IN INDIA, DURING AN ELECTION CAMPAIGN, BJP AND TMC SUPPORTERS CLASHED, AND IN AUSTRALIA, POLICE OFFICERS FATALLY SHOT A RUNAWAY SOVEREIGN CITIZENS’ MEMBER

March 26 - April 1, 2026 | Issue 13 - PACOM Team

Lucy Gibson, Agathe Labadi, Balraj Rana, Brendan Malcarne, Nimaya Premachandra

Devendra Mahto, Editor; Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Political Rally in India^[1]

Date: March 26, 2026

Location: South 24 Parganas District, West Bengal State, India

Parties involved: Election Commission of India (ECI); Hindu nationalist political party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP); BJP supporters; Bengali nationalist political party Trinamool Congress (TMC); TMC supporters; political parties; law enforcement; law enforcement agencies; law enforcement personnel; Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF); Security Monitoring Cell; police; police officers; local authorities; opposing faction; opposing parties; supporters; firm supporters; radicalized supporters; voters in West Bengal; individuals publicly expressing their political views; public; civilians; women; minorities

The event: BJP and TMC supporters attacked each other and police officers during a BJP election campaign.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• Law enforcement agencies involved in India’s assembly election will likely impose a filming ban during BJP and TMC rallies in West Bengal, aiming to reduce similar incidents. Law enforcement will likely deploy the CAPF and Security Monitoring Cell to enforce the ban and prevent violent escalation, increasing CCTV surveillance capabilities and police presence around prominent polling centers to deter provocative actions from either party. Police surveillance will very likely flag supporters involved in the clashes as persons of interest, very likely restricting their access to local political rallies and monitoring their online activity for signs of organized disruptions and protests. Local authorities have a roughly even chance of providing an official taping of each rally to the public, likely aiming to prevent discontent about the filming ban and reduce pretexts for civilians to clash with opposing parties.

• There is a roughly even chance that the clashes will cause fear among voters in West Bengal and influence their political participation. BJP and TMC supporters who were not involved in the clash will very likely fear future attacks by the opposing party or police crackdowns, likely prompting them to stay home and avoid confrontation. The recent policing mismanagement will likely decrease public trust in the ECI’s law enforcement capabilities, likely reducing voter turnout in the long term, despite an increase in safety measures and law enforcement personnel. A decreased voter turnout will likely incentivize some political parties to instrumentalize fear and coercion to reduce political competition, likely increasing the frequency and intensity of political violence threats throughout West Bengal.

• Political confrontations between the BJP and the TMC in West Bengal will likely grow in size and intensity. The clash between the BJP and the TMC supporters will very likely intensify resentment among them, with their perceived level of threat from the opposing faction and feelings of unjust law enforcement conduct very likely increasing. Some firm supporters of both parties will likely retaliate against one another in symbolic ways, such as vandalizing the opposing party’s logos and election posters, and confronting individuals publicly expressing their political views. There is a roughly even chance that radicalized supporters will assault opposing parties' followers, likely triggering fear among minorities, such as women, discouraging them from voting or participating in politics.

Date: March 30, 2026

Location: Thologolong, Victoria State, Australia

Parties involved: Australian law enforcement;  law enforcement officers; police; police officers; authorities; government institutions; anti-government sovereign citizens movement; sovereign citizens in Australia; members; individuals; sovereign citizen activist Dezi Freeman; other countries; US; local authorities

The event: Police officers fatally shot Freeman, who was on the run since killing two police officers in 2025.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• The sovereign citizens movement will very likely use Freeman’s death as an example of martyrdom to radicalize members, likely increasing acts against authorities as a form of defiance. The sovereign citizens movement will almost certainly portray Freeman’s killing as unjust and condemn police conduct, very likely creating the narrative of law enforcement officers constituting an existential threat to members of the movement. Sovereign citizens in Australia will likely manifest their opposition and advocate for revenge, likely vandalizing police stations, taunting officers, and doxing officers involved in Freeman’s death. Sovereign citizen propaganda fuelled by Freeman’s death will very likely reach other countries with members of the movement, such as the US, likely increasing minor conflicts with local authorities, such as road infractions, and the spread of radicalizing content worldwide.

• Australian law enforcement will very likely increase its surveillance capabilities in the following weeks to protect strategic locations, such as police stations and government institutions. Due to potential protests following the death of Freeman, authorities will likely increase police presence, patrols, and CCTV surveillance to avoid targeted attacks and protest-related disruptions. To prevent violent protests, law enforcement will very likely monitor online extremist discourse and digital footprints of known sovereign citizens members. There is a roughly even chance that increased online monitoring will result in preventive arrests of individuals showing suspect behavior or extremist incitement discourse, with sovereign citizens’ potential reliance on more secretive or different tactics likely challenging law enforcement.

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[1] Political Rally in India, generated by a third party database

[2] BJP, TMC supporters clash in Bengal’s South 24 Parganas; police personnel attacked, The Times of India, March 2026, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bjp-tmc-supporters-clash-in-bengals-south-24-parganas-police-personnel-attacked/articleshow/129829208.cms 

[3] Dezi Freeman killed by police in Victoria's north-east after seven-month hunt, ABC News, March 2026, https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-03-30/dezi-freeman-shot-dead-police-search-victoria/106510112