POLISH AND US PRESIDENTS DISCUSSED POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED MILITARY PRESENCE IN POLAND AND THOUSANDS OF IRANIANS GATHERED IN BRUSSELS TO PROTEST EUROPEAN LEADERS TAKING A STRONGER STANCE ON ON IRAN

September 4-10, 2025 | Issue 34 - EUCOM

Chiara Michieli, Alix Mermet, Martina Lopez Hernandez, Jose Antonio Heras Luna, Mireia Fonseca Claparols, Indira Hankins, Cristina Calvo

Katrina Bustillos, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor

US Military Equipment Arrives in Poland^[1] 

Date: September 4, 2025

Location: Poland

Parties involved: Poland; Polish President Karol Nawrocki; Polish government; Poland’s Law and Justice Party; Polish citizens; US; US President Donald Trump; MAGA movement; Visegrad Group; Russia; media outlets associated with the Kremlin; social media accounts associated with the Kremlin; Belarus; EU; European Council; NATO

The event: Nawrocki and Trump agreed on the possibility of reinforcing the US military presence in Poland.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• The renewed partnership will very likely result in Russia and Belarus seeking to undermine Poland's public support for the US and NATO military presence in the country. They will likely react to Poland’s increased military role within NATO through information manipulation and interference, and the leveraging of migration across the border with Belarus. Kremlin-linked outlets and social media accounts will very likely spread conspiracy theories to intensify public fears, almost certainly weakening trust in the Polish government and NATO. Russian and Belarusian officials will very likely frame the increased presence of US military forces as a threat to the stability of the region and Polish citizens with a roughly even chance of protests erupting over the Polish government’s policies.

• There is a roughly even chance that Poland’s strengthened military ties with the US will challenge NATO’s internal cohesion, particularly on matters relating to defense spending and strategic focus. The emergence of a Washington-Warsaw alignment within the Alliance will very likely create an exclusive diplomatic channel to justify the US military presence in Poland. This will likely lead to rising tensions within the Alliance and shift NATO’s focus from countering Russia to managing internal political divergences, likely centering on broader disagreements over strategic priorities and democratic values. 

• The close relationship between Poland’s Law and Justice Party and the MAGA movement will very likely continue to be a key factor in Polish-US relations, likely reinforcing the nationalist position within Poland’s domestic politics. This will likely strengthen the Euroskeptic^[3] positions within the EU, with a roughly even chance of politically isolating Poland in high-level debates within the European Council. Such Polish alignment with the MAGA movement will, with a roughly even chance, make Polish policy reliant on shifting US domestic politics, hampering a strong Polish influence outside the EU.

Date: September 7, 2025

Location: Brussels, Belgium

Parties involved: European Parliament (EP); informal EP inter-group, Friends of a Free Iran; Members of the European Parliament (MEP); European leaders; European citizens; coalition of Iranian dissident groups National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI); Iran; People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI); Iranian protesters; Western political actors; media; high-profile international figures

The event: Thousands of Iranians gathered in an NCRI-organized protest in Brussels to urge European leaders to adopt stronger measures against Iran.^[4]

Analysis & Implications:

• The NCRI will very likely leverage momentum from the Brussels protests to intensify its cross-party lobbying efforts in the EP. The NCRI will likely seek to expand support by strengthening ties with MEPs across political groups and, by very likely increasing the activity of the informal inter-group Friends of a Free Iran through events and conferences. The NCRI's agenda will likely gain traction in EU debates on restrictive measures against Iran, with a roughly even chance of increasing divisions among members in sanctions and diplomatic discussions. Cross-party lobbying will very likely enable the NCRI to maintain visibility across election cycles in the EP, likely reducing its vulnerability to shifts in political leadership and ensuring continuity for its political agenda.

• The participation of high-profile international figures at these rallies will almost certainly enhance the NCRI and PMOI’s claims to legitimacy as a viable democratic alternative to Iran’s ruling regime. Their presence will likely reinforce perception of an alignment between Western political actors and an organized NCRI, amplifying the opposition’s profile on the global stage. Iranian protesters will likely employ historically based symbolism venues such as the Brussels’ Atomium landmark to project messages of European unity and internationalism, very likely resonating with European citizens. Sustained international attention through increasing media coverage will very likely help the opposition shape international discourse on Iran’s internal politics.

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[1] 21st TSC facilitates first RSOM operations of 2025, by Spc. Samuel Signor, licensed under Public Domain (The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD endorsement.)

[2] Trump Tells Nawrocki US Ready To Bolster Forces In Poland, With Eye On Russia, RFE/RL, September 2025, https://www.rferl.org/a/nawrocki-trump-poland-ukraine-nato-troops-russia/33520960.html

[3] “Euroskepticism, European political doctrine that advocates disengagement from the European Union (EU). Political parties that espouse a Euroskeptic viewpoint tend to be broadly populist and generally support tighter immigration controls in addition to the dismantling or streamlining of the EU bureaucratic structure.” https://www.britannica.com/topic/Euroskepticism 

[4] Thousands Protest In Brussels Against Iranian Government, Eurasia Review, September 2025, https://www.eurasiareview.com/07092025-thousands-protest-in-brussels-against-iranian-government/