August 18-24, 2022 | Issue 14 - NORTHCOM
Savannah Fellows, Rhiannon Thomas, Daniel Brown, NORTHCOM Team
Valentina Topatigh, Salomon Montaguth, Editors; Demetrios Giannakaris, Senior Editor
Twitter Logo[1]
Date: August 18, 2022
Location: Florida, USA
Parties involved: Former State house candidate Luis Miguel; Twitter moderators; Facebook-parent Meta Platforms Inc.; Federal officials; US citizens; US Government
The event: Miguel has been banned from Twitter following a post advocating for violence against federal agencies and officials. Miguel’s Facebook and Instagram pages have also been deleted due to violating their policies.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
The removal of Miguel’s accounts will very likely incite public discussion surrounding freedom of speech and expression, almost certainly focusing on their ability to criticize government officials and agencies. Social media posts will likely be removed, with a roughly even chance of citizens joining alternative social media platforms with more lenient content policies, like Telegram and Gab. Other political candidates like Miguel will almost certainly join alternative platforms, likely to continue encouraging violent acts online to further their political agenda.
There is a roughly even chance that people viewing Miguel’s posts will be encouraged to act violently against federal agencies, very likely increasing threats against government officials throughout the US. Threats will almost certainly raise feelings of insecurity among federal agencies, likely creating a demand for increased security at government buildings and straining law enforcement. Government agencies will very likely employ private security and intelligence contractors to mitigate incoming threats and increase overall protection.
Date: August 19, 2022
Location: Mexico City, Mexico
Parties involved: President Andres Manuel Obrador; Former Attorney General Jesus Murillo; Mexican government officials; Mexican law enforcement; Mexican gang members; Mexican residents
The event: Murillo was arrested on charges of forced disappearance, torture, and obstruction of justice in the abduction and disappearance of 43 teachers in training who went missing in 2014. After the arrest, 83 arrest orders were released for people in local, state, and federal positions who were working with gang members, with the disappearances labeled as a "state crime."[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The case is very likely mismanaged due to the involvement of corrupt government officials, likely hindering an objective investigation. Mexican citizens will very likely lose confidence in government officials, almost certainly demanding that corrupt officials involved are held responsible. Citizens will very likely pressure President Obrador to support the investigation, with social unrest likely if the investigation remains incomplete.
The arrest orders will almost certainly expose corrupt officials, some of whom were very likely involved with local gangs. Gangs will very likely retaliate against those involved in the investigation, almost certainly creating an unsafe environment resulting in casualties among government officials, security personnel, and Mexican residents. Residents who do not have financial means to migrate have a roughly even chance of seeking protection from gangs to ensure their safety.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
[1] “twitter-bird-blue-on-white” by Prachatai licensed under Public Domain
[2] Fla. state House candidate banned from Twitter for suggesting violence against federal officials, The Hill, August 2022, https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/3608998-fla-state-house-candidate-banned-from-twitter-for-suggesting-violence-against-federal-officials/
[3] Mexico arrests former top prosecutor in 2014 missing students case, Reuters, August 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexican-officials-arrest-former-attorney-general-murillo-media-2022-08-19/