" by Freedom's Falcon licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.5
[2] Israel Raids West Bank Refugee Camp, Killing 5 Palestinians, Wounding 91, VOA News, June 2023, https://www.voanews.com/a/israeli-troops-backed-by-helicopter-kill-3-palestinians-in-clash-/7143143.html
[3] Fiercest fighting in years erupts in West Bank camp of Jenin, at least 5 Palestinians killed, AP, June 2023, https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-west-bank-f9499fa4013e39e7f3ee9036b35338ce