Date: December 7, 2022
Jan García, Daniel Ruiz, Juliet Sites, Aina Merino Bello, Julia Tsarnas, Jan Garcia SOUTHCOM
Salomon Montaguth, Editor; Shachi Gokhale, Senior Editor
Pedro Castillo sworn in as President of the Republic of Peru[1]
Event: On Wednesday, December 7, Peruvian President, Pedro Castillo, was detained following a congressional dismissal for his announcement of the dissolution of the congressional chamber and the establishment of a government of exception. This announcement intended to establish a coup d’etat. Congress rapidly moved to vote for his impeachment with 101 votes in favor and decreed that Vice President Dina Boluarte will assume the presidency.[2] Boluarte will be the eighth president since 2011.[3]
Significance: Castillo's arrest and attempted coup d'état will very likely continue to deteriorate the political environment in Peru. Castillo's supporters will likely protest against his arrest and rally outside the congressional chamber and the prison where he is incarcerated. Peruvians will likely become less willing to participate in the political system as their confidence in its ability to represent the people will likely lower significantly. The Peruvian national police will likely be deployed in several areas of Lima to prevent altercations and to dissuade demonstrators. The state of exception announced by Castillo will unlikely materialize as the military forces rejected his call and Congress chose a new president. Castillo's arrest and the election of a new president will likely hinder the executive branch's ability to implement projects and policies in the short term. The loss of another president will very likely begin to affect sectors outside the political and social spheres. While the economy has already been affected by the volatility within Congress, social and humanitarian sectors will likely endure negative effects of non-cohesion, very likely causing further deterioration.
Recommendations
The CTG recommends Peruvian Congress keep Boluatre in power unless clear and convincing evidence of corruption does not permit it. This will prevent the establishment of a power vacuum which will detrimentally deteriorate the Peruvian political structure.
The CTG recommends security forces maintain a significant, but not overbearing, presence in Lima and around Castillo’s detainment. This presence should prevent significantly violent protests that may arise following his arrest. The CTG also recommends security forces do not engage in violent aggression toward protesters. Police aggression will very likely incite more violence rather than subdue it.
The CTG recommends Congress quickly resolve the political and social disruptions this event will almost certainly cause. This will allow Peru to recover from the impeachment quickly and prevent additional sectors, such as the economy, to be significantly affected.
If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-248 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
[1] “Pedro Castillo sworn in as President of the Republic of Peru” by Presidencia Peru licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0.
[2] Pedro Castillo: destituyen y detienen al presidente de Perú después de que disolviera el Congreso y anunciara un "gobierno de excepción", BBC, December 2022, https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-63895102 (translated by Daniel Ruiz)
[3] Analysis: Years of political crises in Peru are finally hitting its economy, August 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/years-political-crises-peru-are-finally-hitting-its-economy-2022-08-18/