June 2-8, 2022 | Issue 10 - EUCOM
Benjamin Brooks, Martyna Dobrowolska, Pètra van de Gevel, EUCOM Team
Hannah Norton, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff
Severodonetsk under attack
Date: June 2, 2022
Parties involved: Russian government; Russian military; Russian soldiers; Russian-backed separatist groups; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; Ukrainian government; Ukrainian military; Ukrainian civilians
The event: Zelensky announced that Russia controls a fifth of Ukrainian territory and that it intensified military attacks on the city of Severodonetsk in the eastern Donbas region. The Ukrainian military is proceeding with counterattacks, trying to push back the Russian military.
Analysis & Implications:
Russian-backed separatist groups from the Donbas region will almost certainly fight alongside the Russian military, likely allowing Russia to achieve strategic success in gaining control of Severodonetsk in a few weeks. The Russian government will very likely feel encouraged to continue war efforts in Ukraine if it gains control over Severodonetsk, very likely investing more in military equipment and trained manpower, which will very likely prolong the war in Ukraine. With more trained soldiers, the Russian military will very likely continue intensifying military attacks to gain control of the Donbas region, likely challenging Ukrainian counteroffensives.
The Ukrainian military will almost certainly intensify counterattacks to prevent Russia from gaining more Ukrainian territory. It is very likely than an increase in Russian military attacks will impede Ukrainian citizens’ evacuations. Civilian infrastructures, such as bus and train stations, will very likely be targeted by Russian soldiers, almost certainly increasing casualties. Peace talks between the Russian and Ukrainian governments will unlikely happen soon, as Ukrainian citizens will almost certainly be at risk.
Date: June 3, 2022
Parties involved: Cyprus; Cyprus’ Interior Minister Nicos Nouris; Greece; Spain; Italy; African and Middle Eastern migrants; the collection of European countries that border the Mediterranean Sea, MED9 Group; far-right groups
The event: Nouris warned that Europe’s southern countries such as Greece, Spain, Italy, and Cyprus could face over 150,000 migrant arrivals this year from Africa and the Middle East. Tens of thousands of migrants have already arrived in the MED9 countries. This migration is caused by food shortages as a result of the war in Ukraine.
Analysis & Implications:
Xenophobic hate crimes will very likely increase in the countries that receive an influx of migrants, very likely fueled by political rhetoric from far-right groups. Migrants will likely face discrimination, such as when applying for jobs, as they attempt to assimilate to their new country. Unrest between the native and migrant populations will very likely increase, likely leading to violent clashes between the two groups during potential anti-migrant protests. Law enforcement will very likely increase their resources in areas where many migrants settle to counter these potential clashes.
The MED9 countries will almost certainly struggle to provide aid to the African and Middle Eastern migrants as these countries are almost certainly focusing their relief efforts on helping Ukrainian civilians. The MED9 countries will very likely also face food shortages as a result of the war in Ukraine, unlikely to provide enough food for the surplus of migrants. Malnourishment among the migrants will likely increase, especially for those unable to create an income for themselves, such as children or the elderly. As food will very likely become more scarce, people will likely begin to stockpile food, almost certainly causing further food shortages, likely leading to civil unrest caused by protests and food riots.
________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
 Europe's south expects over 150,000 migrant arrivals this year, minister says, Reuters, June 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/europes-south-expects-over-150000-migrant-arrivals-this-year-minister-2022-06-04/