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Imminent Warning Report: New Russian Offensive EUCOM April 11, 2022

Updated: Apr 15

Date: April 11, 2022

Pètra van de Gevel, Benjamin Brooks, Martyna Dobrowolska, EUCOM Team

Alessandra Ciffo, Hannah Norton, Justin Maurina, Manja Vitasovic, Editors; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff



Map of Ukraine[1]



Event: On April 11 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops for new attacks in the eastern and southern Ukraine. The Maxar Technologies company, which works with the US government, captured satellite images of Russian military vehicles moving toward the Donbas region. Russian forces are also attempting to establish control over Mariupol in the south.[2]


Significance: In the upcoming days, Russia will very likely launch new large-scale offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine, likely to create a land corridor between Crimea and the Russian separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, almost certainly increasing casualties. This will very likely give Russia a strategic advantage to move offensive forces between Russian-occupied regions, likely attempting to control Ukrainian regions close to the land corridor. If Russia takes control of the port city of Mariupol, it would be the first major city captured since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, very likely encouraging Russia to advance further. Controlling Ukrainian port cities will very likely allow Russia to further expand its economic and military interests through access to the Mediterranean. This will very likely increase large-scale offensives against Ukraine, very likely causing combat between Russian and Ukrainian forces. Russia will almost certainly utilize military success to obtain concessions from the Ukrainian government during future ceasefire negotiations. A new Russian offensive will almost certainly urge Ukrainian citizens to flee combat zones, very likely causing a new refugee influx to European countries like Poland.


Recommendations

  • It is recommended the Ukrainian government establishes an evacuation plan for Ukrainian citizens to safely flee potential combat areas and offer aid to citizens attempting to flee active combat zones.

  • It is recommended European and NATO countries continue to provide military assistance to Ukraine if Russia launches an offensive in Ukraine.

  • It is recommended the Ukrainian military sends more troops to its major southern cities such as Odesa to protect its citizens against a Russian attack.

  • It is recommended intelligence services continue to monitor the Russian military movement to ensure the Ukrainian government is prepared for large-scale assaults.

  • It is recommended that governments from countries neighboring Ukraine prepare for a new refugee influx.

  • If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-248 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com

________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)

[1] ‘’Map of Ukraine, with Oblasts, largest cities, rivers and neighboring countries, as well as the disputed areas on the territory of Ukraine, "Republic of Crimea", "Luhansk People's Republic" and "Donetsk People's Republic"’’ by Lencer licensed under Creative Commons

[2] Ukraine Prepares For Large-Scale Offensive As Russia Taps New General To Lead Campaign, Radio Free Europe, April 2022, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-invasion-ukraine-luhansk-dnipro-shelling/31795537.html

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