April 10- 13, 2022 | Issue 3
Alyssa Schmidt, Benjamin Maher, Megan Bilney, Emergency Management, Health, and Hazards (EMH2) Team
Léopold Maisonny, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff
Sri Lanka Hospital[1]
Date: April 10, 2022
Location: Sri Lanka
Parties involved: Sri Lanka; President Gotabaya Rajapaksa; The Sri Lanka Medical Association (SLMA); Sri Lankan residents; Hospitals; Medical personnel; China; The International Monetary Fund (IMF); Tourists
The event: Hospitals in Sri Lanka have been experiencing power outages and depletion of resources which led to protests in the capital, Colombo. The lack of medical supplies and medication led to the postponement of non-emergency surgeries. The country is in $51 billion USD of debt following the pandemic.[2] Sri Lanka requested assistance from China and funding from the IMF to buy essential goods.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The postponing of elective surgeries and medical services will likely lead to more severe medical needs and longer wait times. It is unlikely that an influx of medical supplies will successfully mitigate the scarcity of resources created by the current crisis. Sri Lanka is likely to become reliant on foreign aid for medical services and infrastructural growth, likely increasing national debt and long-term dependency. Reliance on other countries is likely to have long-term financial burdens and impact Sri Lanka’s ability to remain self-sufficient in medical operations.
The request for assistance will very likely increase foreign involvement through aid and financing. Foreign assistance is likely to be limited due to the crisis in Ukraine. If other states and international organizations assist, it will very likely result in changes to Sri Lanka’s economy. Medical services will likely receive short-term supplies while business interests are likely to receive long-term support that is mutually beneficial for the foreign states and organizations, likely to increase stress on the healthcare system.
The ongoing protests over the lack of resources and the recent resignation of cabinet members are likely to lead to violence and increased distrust in the government. If individuals believe that the government does not have power, they will likely seek guidance elsewhere, such as from terrorist groups. Increased deployment of security personnel and focus on protests are likely to increase illicit activity and violence unrelated to the resource crisis. Tourists will likely feel unsafe traveling to Sri Lanka if there is an uptake of instability, likely further impacting the current economic crisis.
Date: April 11, 2022
Location: Dahej, Gujarat, India
Parties involved: India; Om Organic manufacturing plant; Dahej police; Dahej emergency responders; Dahej residents
The event: A blast at Om Organic manufacturing plant in the Dahej industrial area has killed six people and released Acetyl Chloride and Benzotrichloride into the air. The cause of the incident is unknown, but a fire occurred a few minutes before the explosion.[4] The location of the explosion is not in a concentrated area, with Om Organic having two neighboring companies.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
The chemicals from the blast are very unlikely to have long-term impacts on humans but are likely to have short-term impacts. If the chemical vapors spread and come into contact with humans, it will very likely cause severe irritation and burns. These burns will almost certainly require medical attention and put further pressure on medical services dealing with a multitude of crises, including COVID-19.
If the investigation finds the cause of the explosion, it will likely result in nationwide investigations of manufacturing plants, likely impacting industry standards. Increased scrutiny of manufacturing plants will likely lead to fines and closures, likely resulting in employee lay-offs and increased pressure on national employment and welfare services. It is unlikely that chemical and petrochemical manufacturing production in India will significantly decrease and affect Indian exports, but the economic stability of India is likely to decrease, due to the increased unemployment.
The explosion will likely require an investigation into the long-term impacts on biodiversity. The impacted wildlife will likely cause local populations reliant on fishing and natural resources to examine secondary options. Consumption of infected animal products is very likely to cause illness, particularly among the low socio-economic population who are likely to catch wildlife to supplement their food supply.
Date: April 11, 2022
Location: Somalia
Parties involved: Somalia; Somali government; Somali healthcare system; international aid agencies
The event: Over six million people in Somalia are at risk of famine, with Somalia experiencing severe drought. Food and water prices have significantly increased from the drought and conflict in Somalia, with production and transport costs rising due to the cost of fuel. Children are severely malnourished as it has become difficult to obtain necessities.[6]
Analysis & Implications:
The increased food and water prices will very likely increase poverty and malnutrition deaths, likely increasing illegal activity so individuals can meet their basic needs. As individuals try to increase their income to afford essentials, piracy and kidnapping of fishermen will likely increase in Somalia, with increased recruitment and expansion of crime groups. Due to COVID-19 and the conflict in Ukraine, regional cooperation and funding to reduce piracy and kidnapping will likely decrease. The lack of focus on piracy and kidnapping will very likely result in organized crime groups exploiting the region for trafficking routes and carrying out crime within this area due to the low cost and high profit of these crimes.
As instability and violence increase in Somalia, vulnerable civilians will likely migrate to safer regions outside the country. The migration of individuals is likely to cause mass displacement and increased pressure on the services of neighboring countries, particularly Kenya and Ethiopia, as displaced individuals will likely require employment, medical, housing, and education services. Regions with an influx of Somali migrants will likely experience increased unemployment, poverty, and illicit activity, such as black markets and trafficking crimes.
________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
[1] “05810023” by IAEA Imagebank licensed under Creative Commons
[2] Crisis-hit Sri Lanka nearly out of medicine, doctors warn, France24, April 2022, https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220410-crisis-hit-sri-lanka-nearly-out-of-medicine-doctors-warn
[3] Sri Lanka hopeful for $2.5bn rescue loan from China, Al Jazeera, April 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/4/12/sri-lanka-hopeful-for-a-2-5bn-rescue-loan-from-china
[4] Six killed in chemical factory blast in Gujarat, The Times of India, April 2022, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/six-killed-in-chemical-factory-blast-in-gujarat/articleshow/90788569.cms
[5] “Om Organic Dahej” by Google Maps
[6] Somalia Key Message Update: Soaring food prices and delayed rains increase humanitarian needs amid a Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5), Reliefweb, April 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/somalia-key-message-update-soaring-food-prices-and-delayed-rains-increase#:~:text=The%20severity%20of%20food%20insecurity,%2C%20water%2C%20and%20fuel%20prices.