PIRATES BOARD A TANKER OFF THE COAST OF SOMALIA AND BOKO HARAM AND ISWAP FIGHT OVER STRATEGIC LAKE CHAD BASIN ISLANDS

November 6-12, 2025 | Issue 43 - CENTCOM/AFRICOM Team

Farah Birch, Cora Jordan, Giovanni Lamberti, Amelia Bell, Ludovica Leccesse, Amelia Bell, Benjamin Baruch, Meaghan Mackey

Elizabeth Fignar, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor

Maritime Security^[1]

Date: November 6, 2025

Location: Off the coast of Somalia

Parties involved: Somalia; Somali pirates; Houthis; piracy groups

The event: Somali pirates board a merchant tanker off the coast of Somalia.^[2]  

Analysis & Implications: 

• The Indian Ocean will very likely see a resurgence of Somali piracy attacks, likely signaling a sophistication in their operational capabilities. Armed robbery at sea will very likely increase as pirates will seek to seize larger skiffs, dhows, and fishing boats, likely indicating their capacity to sustain longer and more coordinated operations. By reinforcing their motherships and coordination, they will very likely exploit the security vacuum created by attention diverted to other routes such as the Red Sea, to increase their attacks. The recent successful hijackings will very likely boost their morale, likely encouraging pirates to escalate to more intense and simultaneous hijackings to portray a renewed consolidated presence.

• As cargo ships will likely reroute from the Red Sea because of the Houthi threat, piracy will likely see an increase in recruitment in Somali waters due to lucrative gain. The expanding opportunity for piracy attacks, due to increased maritime traffic and valuable shipments, will very likely drive piracy groups to recruit and exploit individuals looking to make money. The increase in piracy attacks will almost certainly result in an influx of illicit earnings, which will negatively impact the economy by diverting resources away from legitimate sectors, inflating wages in illegal activities, and avoiding tax revenues that could be used to fund development and public services. This almost certainly further exacerbates the cycle of poverty and increases the attractiveness of piracy.

Date: November 10, 2025

Location: Abadam and Kukawa Local Government Areas, Borno State, Nigeria

Parties involved: Nigeria; Chad; Nigerian government; Chadian government; jihadist militant group Boko Haram; Salafi jihadist militant group The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP); local fishermen; local exporters; cross-border traders

The event: Security experts claim that Boko Haram is defeating ISWAP in recent clashes over strategic Lake Cha island locations.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• Boko Haram will very likely try to leverage its presence on these islands to profit from local economies, likely prompting the Nigerian and Chadian governments to limit maritime trade activities in Lake Chad and deteriorating local economies. Boko Haram will very likely impose taxes on local fishermen and cross-border traders to raise capital, likely pushing bordering states like Nigeria and Chad to ban fish exports and fuel transportation in Lake Chad. These bans will likely force local fishermen and exporters from other Lake Chad islands to  rely on Boko Haram’s illicit trade markets to sustain their income, almost certainly reducing profit and driving  price spikes across the Lake Chad region.

• Boko Haram will almost certainly continue to target ISWAP’s illicit armed trafficking networks in Borno State, likely to counter ISWAP's growing influence in the Lake Chad Basin. The group will very likely use any acquired strategic islands to establish their own weapon stockpile facilities, likely allowing Boko Haram to control future weapons and ammunition supply lines into other Nigerian regions. Boko Haram will very likely use these newly acquired illicit armed trafficking routes to obtain drone capabilities through smuggling practices in the Lake Chad Basin, very likely allowing the group to gain similar tactical capabilities as ISWAP. Critical regional roads such as the Kukawa-Kauwa Border Road and the Monguno-Kauwa road will very likely be used to expand weapons trafficking into other parts of Borno State, allowing Boko Haram to advance regional capabilities.

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[1] Maritime security, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[2] Suspected pirates board merchant vessel off coast of Somalia, Africanews, November 2025,

https://www.africanews.com/2025/11/06/suspected-pirates-board-merchant-vessel-off-coast-of-somalia/ 

[3] Over 100 terrorists dead as Boko Haram engages in fierce battle against ISWAP, DailyPost, November 2025, https://dailypost.ng/2025/11/10/over-100-terrorists-dead-as-boko-haram-engages-in-fierce-battle-against-iswap-video/