Week of Monday, March 14, 2022 | Issue 64
Federica Calissano, Martyna Dobrowolska, Pètra van de Gevel, Benjamin Brooks, EUCOM Team
Léopold Maisonny, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff
Video Games Players[1]
Date: March 14, 2022
Location: Global
Parties involved: The International Monetary Fund (IMF); The UN; Russia; Ukraine; The World Bank; Ukrainian farmers; The World Food Programme (WFP); Ukrainian families
The event: The IMF stated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in global food insecurity and the World Bank warned against people hoarding food and gasoline. The WFP warned that not only Ukrainian families will be impacted by the war.[2] As Russia and Ukraine both account for roughly 29% of the global wheat export market, the inability of Ukrainian farmers to plant crops will almost certainly disrupt the supply chain, especially in Europe.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Russia’s war with Ukraine will almost certainly continue to result in rising food and gas prices, almost certainly generating turmoil among citizens. European citizens will almost certainly start stockpiling their food supply in the fear of limited food imports. If governments fail to ensure enough food supplies for their population, protests will very likely erupt against gas and food price increases and food shortages. This will very likely result in dissatisfaction with the government, likely decreasing its support among the domestic population.
Citizens worldwide will likely experience difficulties with buying basic necessities as a result of Ukraine’s inability to supply wheat. The number of people who will die of famine will very likely increase if no food assistance can be provided by the WFP.
Date: March 14, 2022
Location: Bari, Italy
Parties involved: Four Albanian citizens; Bari Police; Italian law enforcement; Albanian law enforcement; Albanian government; Italian government; Prisoners; Radicalized groups; Albanian communities in Italy
The event: The Italian police arrested four Albanian citizens suspected of financing terrorism. The group was sending money to assist an extremist imam, who is in prison in Albania. The arrested possessed ISIS propaganda translated into Albanian. Although most Albanians are secular Muslims, a minority has become radicalized in recent years.[4] More than half a million live in Italy, representing one of the largest immigrant diasporas within the country.[5]
Analysis & Implications:
This event will likely encourage Albania and Italy to strengthen cross-border intelligence sharing. By developing stronger cooperation, the two countries will very likely be able to better identify, prevent, and address radicalization and terrorism financing. This will also likely allow Albanian and Italian law enforcement to identify the root causes of radicalization among the Albanian diaspora in Italy and to address them with adequate countermeasures.
Prison radicalization will likely increase in Italy, as those imprisoned on terrorism charges will very likely meet individuals with similar ideologies, likely mixing their beliefs and developing more extreme ideologies. This will likely enlarge radicalized groups, increasing their influence within prisons. The presence of more networks will likely enable radicalized groups to spread their ideologies outside prisons through their friends, family members, and other inmates who leave prisons, very likely gaining more followers willing to support terrorist activities.
Date: March 17, 2022
Location: England
Parties involved: English children; The Assistant Commissioner for the Metropolitan Police, Matt Jukes; The Metropolitan Police
The event: English children from middle-class backgrounds are being drawn to right-wing extremism via online content. Matt Jukes noted that 19 out of 20 children who were arrested for terrorism offenses were arrested for right-wing extremism. Violent video games are also used to lure children, particularly boys, into right-wing extremism.[6]
Analysis & Implications:
Violent video games, coupled with right-wing extremist content, are likely desensitizing children, likely making them more open to extremist ideology. This will likely lead to an increase in children leaning towards right-wing extremism as they will likely share the video games among friends. The newly radicalized children will likely target other children as they likely are the most accessible group.
If more children are exposed to right-wing extremist content, such as conspiracy theories, online racial abuse from radicalized children will likely increase. Racially motivated attacks will likely increase, as children will likely replicate the extremist ideologies. These attacks will likely continue if online extremist content continues to reach children as it almost certainly reinforces their extremists views.
________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
[1] ‘’Video Games Players’’ by włodi licensed under Creative Commons
[2] Russia's invasion of Ukraine drives global food insecurity, Deutsche Welle, March 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/russias-invasion-of-ukraine-drives-global-food-insecurity/a-61124764
[3] How a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the ‘breadbasket of Europe,’ could hit supply chains, CNBC, February 2022, https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/23/impact-of-russia-ukraine-on-supply-chains-food-metals-commodities.html
[4] Italy Arrests Four Albanian Terrorism Suspects in Bari, Balkan Insight, March 2022, https://balkaninsight.com/2022/03/14/italy-arrests-four-albanian-terrorism-suspects-in-bari/
[5] New Engagement Opportunities for Albanian Diaspora in Italy, IOM, May 2018, https://www.iom.int/news/new-engagement-opportunities-albanian-diaspora-italy
[6] Far right ‘mimicking video games to lure middle class children to terrorism’, The Guardian, March 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/mar/17/far-right-mimicking-video-games-to-lure-middle-class-children-to-terrorism