Security Brief: SOUTHCOM Week of December 6, 2021

Week of Monday, December 6, 2021 | Issue 53

Leidy Castellanos, Benedetta Piva, SOUTHCOM Team

Peruvian President Pedro Castillo[1]

Date: December 8, 2021

Location: Peru

Parties involved: Peruvian President Pedro Castillo; Perú Libre Party; Avanza País Party; Fuerza Popular Party; Renovación Popular Party; Peruvian congress; Peruvian citizens

The event: President Pedro Castillo of Peru has avoided impeachment proceedings called by three right-wing parties, Avanza País, Fuerza Popular, and Renovación Popular. On December 8, after 76 votes against, 46 votes in support, and four abstentions, the resolution to proclaim the president permanently morally incapable was defeated in Congress.[2] President Castillo's credibility was called into question by an investigation into alleged government meddling in military promotions, which resulted in a request for his impeachment.[3] If Castillo had lost the vote for his impeachment, he would have had to appear in front of the plenary to present his resignation.[4]

Analysis & Implications:

• The call for President Castillo's impeachment likely indicates an increase in disputes between right- and left-wing political parties in Peru. The Marxist Party that brought him into power, Perú Libre, opposed the motion, which very likely indicates an ongoing disruption to democracy through institutional crisis and a continuous struggle between parties. Further disruption to Peruvian politics will likely lead to a rise in political polarization, likely leading to clashes among citizens. Violence against individuals or groups with opposing political views is likely.

• As a result of this failed impeachment process against the current president, protests will very likely take place in different parts of Peru as a sign of disapproval of the alleged corruption within the government. Protests will very likely cause COVID-19 cases to increase due to the agglomeration of people in the streets without the necessary protective measures to avoid contagion.

• The impeachment vote against President Castillo will likely affect his popularity amongst citizens and lead to political uncertainty. President Castillo's popularity is likely to continue to fall amidst Peru's political crisis, which could have economic and social effects, such as a lack of investment and lack of trust in the government.

• Political turmoil will very likely continue to affect the way the COVID-19 pandemic is handled due to Peru’s lack of institutional transparency, including the institutions that provide health services. This lack of transparency will likely result in many not adhering to COVID-19 precautions. This will likely lead to higher transmission rates and increased hospital cases, further exacerbating the country’s uncertain social and economic situation.

________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)

[1] “Peruvian President Pedro Castillo” by Casa Rosada licensed under Creative Commons

[2] Peru's Castillo fends off Congress impeachment vote amid protests, Reuters, December 2021, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/perus-castillo-braces-impeachment-vote-protests-brew-2021-12-07/

[3] Peru president Castillo avoids impeachment attempt, Al Jazeera, December 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/8/peru-president-castillo-avoids-impeachment-attempt

[4] The Peruvian Congress debates the opening of an impeachment trial for President Pedro Castillo, Today in 24, December 2021, https://today.in-24.com/News/698579.html