April 21-27, 2021 | Issue 5 - CENTCOM
Giorgio Tiberio, Marco Parks, Alberto Suarez Sutil, Muskan Muskan, CENTCOM Team
Hannah Norton, Editor; Demetrios Giannakaris, Senior Editor
Pakistan Army Corps of Military Police under attack in Karachi[1]
Date: April 23, 2022
Location: North Waziristan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Parties involved: Pakistani Military; Pakistan government; Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP); Afghan Taliban (the Taliban); unidentified militants
The event: Militants in Afghanistan opened fire at a Pakistani military outpost in the North Waziristan district, killing three soldiers. Pakistani troops retaliated by attacking the perpetrators across the border, killing several terrorists during the clash. No armed group in Afghanistan has taken responsibility for the assault.[2] On April 16, 2022, the Pakistan government conducted airstrikes targeting TTP’s hideouts in Afghanistan’s border provinces of Kunar and Khost, killing 47 people.[3] TTP is the largest militant organization in Pakistan, seeking to overthrow the Pakistani government. In November 2021, the Pakistan government banned TTP and forced it to move its operational bases to Afghanistan.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
Pakistan's recent airstrikes on the Kunar and Khost provinces likely prompted the Taliban to support the TTP in this attack. Pakistan is unlikely to pursue a containment strategy through dialogue due to increasing attacks and the Taliban’s support of TTP. Pakistan will likely retaliate with cross-border military actions, using aerial surveillance and UAVs. Civilian collateral damage within Afghanistan will very likely increase, leading to further tensions between the two countries.
TTP will likely carry out similar actions around Sunday, May 1, which signifies the end of Ramadan, as it is very likely that Pakistani security measures will be relaxed to celebrate the holiday. Isolated military outposts and units on patrol will very likely be targeted with IEDs. There is a roughly even chance that Pakistan’s armed forces will be unable to provide immediate support, likely due to the difficulty in accessing isolated military outposts in the rugged terrain of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. Pakistan will very likely strengthen its military presence in this province, likely conducting further strikes against TTP along the border.
Date: April 24, 2022
Location: Cairo, Egypt
Parties involved: King of Jordan Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein; Crown Prince of Jordan Al Hussein bin Abdullah; President of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi; Crown Prince of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan; Israeli government; Middle Eastern and North African countries (MENA); Russia; Ukraine
The event: Abdullah Il bin Al-Hussein and Al Hussein bin Abdullah traveled to Cairo for trilateral talks with Sisi and Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed.[5] The talks focused on the recent increase in violence between Israelis and Palestinians in Jerusalem and Al Aqsa Mosque, emphasizing the need to cease violations of Jewish or Muslim religious sites. They also exchanged views on the war in Ukraine, expressing their concern over the worsening food insecurity and economic difficulties, calling for an urgent political solution.[6] MENA countries heavily depend on food and energy imports from Russia and Ukraine.
Analysis & Implications:
The UAE’s peace agreement with Israel, the Abraham Accords, will likely incentivize the UAE to work with Israeli allies such as Jordan and Egypt towards de-escalating the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians. Talks between Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE are likely to preserve the current Israel-Palestine borders, likely signifying a shift in strategic priorities away from Palestinians. Arab states will likely leverage their remaining domestic Palestinian support to preserve the status quo, likely demonstrating their commitment to a strategic alliance with Israel. This meeting likely signifies mutual interest between Israel, Jordan, Egypt, and the UAE in countering Iranian influence in the region.
MENA nations are very likely to witness food insecurity and economic difficulty, likely increasing social unrest. Social unrest will likely lead to protests in major MENA capital cities. These talks will likely assist Arab nations in enhancing cooperation to reduce dependence on European countries for agricultural and energy imports, likely minimizing the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the region.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
[1] “Pakistani Military” by Voice of America licensed under Public Domain
[2] Pakistan army post attacked by fighters from Afghanistan, Al Jazeera, April 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/23/pakistan-army-post-attacked-by-fighters-in
[3] 'Pakistan air strikes' kill at least 47 in Afghanistan, officials say, The National News, April 2022, https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/2022/04/18/pakistan-air-strikes-kill-at-least-47-in-afghanistan-officials-say/?msclkid=8971fd88c53f11ec829c640f1671fec8
[4] Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, Center for International Security and Cooperation, 2022, https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/tehrik-i-taliban-pakistan#text_block_19701
[5] Jordanian king heads to Cairo for trilateral talks with UAE, Egypt, Reuters, April 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/jordanian-king-heads-cairo-trilateral-talks-with-uae-egypt-royal-court-2022-04-24/
[6] Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed visits Egypt for talks with El Sisi and King Abdullah of Jordan, The National, April 2022, https://www.thenationalnews.com/uae/2022/04/24/sheikh-mohamed-bin-zayed-meets-egypts-el-sisi-in-cairo/