SHOOTING OF A SCHOOL TRANSPORTATION EMPLOYEE IN ECUADOR AND PRO-PALESTINIAN ATTACK USING IMPROVISED WEAPONS INJURES MORE THAN 12 IN COLORADO

Senior Editor
2 days ago
4 min read

May 29-June 4, 2025 | Issue 20 - NORTHCOM and SOUTHCOM Teams

Katya Burklin, Jacob Robison, Julia Eder, Kseniya Luzhko, Tate English

Radhika Ramalinga Venkatachalam, Senior Editor

Damaged Vehicle[1]

Date: May 29, 2025

Location: Manta, Manabi Province, Ecuador

Parties involved: Ecuadorian government; school transportation employee Fabián Peralta Chávez; Ecuadorian school transportation drivers; Ecuadorian private security firms; Ecuadorian educational institutions; Ecuadorian groups from lower socioeconomic backgrounds; Ecuadorian parents; Ecuadorian children; Ecuadorian citizens

The event: Chávez was shot and killed while dropping off children for school.[2]

Analysis & Implications:

School transport drivers and educational institutions in Manta will likely adopt self-defense mechanisms in response to the perceived failure of state protection. As trust in public security institutions deteriorates, drivers and institutions will likely feel increasingly compelled to seek immediate protection through untraditional or private means, such as private security. As this privatization trend continues to grow, it will likely normalize individualized responsibility for safety, shifting the burden of protection from the state to citizens. This trend will almost certainly degrade state authority over public safety, fostering unequal protection and reinforcing long-term instability.
The targeted car attack will likely compel parents to change their children’s educational pathways, likely disproportionately affecting lower socioeconomic groups through disrupted schooling. Parents with limited financial capacity will unlikely relocate to safer school neighborhoods such as Remigio Crespo, likely withdrawing children from school as a protective measure and resorting to irregular at-home learning. Such homeschooling, lacking supervision and digital learning resources, will unlikely meet formal education standards, likely resulting in reduced opportunities for children to access higher education and well-paying employment. This educational disparity will likely entrench cycles of socioeconomic inequality, likely leaving a new generation of Ecuadorians financially and socially excluded while weakening their prospects for economic independence and upward mobility to escape poverty.

Date: June 1, 2025

Location: Boulder, Colorado, USA

Parties involved: USA; US government; US law enforcement agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); US law enforcement; pro-Palestianian advocates; extremist private security organization Israel Now; other extremist private security organizations in the US; walking organization raising awareness for Israeli hostages, Run for Their Lives; pro-Palestinian perpetrator Mohamed Sabry Soliman; potential extremist perpetrators

The event: Soliman used multiple improvised weapons, including Molotovs, to commit a pro-Palestinian terrorist attack, injuring between 12 and 15 members of the Run for Their Lives walking group.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

The attack will likely bolster government support for Jewish vigilantism, likely discouraging pro-Palestinian advocates from organizing and attending protests. Organizations such as Israel Now will likely seek increased funding and support from the US government, almost certainly citing rising antisemitic violence to justify expanding protective operations. Pro-Palestinian protesters will very likely perceive heightened security activities such as online surveillance, campus and neighborhood patrols, and firearms training as methods of intimidation that aim to suppress their ideology. This intimidating environment will likely cause pro-Palestinian protesters to self-censor and withdraw in fear of targeted harassment campaigns and public identification, very likely indirectly undermining the right to peaceful protest.
This event will likely increase the risk of similar attacks using non-traditional methods that are difficult for law enforcement agencies to detect, including makeshift weapons. The successful use of unregistered and homemade weaponry such as Molotov cocktails will likely show potential perpetrators that these improvised, low-budget weapons can still cause significant harm, likely motivating them to engage in similar attacks. Law enforcement, including the FBI, will very likely struggle to detect and deter these improvised weapon attacks, as perpetrators who lack ties to terrorist organizations or formal combat training will more likely evade suspicion and bypass traditional detection methods such as firearm background checks. Increasing the use of less traceable methods, such as the manufacturing of 3D-printed weapons, will likely hinder the FBI’s preventative capabilities, likely leading to additional perpetrators exploiting the vulnerability to execute further attacks.

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[1] Recently attacked car in Ecuador, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[2] Asesinan a conductor que se dedicaba a transporte escolar en Manta: un estudiante resultó herido, El Universo, May 2025, https://www.eluniverso.com/noticias/seguridad/asesinan-a-hombre-que-hacia-transporte-escolar-en-manta-nota/ (translated by Google)

[3] What we know about the man charged in the attack in Boulder, Colorado, AP, June 2025, https://apnews.com/article/boulder-terror-attack-colorado-c90a20758b3ebee597c84eb296e44e91