THREAT ASSESSMENT: NATO SUMMIT IN THE HAGUE INCREASES RISK OF PROTESTS, CYBER ATTACKS, AND INSUFFICIENT LAW ENFORCEMENT CAPACITY IN MAJOR DUTCH CITIES

Sue Friend, Lucy Gibson

Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

June 18, 2025

 NATO Emblem[1]

Summary        

The NATO Summit will almost certainly attract thousands of visitors to the Hague and increase the risks associated with large events and big crowds, such as protests, mass attendance, and interruptions of service in the Hague. The comprehensive security plans for the Hague will make it unlikely to carry out complex and widespread terrorist attacks, with the most likely threats coming from protests, lone actors’ actions, and cyber operations. Other cities in the Netherlands, such as Amsterdam and Rotterdam, have a roughly even chance of becoming the focus of small-scale protests and violent actions to bypass the Hague’s police presence. Residents of the Hague and nearby areas will very likely avoid crowded and heavily secured areas, likely causing economic repercussions on local businesses during the Summit days and contributing to the criticisms against the NATO Summit.

Main Event

NATO Summit:[2]

• When: June 24-25, 2025

• Where: World Forum, The Hague, Netherlands

• Who: Approximately 9,000 individuals will attend the Summit, including about 45 heads of state and government from the 32 NATO members and partner nations. The event will bring together 45 foreign ministers and 45 defense ministers. In total, around 6,000 delegates from different countries will be present, along with 2,000 journalists from the Netherlands and abroad.

Related Events

NATO Public Forum:[3]

• When: The NATO Public Forum will take place on June 24-25, 2025, running alongside the NATO Summit. Organizers will offer programming on the day before the Summit begins.

• Where: The forum will take place in The Hague. While the event welcomes up to 500 invited guests in person, anyone interested can join the discussions online from anywhere in the world.

• Who: Experts, politicians, opinion leaders, civil society organizations, and representatives from various sectors. The audience spans all ages and backgrounds, inviting anyone interested in peace, security, and resilience to take part in the conversation. NATO and the Dutch government, in partnership with the Netherlands Atlantic Association, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies (HCSS), and the Clingendael Institute, organize the forum. International think tanks will contribute, joining heads of state, government leaders, foreign ministers, and defence ministers on stage. The event features interactive sessions and open discussions, enhancing both in-person and online participants’ engagement with the summit’s key themes and global security developments.

Logistical Challenges

The NATO Summit will face several logistical challenges, especially for a medium-sized city like The Hague, which has about half a million residents.[4] Logistical challenges will likely emerge, especially regarding the availability of high-security accommodation for the heads of state attending the Summit, as they will almost certainly require rooms and hotel buildings with tight security controls, multiple entrances, and enhanced room configuration. The accommodation of international delegations, security personnel, and journalists will place significant pressure on hotel capacity in The Hague and surrounding cities[5]. The expected hundreds of journalists will require dedicated press facilities and secure access to the Summit venue, including mandatory accreditation and security screening.

Similar requirements will likely create a bottleneck for secure transport options, with special arrangements such as secure convoys and restricted access routes for Summit participants. This may cause disruptions to public transport and local traffic due to the shutdown of major roads and the congestion during the Summit’s opening and closing times. From Sunday, 22 June to Thursday, 26 June, motorists traveling between Amsterdam, The Hague, and Rotterdam should expect severe disruptions due to temporary and partial closures of major motorways (A4, A5, A44, N44, and N14). Regional and local roads in and around The Hague, Wassenaar, Katwijk, Noordwijk, Haarlemmermeer, Leiden, and Rotterdam will also experience closures and disruptions. Key thoroughfares such as Johan de Wittlaan have been closed since April and will remain inaccessible until early August to facilitate summit preparations and security installations. Emergency services will retain access to secondary roads to ensure response capability during the Summit period.[6]

While national trains will run on their regular schedules, they will be more crowded than usual. Trams and buses in The Hague will generally maintain their normal schedules, except for lines that pass through the secured area around the World Forum, which will be closed off. Authorities may suspend some lines, and increased crowding will occur as travelers shift from disrupted road routes to public transport. Significant flight delays will limit the operations at Schiphol airport, as runway closures for very important person (VIP) jets reduce capacity by up to 25%.[7] Airlines like KLM have already warned about the Summit's impact on flights.[8]

Local businesses and residents will experience disruptions related to road closures, security zones, and increased police presence. The municipality is communicating with affected parties to minimize inconvenience. In particular, businesses in the Scheveningen area expressed concerns regarding the difficulties in reaching the beach and the resulting expected decline in profit during the Summit.[9]

Security Measures

Dutch authorities released information regarding their security plan, although they will almost certainly withhold from the public detailed security measures. To ensure the Summit is minimally disruptive, national and local agencies such as the National Counterterrorism and Security Coordinator (NCTV), police, Royal Marechaussee, Ministry of Defense, and the municipality of The Hague will cooperate, with additional support coming from ministries, municipalities, provinces, Rijkswaterstaat, hotels, Schiphol, and transport companies. Preparations include NCTV-coordinated scenario exercises for cyber threats, espionage, sabotage, digital disruptions, and large-scale unrest. Risk management guides all security efforts, with technology and equipment deployed on land, sea, and air. Authorities have enforced drone bans near the World Forum.

Cybersecurity receives special focus, as NCTV warns of potential disinformation targeting citizens and media. Regarding physical presence, police deploy about 27,000 personnel, using layered security measures that intensify closer to the summit venue. Police stations will remain open for incident handling and routine services. The central government stated that, should a calamity happen somewhere else in the country, national preparedness is organised for this. National police reserves are ready for emergencies elsewhere in the country.

The Royal Marechaussee secures Schiphol Airport and supports public order with 9,000 extra services, including specialists and security teams. Defense contributes 5,000 personnel under Operation Orange Shield, providing air, land, and sea security, cyber expertise, and explosive ordnance disposal. The municipality of The Hague tailors safety measures to limit disruption, consults stakeholders, and ensures demonstrations can occur near the summit, with larger protests at designated locations.[10]

Assessments

GEOINT

World Forum Area, with Relevant Locations Highlighted[11]

Major Streets and Highways Affected by the Summit, Highlighted[12]

Ministries, University Campus, and Government Buildings Around The Hague Central Station[13]

Potential Grievances and Protest Motives

Due to its political and military nature, it is almost certain that the Summit will attract the attention of several activists and protesters. Some civilians will almost certainly recognize the Summit as a symbol of the wider Western world and make it a target of anti-Western or anti-American actions. NATO members’ reactions to conflicts such as the one in Ukraine, the West Bank, and Congo will very likely constitute significant grievances for some civilians, making protests and activists’ demonstrative actions very likely.

Physical Threat Assessment

There is a roughly even chance that the tight presence of law enforcement will discourage lone actors from planning major attacks, likely making attempts at entering the Summit premises, sit-ins, mass gatherings, and exposure of flags in front of politicians the main disruptions. Organized terrorist jihadist and extremist anti-Western cells have a roughly even chance of planning sophisticated attacks involving improvised explosive devices (IEDs), vehicle-ramming, and shootings, though the Dutch police will be on high alert and will be monitoring Persons of Interest (POI) ahead of the Summit to prevent these attacks.

Crowd-related incidents are likely, as thousands of citizens and journalists will almost certainly gather around the Summit premises, likely increasing stampedes risks. In case of rising tensions in the crowd, for example due to political slogans or protest actions, participants will likely panic and attempt to leave the area, fearing an escalation of violence or disproportionate police response. Despite the police’s measures to control the crowd and plan escape routes, there is a roughly even chance that some individuals will join the crowd with easily-retrievable weapons such as knives, or large-scale weapons like IEDs and illegally obtained guns. The identification of armed individuals in the crowd will very likely cause panic and require a prompt police response to prevent escalations.

Cyber Threat Assessment

The deployment of law enforcement in the physical locations of the Summit will likely lead radical and extremist groups to attack via cyber means. Key websites such as the Hague’s municipality website, the Summit’s and NATO pages, and NATO members’ national governments will have a roughly even chance of becoming targets of web defacement campaigns or distributed denials of service (DDoS) to prevent users from accessing them. The platforms used by the Summit organizers and those used for internal communications between Summit attendees will very likely suffer attempts at network infiltration, ransomware, and unauthorized data export. A manipulation or exfiltration of Summit information will likely compromise security plans by leaking accommodation, travel, and personal information of heads of state and their delegations. Broader cyber attacks affecting the entire country will become more likely during the Summit, such as attempts at disrupting key public transport by targeting the networks of Schiphol airport, the Nederlands Spoorwegen (NS) train company, and the Haagsche Tramweg-Maatschappij (HTM) bus company of the Hague. Attacks on these targets will very likely aim at stopping operations in the Netherlands rather than stealing data for economic gain, making tactics such as DDoS and trojan horse attacks more likely than ransomware.

Security Response 

The collaboration of several security agencies will likely curb any imminent threat to the Summit participants, making less sophisticated and less harmful events such as protests more likely. The widespread presence of law enforcement and the precautionary closure of several routes will almost certainly enhance the Summit’s security while leaving some residents and commuters disgruntled. The securitization of the Hague will likely make some citizens feel alert and anxious more than reassured, with the confusion in the city center very likely enhancing the level of perceived threat. Threat actors will likely attempt to leak the details of security plans through social engineering and cyber attacks, very likely aiming to sell operational information to extremist groups.

Alternative Threat Targets

The special attention of the media and law enforcement on the Hague will likely open an opportunity for attacks elsewhere in the country, likely aiming to exploit the reduced police presence in other major cities such as Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and Utrecht. Protests will have a roughly even chance to arise in these cities to elude the police presence and restrictions of the Hague, with protesters likely targeting major highways, airports, and government buildings that are less secured. Major protests or unrest in other cities will likely overwhelm security forces, despite the police’s security plans, including this scenario. Secondary transport hubs such as the Rotterdam and Eindhoven airports will likely tighten their security measures and increase random checks of individuals to identify potential threats.

Recommendations

• The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that the Summit’s security task force communicate in advance expected disruptions to allow residents to plan accordingly.

• Security officials should refrain from publishing detailed information on the Summit’s attendees, accommodation, and schedule to prevent targeted attacks.

• Law enforcement officers should closely monitor the Summit premises at all times, regardless of the attendees’ presence in the building or the apparent lack of bystanders.

• Summit attendees, including heads of state, their delegations, and related figures such as translators, should not post information on social media regarding their live location and plans.

• Dutch citizens should refrain from travelling to the Hague unless necessary to avoid crowding the limited public transportation system and preventing crowd management issues in the city.

• Residents of the Hague should limit their mobility throughout the city, especially in the neighborhoods bordering the World Forum, for example, by working remotely during the Summit days and running secondary errands in the days before the Summit.

• Citizens in the Hague at the time of the Summit should immediately warn a law enforcement official or call emergency services if they identify suspicious behavior or movement around the World Forum, law enforcement stations, or crowded areas.

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[1] NATO, generated by a third party database

[2] NATO Summit 2025 in The Hague, Government of the Netherlands, 2025, https://www.government.nl/topics/nato-summit-2025/nato-summit-2025-in-the-netherlands 

[3] NATO Public Forum, Government of the Netherlands, 2025, https://www.government.nl/topics/nato-summit-2025/nato-public-forum 

[4] Total population of The Hague from 2009 to 2023, Statista, 2025,  https://www.statista.com/statistics/753256/total-population-of-the-hague/ 

[5] Veiligheid NAVO-top 2025, Government of the Netherlands, 2025, https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/navo-top-2025/veiligheid-navo-top-2025 (Translated by Google)

[6] NAVO-top 2025: gevolgen voor het wegverkeer, Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, 2025, https://www.rijkswaterstaat.nl/wegen/verkeersinformatie-en-werkzaamheden/navo-top (Translated by Google)

[7] Provisional runway maintenance schedule 2025, Schiphol Airport, October 2024, https://www.schiphol.nl/en/you-and-schiphol/news/provisional-runway-maintenance-schedule-2025/

[8] Travel alerts and disruptions, KLM, https://www.klm.com/information/travel-alerts?srsltid=AfmBOooiqQ20tc93H3Mm1-HF5hLP6g-VeQQLqqQvcopR3G6AsZCLrelD 

[9] Den Haag vesting tijdens Navo-top, maar er is ook goed nieuws: het strand blijft deze keer gewoon open, Algemeen Dagblad, May 2025, https://www.ad.nl/den-haag/den-haag-vesting-tijdens-navo-top-maar-er-is-ook-goed-nieuws-het-strand-blijft-deze-keer-gewoon-open~a5e4c732/ (Translated by Google)

[10] Tientallen organisaties werken samen aan veilige NAVO-top, Government of the Netherlands, May 2025, https://www.rijksoverheid.nl/onderwerpen/navo-top-2025/nieuws/2025/05/06/tientallen-organisaties-werken-samen-aan-veilige-navo-top (Translated by Google)

[11] World Forum via Google Maps, created by CTG member

[12] The Hague via Google Maps, created by CTG member

[13] The Hague city center via Google Maps, created by CTG member