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EMH2 3D Report

Team: EMH2

Week of: April 5, 2021

This week has reported a global increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths, despite efforts of vaccination campaigns. The spike in cases suggests that further preventive measures are likely to be reintroduced to combat further virus outbreaks. Slowed rollouts and suspensions suggest that countries are not on target to meet their vaccination goals and are set to implement tighter restrictions to combat the spread of the virus. The USA has seen a surge in COVID-19 cases, identifying new variants in Michigan and California. The EMH2 team will continue to monitor the vaccination campaigns across the world to assess the effectiveness along with tracking the spread of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and variants around the world, specifically within the USA.

Global Vaccination Campaigns[1]


  1. What threats has your Team detected this week? What level is the threat (Imminent, Critical, Ongoing, Developing, Concerning)? Finally, why is this entry significant (just write a sentence or two)?

  • Emergency Management

  • COVID-19

  • April 9, 2021, New Zealand on Thursday temporarily suspended entry for all travelers from India, including its citizens, for about two weeks following a high number of positive coronavirus cases arriving from the South Asian country. The move comes after New Zealand recorded 23 new positive coronavirus cases at its border on Thursday, of which 17 were from India.[2] Developing

  • Analysis: Without these stricter travel controls, New Zealand could see an increase in cases, which in turn, could lead to more fatalities. Consideration must be made to the transmission of new variants, which could cause an outbreak of a new or more infectious strain of COVID-19. New variants have the potential to cause another outbreak, meaning preventative restrictions, such as regional-wide lockdowns, would have to be reintroduced. Vaccination effectiveness against new variants would need to be reviewed, delaying ongoing rollouts and/or effectiveness of the ones already distributed. If alternative vaccinations need to be created, this could set back the progress of countries in combating COVID-19.


  • Surge in COVID-19 Cases

  • April 5, 2021, India’s daily COVID-19 cases soared by 103,558 on Monday, the biggest such daily increase, data from the health ministry showed, taking the total to 12.59 million. The country added 478 new deaths, raising the total to 165,101.[3] Ongoing

  • April 5, 2021, New cases of COVID-19 in the United States rose 5% to more than 450,000 last week, the third week in a row that infections have increased, according to a Reuters analysis of state and county data. The average number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals rose 4% to more than 37,000 in the week ended April 4, breaking a streak of 11 weeks of falling admissions. Health officials have expressed concerns about the increase in travel around the Easter holiday and school spring breaks, at a time when more infectious variants of the coronavirus are circulating.[4] Ongoing

  • April 6, 2021, Brazil’s brutal surge in COVID-19 deaths will soon surpass the worst of a record January wave in the United States, climbing well beyond an average of 3,000 fatalities per day, scientists predict, as contagious new variants overwhelm hospitals. Brazil’s overall death toll trails only the U.S. outbreak, with nearly 333,000 killed, according to Health Ministry data, compared with more than 555,000 dead in the United States. But with Brazil’s healthcare system at the breaking point, the country could also exceed total U.S. deaths, despite having two-thirds the population, two experts told Reuters. [5] Ongoing

  • April 7, 2021, The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases in San Carlos City hit 163 on Tuesday, with many coming from Barangay Guadalupe, where choir members had tested positive for the virus. There will, however, be no lockdown in the city, said San Carlos Mayor Renato Gustilo. The mayor attributed the surge in COVID-19 cases in San Carlos to the new national government policy that does not allow a swab test on arriving passengers.[6] Ongoing

  • April 7, 2021, Another 334 new Covid-19 cases have been reported, 327 local infections and seven imported, raising the total to 29,905. The figure was up on the 250 new cases announced on Tuesday, a 33% increase. Apisamai Srirangson, the assistant spokeswoman for the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration, said on Wednesday that 174 new cases were confirmed at hospitals on Tuesday, and 153 were detected through mass testing.[7] Ongoing

  • April 7, 2021, Ten new Covid-19 clusters were detected in Selangor, Penang, Sarawak, and Johor, making a total of 1,431 active clusters nationwide, while another 10 clusters have been declared ended. Health director-general Tan Sri Dr. Noor Hisham Abdullah said 64 clusters reported new cases today, within two new clusters and one existing cluster recording the highest Covid-19 figures.[8] Concerning

  • April 7, 2021, Osaka Prefecture declared a medical state of emergency Wednesday as its medical system strained to handle a rapid rise in coronavirus cases, including a large number involving variant strains. The declaration came the same day Osaka reported a record 878 cases. Neighboring Hyogo Prefecture, meanwhile, saw a record 328 cases.[9] Concerning

  • April 7, 2021, A total of 86 COVID-19 deaths and 5,232 virus cases were recorded in the Kingdom on Wednesday, increasing the caseload to 650,681, the government announced. The new fatalities took the Kingdom’s coronavirus death toll to 7,469 according to a joint statement issued by the Prime Ministry and the Ministry of Health.[10] Concerning

  • April 7, 2021, As coronavirus appears to be in decline in Israel, in the Gaza Strip the pandemic has seen a dramatic surge, with a record number of new daily cases diagnosed in the Palestinian enclave on Tuesday. Gaza's Health Ministry reported on Wednesday that 1,916 new coronavirus cases have been diagnosed a day earlier out of only 5,000 tests conducted.[11] Concerning

  • April 7, 2021, A new analysis from the International Rescue Committee (IRC) finds that COVID-19 cases and deaths have increased significantly across many conflict and crisis-affected countries over the past month. Kenya, Venezuela, Yemen, Ethiopia, and northeast Syria saw average daily case increases of 322%, 91%, 379%, 289%, and 529% respectively between early and late March.[12] Concerning

  • April 11, 2021, Iran reported 258 deaths from COVID-19 in the past 24 hours, the health ministry said on Sunday, the highest daily toll since early December. That brings the total number of fatalities from the coronavirus to 64,490 in Iran, the worst-hit country in the Middle East.[13] Concerning

  • April 11, 2021, India has banned the export of antiviral drug remdesivir and its active pharmaceutical ingredients as demand rocketed amid a record surge in COVID-19 infections and led to shortages in many parts of the country. New daily infections surged to 152,879 on Sunday, the sixth record rise in seven days, overwhelming hospitals in some regions. India, known as the pharmacy of the world, has already stalled major exports of coronavirus vaccines.[14] Concerning

  • April 11, 2021, Iraq’s coronavirus deaths increased by 35 as the daily confirmed cases rose by 6,791, the health ministry said on Sunday. This brings the caseload across the country’s provinces, including the Kurdistan Region, to 924, 946 as the death toll hit 14, 713, a ministry statement read. On the other hand, a total of 814, 853 people were cured of the virus.[15] Concerning

  • April 11, 2021, A total of 82 new COVID-19 cases were registered in Afghanistan over the past 24 hours, bringing the total number of the cases in the country to 57,242, the Public Health Ministry said in a statement on Sunday. The statement said that eight patients died over the period, bringing the number of COVID-19 related deaths to 2,529 since the outbreak of the disease in February 2020 in the country. A total of 27 patients recovered over the past 24 hours, bringing the number of recovered ones to 51,989 in the country.[16] Concerning

  • April 11, 2021, Pakistan has extended coronavirus restrictions till April 13 as the country is witnessing a surge in Covid-19 cases with over 5,000 cases reported on Sunday. According to a statement released by Pakistan’s National Command and Operation Centre (NCOC), the country’s government has decided to extend coronavirus restrictions in place till April 13, Pakistan’s Dawn reported.[17] Concerning

  • April 11, 2021, Lebanon registered 31 new coronavirus-related deaths and 2,213 cases in the last 24 hours, the Health Ministry said Sunday, as the country prepared to tighten restrictions for the holy month of Ramadan.[18] Concerning

  • Analysis: This week has seen a global increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths, despite ongoing preventative strategies and vaccination rollouts. The increase in cases suggests that selected countries could be heading into another wave of the virus, prolonging lockdowns and travel restrictions. The number of deaths is continuing to rise and leading to hospitals becoming overwhelmed and further prevention measures revised and implemented in a bid to reduce the growing statistics. Additionally, new variants are emerging, indicating that the virus will continue to mutate as long as there is sustained transmission. A resurgence in cases could allow for deadlier variants to emerge, highlighting the importance of continued individual and institutional precautions until herd immunity is reached.

COVID-19 Vaccinations

  • April 7, 2021, Bhutan on Wednesday (Apr 7) said it had given about 60 percent of its entire population the first jab against COVID-19 since the Himalayan kingdom started an ambitious vaccination drive nine days ago. The tiny nation wedged between India and China told AFP that 470,000 people out of 770,000 in total had been administered the first shot of a two-dose regime of the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine donated by India.[19] Developing

  • April 8, 2021, The Philippine health department suspended on Thursday (Apr 8) the use of the AstraZeneca COVID-19 jab for people under 60 after reports of blood clots overseas, in a setback for the country's already slow vaccine rollout. It comes amid a record surge in coronavirus infections that has forced more than 24 million people in the capital and surrounding provinces into a lockdown.[20] Ongoing/Concerning

  • April 8, 2021, Indonesia's health minister said on Thursday (Apr 8) the schedule for about 100 million doses of AstraZeneca's COVID-19 vaccines faced delays, as an official warned that supply issues could hamper the country's inoculation program. Health minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin told a parliamentary hearing that Indonesia would receive 20 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine via a bilateral deal in 2021, instead of the 50 million doses initially agreed.[21] Ongoing/Concerning

  • Analysis: As vaccination rollouts continue worldwide, this week saw an increase of 5% of the world's population vaccinated. Some countries are on track to meet their goals, whereas others are experiencing further difficulties such as delays with production and administration. It is likely that delays to vaccination campaigns will rely on alternative measures to be reintroduced, such as lockdowns, wearing of face masks, and social distancing. Experts have identified that the current vaccinations may not work as well against the P.1 and B.1.135 variant, which is likely to see alternative vaccinations in the future. If the current vaccinations remain delayed, or countries experience slower rollouts, this suggests that if an alternative vaccination for the newer variants is discovered, it is likely distribution of this one will be paused until the first vaccination campaigns have been completed. This pause could not only cause higher cases and deaths but allows windows of opportunity for further mutations, repeating the cycle of mutated variants and vaccination effectiveness. If the rollouts were to run consecutively, demand would likely increase and cause additional stress to administration strategies and plans. This could mean that some people may not receive the most effective COVID-19 protection.

COVID-19 Variants

  • April 8, 2021, The British variant of coronavirus is 1.32 times more infectious than the original virus, a Japanese study has found. The study by Japan’s National Institute of Infectious Diseases, which covered 803 cases of the British variant, compares with overseas studies that found the variant’s infectivity is 43% to 90% higher than the original’s. According to the Japanese institute, the variant’s effective reproduction number, or the average number of infections from a carrier of the variant, came to 1.23 for a period between February and late March, against the original’s 0.94.[22] Ongoing

  • Analysis: Research has uncovered that the British Variant (B.1.1.7) is highly infectious and may cause the carrier to be severely ill. The South African Variant (B.1.351) is also highly infectious but the severity of the disease is less than that of B.1.1.7. Finally, the Brazilian Variant (P.1) has the highest rates of reinfection. New variants pose further concerns such as an increase in cases and deaths, along with the effectiveness of the current preventative measures and vaccinations. As mutations are beginning to spread worldwide, it is very likely that further virus outbreaks will occur. As most countries are on target for populations receiving the vaccination, it is likely that other methods will still need to be implemented to combat new variants.


  • Adverse Weather

  • April 5, 2021, Twenty people have died in East Timor from the impacts of a tropical cyclone that hit the tiny Southeast Asian nation and surrounding islands in neighboring Indonesia, an official said on Monday. “According to preliminary data, ... the total loss of life is 21 people,” Main Director of Civil Protection, Ismael da Costa Babo, told reporters. He said more than 1,500 people have been evacuated to shelters in the capital Dili.[23] Ongoing

  • April 5, 2021, A new storm system is moving from the Rockies into the Plains and the South on Monday through Wednesday with damaging winds, large hail, and tornado threats. Severe weather is expected on Monday for the Upper Midwest in North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin where damaging winds and large hail will be the biggest threat. On Tuesday, another storm will move out of the Rockies and drive south into the southern Plains and parts of the Deep South with a threat for damaging winds, tornadoes, and large hail.[24] Developing

  • April 5, 2021, A drone discovered a possible second breach in a large Florida wastewater reservoir as more pumps were headed to the site to prevent a catastrophic flood, officials said Monday. U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, a Republican, toured the area by helicopter Monday and said federal resources were committed to assisting the effort to control the 77-acre (33-hectare) Piney Point reservoir in Manatee County, just south of the Tampa Bay area.[25] Developing/Concerning

  • April 6, 2021, Rescuers were searching for dozens of people still missing after floods and landslides swept away villages in Indonesia and East Timor, killing more than 150 people and leaving thousands more homeless. Torrential rains from Tropical Cyclone Seroja turned small communities into wastelands of mud, uprooted trees, and sent around 10,000 people fleeing to shelters across the neighboring Southeast Asian nations. Indonesia's disaster management agency said it had recorded 130 deaths in a cluster of remote islands near East Timor, where another 27 have been officially listed as dead.[26] Ongoing

  • April 10, 2021, At least two people have died in storms in the southern United States, authorities said on Saturday, as strong winds toppled trees, flipped vehicles, and smashed homes and other structures across several states. A 27-year-old man was killed in St Landry Parish, Louisiana when a tornado struck a home, local television news outlet KLFY reported on Saturday. Seven other people were also injured, and several vehicles were damaged by the high winds.[27] Developing

  • April 10, 2021, Authorities in Western Australia were urging residents of its Mid-West coast to find safe shelter or leave on Saturday as cyclone Seroja barrelled towards a coastal region that is usually too far south to fall in the path of cyclones. Residents in Western Australia’s Mid West and Gascoyne regions are being urged to finalize their emergency plans, as the cyclone is expected to intensify to a category three overnight, battering a region where buildings are not made to withstand cyclonic winds. “This is a very serious situation. The potential for widespread devastation is high,” state Emergency Services Minister Fran Logan said on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC).[28] Developing

  • April 10, 2021, Eight miners have been rescued and 21 remain trapped in a coal mine that flooded in northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, the state-backed newspaper China Daily reported on Sunday citing local authorities. The accident occurred on Saturday evening when 29 miners were working at the mine in Hutubi county, in the Changji Hui autonomous prefecture, the report said. Rescue work is underway, the newspaper said.[29] Ongoing

  • Analysis: A series of adverse weather events occurred around the world in the last week. Cyclones and flooding have increased since the previous week, causing concern for the welfare of populations. With fatalities occurring, weather predictions and forecasts are being monitored to assess if and where emergency management controls need to be implemented to preserve life and decrease the consequences of further adverse weather. Springtime brings climate changes that often create conditions prime for fire and heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding. High winds in the Mid to Northwest, the USA coupled with dryer climates could trigger wildfires and their rapid spread.


  • April 10, 2021, A magnitude 5.9 earthquake off Indonesia’s Java island on Saturday killed one person and damaged buildings in several cities, media reports said. The quake was felt in cities and towns across East Java, home to 40.7 million people, and nearby provinces, including the resort island of Bali, Indonesian media reported. One person died in Lumajang after being hit by a falling boulder, news website said, citing a town disaster official.[30] Developing

  • Analysis: An earthquake on Java Island has caused one fatality and property damage. The earthquake had a magnitude of 5.9 and spread over 40.7 million homes. Further earthquakes are not expected, but the situation is being monitored over the coming days.


  • April 11, 2021, People who ignored an initial warning to evacuate the area closest to a volcano on the eastern Caribbean island of St. Vincent raced to get clear Saturday, a day after it erupted with an explosion that shook the ground, spewed ash skyward, and blanketed the island in a layer of fine volcanic rock. Scientists warn that the explosions could continue for days or even weeks and that the worst could be yet to come.[31] Ongoing

  • Analysis: A volcano in St Vincent has erupted causing explosions and earthquakes like tremors. Those who ignored the warnings have fled to safety, with further eruptions and secondary impacts likely. The volcano is being monitored for further activity.


  • April 6, 2021, Amid the raging Rohingya deportation controversy, more than two dozen shanties were gutted in a major fire at a slum housing Rohingya Muslims. No one has been reported injured in the fire. The incident took place at the outskirts of Jammu on April 5.[32] Ongoing

  • Analysis: A fire within Jammu has raised safety concerns for the Rohingya population. Over the past weeks, fires have occurred in Rohingya villages and refugee camps causing mass damage to homes and shelters. Further investigation is essential to find the cause, and assess if the fires are accidental or arson attacks.

2. What threats have been ongoing for your Team over the last 2-3 weeks?

  • As of April 12, 2021, there have been 136,141,318 reported cases of COVID-19 across the world. The following countries have had the most reported cases:

    • USA = 31,198,232

    • India = 13,527,717

    • Brazil = 13,482,023

    • France = 5,119,590

    • Russia = 4,597,400

  • The UK has now remained out of the top five counties for three weeks, suggesting that they are successfully curbing case counts.

  • Globally, 152,681 have died from COVID-19 over the past two weeks, bringing the total number of deaths to 2,938,333. The following countries have had the most deaths due to COVID-19, including the number of additional deaths over the past two weeks:

    • USA = 562,066 (+12,731)

    • Brazil = 353,137 (+40,931)

    • Mexico = 209,338 (+7,715)

    • India = 170,179 (+8,336)

    • The United Kingdom = 127,331 (+441)

Countries with populations > 1 million experiencing the highest number of deaths due to COVID-19[33]

  • Countries with populations < 1 million experiencing some of the highest number of COVID-19 deaths are Gibraltar (D = 2791), San Marino (D = 2530), and Montenegro (D = 2186).

  • This past two weeks, North Macedonia has seen an increase in deaths, despite not ranking in the top 5 for new cases. This correlation suggests that more people are dying from the virus, opposed to contracting COVID-19. This could be due to testing deficiencies, such as not being tested; introduction of long COVID-19, where people are suffering from symptoms for longer, leading to secondary health issues; and/or existing cases where people are not recovering.

  • For the past two weeks, Czechia has remained the number one country with the most deaths/1 million population from the virus, suggesting they could be experiencing difficulties with treating and combating the transmission of COVID-19. COVID-19 restrictions may need to be revised to tackle the increasing death rate.

  • More than 781 million COVID-19 vaccination doses have been administered around the world, which equates to 5.1% of the global population.[34]

  • COVID-19 mutations are an ongoing threat that the team has been monitoring and must continue to do so over the coming weeks. This week existing variants, along with new strains of COVID-19 have been discovered in the USA, Brazil, Thailand, and India.

B.1.1.7 = UK Variant , P.1 = Brazilian Variant , B.1.351 = South Africian Variant, B.1.429 = California Variant, B.1.617 = Double Mutant

  • As of April 12, 2021, most states in the USA have experienced the first cases of the UK Variant, highlighting its rapid spread. The South African and Brazil variants have been slower to reach each state, but there is still evidence of sustained transmission. Additionally, the California Variant, which is not designated as a “Variant of Concern” by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), is still spreading, although rather slowly. While this week saw the least amount of first instance cases due to new variants, rising case numbers suggest that the virus is continuing to spread.


Imminent: This threat is credible and an event or attack will occur or is occurring. All necessary teams and leadership are on high alert.

Critical: This threat is credible and an event or attack may occur. All necessary teams are on high alert.

Ongoing: This threat is not new, but it is important to keep watching. Report any new findings to the necessary teams.

Developing: This is a new threat. We need to check all sources to make sure they are credible. Report the credible sources to the necessary teams.

Concerning: This might become a new or reemerging threat. We need to check all sources to make sure they are credible. Report the credible sources to the necessary teams.

you to fill in this section whenever a new idea/concept arises.

________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)

[2] New Zealand suspends entry for travellers from India due to high COVID-19 cases, Channel News Asia, April 2021,

[6] 163 test positive for COVID-19 in San Carlos City, Negros Occidental,, April 2021,

[7] Infections rise, 334 new Covid-19 cases, The Bangkok Post, April 2021,

[8] 10 new clusters detected, another 10 ended today, New Strait Times, April 2021,

[9] Osaka declares local medical emergency as coronavirus cases hit record 878, The Japan Times, April 2021,

[10] 86 COVID deaths, 5,232 virus cases recorded Wednesday, The Jordan Times, April 2021,

[11] Coronavirus rages in Gaza, with record tally of new daily cases, YnetNews, April 2021,

[12] As wealthy countries look toward a return to normalcy, many impacted by conflict and crisis are experiencing significant increases in COVID-19 cases and deaths with little hope for a vaccine this year, International Rescue Committee, April 2021,

[13] Iran reports 258 coronavirus deaths, highest daily toll since December, Arab News, April 2021,

[14] India bans remdesivir exports as COVID-19 cases surge, Al Jazeera, April 2021,

[15] Iraq COVID-19 cases up by 6,791, 35 deaths, KUNA, April 2021,

[16] Afghanistan reports 82 new COVID-19 cases, Sina English, April 2021,

[17] Pakistan extends Covid-19 restrictions till April 13 as infections surge, Times of India, April 2021,

[18] Lebanon records 31 more coronavirus deaths, 2,213 new cases, The Daily Star Lebanon, April 2021,

[19] Bhutan vaccinates 60% of population against COVID-19 in record time, Channel News Asia, April 2021,

[20] Philippines suspends AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine for under 60s, Channel News Asia, April 2021,

[21] Indonesia says about 100 million AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine doses face arrival delays, Channel News Asia, April 2021,

[22] British variant of coronavirus 1.3 times more infectious: Japanese study, The Japan Times, April 2021,

[24] New storm to bring severe weather to Central and Southern US, record heat for millions, ABC News, April 2021,

[26] Indonesia, East Timor flood death toll surges past 150, The Bangkok Post, April 2021,

[27] More than 30 million people on alert for severe weather, ABC News, April 2021,

[28] Western Australia braces for 'worst case scenario' as cyclone Seroja nears, Reuters, April 2021,

[29] 21 miners trapped after Xinjiang coal mine accident - China Daily, Thomson Reuters, April 2021,

[30] Indonesia's Java hit by magnitude 5.9 quake, reports of one killed, damage, Reuters, April 2021,

[32] Major fire at a slum housing Rohingyas near Jammu, more than two dozen huts gutted, Frontline, April 2021,

[33] Reported Cases and Deaths by Country or Territory, Worldometer, March 2021,

[34] More Than 781 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker, Bloomberg, April 2021,



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