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FLASH ALERT: POSSIBLE ESCALATION OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE AS THE US ELECTION APPROACHES; MORE RIOTS/VIOLENT PROTESTS ARE VERY LIKELY TO FOLLOW; POPULATION AND LAW ENFORCEMENT MAINTAIN VIGILANCE

Sabrina Bernardo, Jigyasa Maloo, Jacob Robison, Hae Lim Park

Elena Alice Rossetti, Alice Cian, James Raggio, Clémence Van Damme, Editors; Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor

October 20, 2024 


Protests Outside Government Building[1]


The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) is issuing a FLASH ALERT to all political representatives and US judges presiding over cases stemming from the January 6, 2021 Insurrection due to increasing concerns about the potential for further political violence as election day approaches. Former president Donald Trump, as well as other conservative officials, have made multiple claims questioning the integrity of the upcoming US presidential election and the fairness of judicial cases against Insurrection rioters. US District of Columbia District Judge Reggie Walton, referring to Trump, stated “He’s riling up the troops again, so if he doesn’t get what he wants, it’s not inconceivable that we will experience that same situation again. And who knows? It could be worse.”[2] US law enforcement and residents should remain vigilant in light of increasing political tensions and violence across the country. US law enforcement and citizens should remain vigilant regarding the influx of misinformation and disinformation circulating online in the run-up to Election Day.


CTG is on HIGH alert regarding the riots associated with the 2024 US Election. Political violence will VERY LIKELY increase as Election Day approaches. Social media will VERY LIKELY be a stage for riot announcements and political violence encouragement. Misinformation and disinformation will LIKELY influence extremist individuals with similar violent views. Judges will LIKELY continue to express concern regarding narratives of politically motivated court cases and judicial integrity, while far-right extremists and their ideological supporters will LIKELY target judges presiding over the remaining Insurrection cases. Authorities will VERY LIKELY continue monitoring social media, political debates, and speeches, to prevent riots and develop response plans. The Capitol will VERY LIKELY have increased security measures as the Elections near. Politically motivated disinformation, extremist calls for violent action, and an elevated physical security presence, like an armed security presence at the Capitol, will LIKELY create an increased risk of future violence against civilians and elected officials.


Introduction

As the 2024 US Presidential election approaches, judges prosecuting participants from the January 6, 2021 Insurrection have expressed their fear of increasing episodes of political violence. US District Judge for the District of Columbia Reggie Walton said of Trump “He’s riling up the troops again… And who knows? It could be worse.”[3] Of the 1,500 Insurrection rioters facing federal charges, about 1,000 were convicted, 650 received prison time, and 350 cases remain open. US Justice Department (DOJ) prosecutors have maintained that sentencing is necessary to discourage further politically motivated violence, stating that some rioters have shown no remorse and rather pride for their actions.[4] Trump has vowed to pardon the rioters on the first day of office, referring to them as "warriors," "unbelievable patriots," political prisoners, and "hostages.”[5] The history of the Insurrection plays a central role in his campaign to appeal to his most devoted voters.[6] Similar to the claims of fraud in the 2020 election, Trump has recast doubt on the free and fair nature of the 2024 election. Judges have repeatedly denounced Insurrection violence and the portrayal of rioters as political prisoners, underscoring  rhetoric that raises concern for the future of US democracy.[7]


The US Capitol Police have expanded to 2,100 sworn officers, 300 more than before the Insurrection.[8] The Capitol Police do not have to request approval to get assistance from the National Guard, enabling faster response times. Additionally, there has been an increase in specialized units dedicated to intelligence analysis and crowd response. Officials and law enforcement in Washington DC have been coordinating and partnering with federal agencies such as the National Guard, and Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) for potential threats.[9] The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has elevated the electoral count on January 6, 2025, to a National Special Security Event, at a similar level to the presidential inaugurations and political conventions.[10] 


Analysis

Political violence and riots will very likely increase with concern over threats similar to the Insurrection as election day approaches. Violent demonstrations will likely occur, specifically in swing states on election day and the post-election phase. This will likely be stimulated by heightened political tension and distrust in the electoral process, with threat actors likely motivated by the grievances that fueled the Insurrection. Social media will very likely play a crucial role in announcing and organizing potential future riots and very likely allow the mobilization of threat actors from different states. Platforms such as Gab, 4chan, 8chan, X, Reddit, and Parler will very likely reinforce conspiracies surrounding the election, false claims of voter fraud and suppression, and divisive political narratives, very likely serving as a digital catalyst to incite physical violent unrest.


Judges presiding over the remaining Insurrection cases will likely be targeted by far-right extremists and their il supporters, likely including threats of physical violence and inclusion in far-right rhetoric. The politicized nature of the cases will very likely increase public scrutiny of the proceedings and sentences, with many far-right extremists very likely deeming the judicial processes unfair and biased against conservatives and Trump.


Law enforcement will very likely increase physical security and safety measures across electoral offices, polling booths, and other election-related sites. This will likely involve an elevated presence of uniformed officers, the deployment of tactical units to high-risk areas like the Capitol building, and installing barriers or controlled entry points to safeguard against unauthorized access. Surveillance tools like closed-circuit television or drones will likely be utilized to monitor activity and identify suspicious behavior. Additionally, law enforcement will likely coordinate with federal agencies like the FBI to assess threats and share intelligence on extremist activity, likely focusing on groups that may attempt to disrupt the election process. Emergency preparedness, including evacuation protocols and rapid response plans, will likely be integrated into election operations to minimize potential harm to voters and staff.


Recommendations

  • The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that US residents pay close attention to authorities' notices and advice regarding possible riots.

  • US residents should stay informed of the current political developments by following credible news sources through tools like Media Bias/Fact Check and other such websites and avoiding biased sources containing misinformation and disinformation regarding election violence and political news.

  • US law enforcement should ensure appropriate security measures for public events related to elections, including enhanced surveillance and barring high-risk, politically motivated individuals from entering events, increased law enforcement presence, and further coordination with federal agencies.

  • US law enforcement should help the judges presiding over Insurrection cases by providing physical security teams and monitoring social media activity to minimize the risk of harm and the release of personal information, like the judge's home address or personal relationships.


CTG assesses that the current threat climate is HIGH due to the upcoming election and narratives surrounding its integrity spurring immense political unrest. The risk of violent, politically motivated acts will increase as the election nears. Tensions are likely to increase when election results are finalized.


Analysis indicates that there is a HIGH PROBABILITY of future politically motivated violence or attempts at violent action against civilians, elected officials, and presidential candidates. Rhetoric regarding election integrity, politically driven judicial abuse of power, and calls for action will VERY LIKELY continue to spread on social media. An elevated security presence on election day will LIKELY discourage individuals from violent action, but will LIKELY further narratives about the abuse of political power to defraud voters and rig the election if Harris wins. Various local and state law enforcement agencies will VERY LIKELY be called to address multiple protests or riots in response to election results.

 

[1] Protests outside government building, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[2] Judges punishing Jan. 6 rioters say they fear more political violence as Election Day nears, AP, October 19, 2024, https://apnews.com/article/capitol-riot-judges-election-ebb54ab9badccfcb2b1bc2fa0de5bf21

[3] Ibid

[4] Donald Trump says again he would 'absolutely' pardon Jan. 6 rioters, NBC News, August 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/justice-department/donald-trump-says-absolutely-pardon-jan-6-rioters-rcna164565 

[5] Ibid

[6] Trump is making the Jan. 6 attack a cornerstone of his bid for the White House, AP, March 2024, https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-jan-6-pardons-2024-campaign-2401ead35cb1402a7b289c2c99761373 

[7] Judges punishing Jan. 6 rioters say they fear more political violence as Election Day nears, AP, October 2024, https://apnews.com/article/capitol-riot-judges-election-ebb54ab9badccfcb2b1bc2fa0de5bf21 

[8] Still tense from Jan. 6 riot, D.C. braces for what this election may bring, The Washington Post, October 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2024/10/20/dc-braces-presidential-election-protest-insurrection/ 

[9] Ibid

[10] Feds increase security for Jan. 6 in effort to prevent Capitol attack repeat, The Washington Post, September 2024, https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2024/09/11/congress-january-6-security-repeat/?itid=ap_peterhermann 

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