IN HAITI, CHADIAN TROOPS JOINED A UN ANTI-GANG MISSION, AND IN BRAZIL, A UN RAPPORTEUR PRAISED MIGRATION POLICY BUT URGED COMPLIANCE WITH INTERNATIONAL LAW
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April 2-8, 2026 | Issue 13 - SOUTHCOM Team
Michela Sereno, Julia Ruiz Redel, Dominic Perfetti, Christian Jackson, Sharon Preci, Matthew George, Noah Clarke
Ben Joshua Gentemann, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor
Haiti Gang Influence Map: Overview of Port-au-Prince Neighborhoods[1]
Date: April 1, 2026
Location: Port-Au-Prince, Haiti
Parties involved: Haiti; Haitian government; Haitian National Police; authorities; emergency services; healthcare and emergency responders; public services; armed groups; gangs; public; civilians; displaced population; urban areas; UN; anti-gang task forces; Chadian troops; Chadian security personnel; foreign troops
The event: Chadian troops arrived in Port-Au-Prince as part of a UN-backed anti-gang operation.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The recent deployment of foreign troops in Haiti will likely increase short-term civilian displacement by escalating violence in densely populated urban areas. Anti-gang operations will likely trigger concentrated urban clashes as armed groups resist incursions, likely displacing civilians within the capital and adding another layer of complexity for authorities, as gangs will likely close off safer rural areas or make them too dangerous. These constraints on movement will likely hinder coordination between the Chadian contingents and the Haitian National Police, likely limiting their ability to relocate civilians to safer zones and to establish secure humanitarian corridors. Increased risks for displaced populations will likely amplify humanitarian needs, likely increasing the risk of disease outbreaks in overcrowded urban areas with limited access to water and sanitation, further driving internal displacement.
The arrival of these foreign troops will very likely require the government to divert resources to the anti-gang task force, very likely forcing them to become self-sufficient. As the government prioritizes the task force’s operational and logistical needs, such as securing funding and facilitating personnel deployment, attention will likely diverge from essential public services like healthcare, likely diminishing public confidence. Declining institutional trust will likely reduce public cooperation with state-based aid and security systems, likely deepening the humanitarian crisis as self-reliance becomes civilians’ primary mechanism for preservation. This shift will likely undermine long-term state authority to provide for the public, likely pushing civilians toward informal and parallel systems of support that fragment national cohesion.
The involvement of Chadian security personnel in this crisis will likely cause a greater number of casualties that strain Haiti’s emergency services, limiting long-term institutional resilience. A greater external security presence in Port-au-Prince will likely increase the frequency of violent confrontations, very likely forcing healthcare and emergency responders to operate in increasingly volatile environments. This volatility will likely limit the state’s ability to deliver essential services to civilians, as emergency responders will likely struggle to operate in high-risk areas. Prolonged strain on emergency service systems will likely weaken the state’s ability to sustain effective crisis-response measures, undermining long-term efforts to stabilize security and rebuild institutional resilience.
Date: April 1, 2026
Location: Brazil
Parties involved: Brazil; Brazilian government; population; natives; migrants; immigrants; immigrant communities and centers; immigration personnel; immigration reception facilities; agencies responsible for migration management; foreigners; local community; high-crime communities; Americas; neighboring countries; UN; UN special rapporteur; international courts
The event: The UN special rapporteur praised Brazil’s migration framework while recommending an increase in policy alignment with international law.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The Brazilian government will likely prioritize funding immigration support systems, likely creating instances of physical violence against immigration-related targets. The expansion of agencies responsible for migration management will very likely elevate migrant processing efficiency, likely increasing the overall volume of immigration. Increasing the budget for migration policy, alongside societal factors, such as Brazil’s economic pressures, will likely create grievances among the Brazilian population, likely perceiving increasing migration as a challenge to economic stability. This perception will likely increase hostile public sentiment that will deepen the societal divide between migrants and native Brazilians, very likely discouraging immigrants´ attempts to integrate into Brazilian society. Increased political polarization and anti-immigration ideology will likely mobilize anti-immigrant protests into physical violence against immigration centers and communities, likely increasing pressure on the Brazilian government to alter its immigration policy.
Brazil's lack of total alignment with UN immigration laws, combined with its limited immigration personnel and reception facilities, will likely trigger second migration flows out of Brazil. Social discrimination and limited institutional capacity will likely restrict immigrants' employment opportunities and societal integration with the local community, likely forcing foreigners into living below the socio-economic average and in overcrowded, high-crime communities. These limiting conditions will likely push immigrants to relocate, very likely prompting them to migrate northward and positioning Brazil as the primary driver of the migration flows across the Americas. This dynamic will likely lead neighboring countries to pressure Brazil to implement a stricter migration framework against UN guidance, likely creating human rights concerns and international law violations that prompt a response from international courts.
[1] Haiti gang-related violence map via Google Maps, created by Michela Sereno
[2] First foreign troop in new gang suppression force lands in Haiti to replace previous mission, AP, April 2026,
[3] UN migration rapporteur commends Brazil’s refugee rights framework, presses for fuller implementation, Jurist, April 2026, https://www.jurist.org/news/2026/04/un-commends-brazil-for-humanitarian-migration-practices-calls-for-further-improvement/
