IN THE PHILIPPINES, TROPICAL CYCLONES LUIS AND MAYMAY AND THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON AFFECTED 3.7M PEOPLE, KILLING 21, AND IN BELGIUM, A WILDFIRE BURNED 3,000 HECTARES, FORCING LOCALS TO EVACUATE

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August 13-19, 2026 | Issue 33 - PACOM and EUCOM Teams

Dominic Perfetti, Blaise Liess II, Sharon Preci, Cora Jordan, Noah Clarke, Sofía Vilas

Ben Joshua Gentemann, Junior Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor

Date: August 13, 2026

Location: Philippines

Parties involved: Philippines; people; at-risk populations; vulnerable populations; vulnerable communities; low-income populations; low-income families; poorer individuals; individuals susceptible to exploitation and recruitment; criminal groups; local human trafficking networks

The event: Tropical cyclones Luis, Maymay, and the southwest monsoon have affected 3.7 million people, causing 21 casualties.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

Disruptions caused by tropical cyclones will likely disproportionately affect poorer individuals, likely prolonging societal inequalities that leave at-risk populations vulnerable to future weather-related threats. Cyclone-related disruptions such as property damage and emergency displacement will very likely worsen economic conditions for low-income populations, likely motivating their return to hazard-prone areas where high property risks from weather lower the cost of living. The resettlement of vulnerable populations to high-risk areas will likely force re-evacuations during future weather disruptions, likely limiting their ability to accumulate resources and improve their living conditions. Those limitations will likely reduce the feasibility of low-income families acquiring resiliency measures such as home insurance, likely decreasing Filipino societal resilience during future extreme weather disruptions.
Recent extreme weather events will likely disproportionately expose vulnerable communities to incorporation into local human trafficking networks, likely funding criminal groups. The tropical cyclones will likely force entire communities to evacuate their homes while dealing with health complications stemming from the initial trauma of the weather, likely leaving them in need of resources and liquidity. These needs will likely make them vulnerable to exploitation by local human trafficking groups, very likely incentivizing their participation through promises of payment and work opportunities. The combination of acute financial hardship and displacement will likely provide those groups with an expanded pool of individuals susceptible to exploitation and recruitment, likely enabling the development of their operational reach through greater illicit revenues.

Date: August 16, 2026

Location: Liege Province, Wallonia Region, Belgium

Parties involved: Belgium; authorities; border authorities; hospitals; locals; vulnerable populations; population with existing health conditions; sensitive groups in the region; elderly; Germany; EU countries

The event: A wildfire has burned 3,000 hectares, forcing the evacuation of locals.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

Persistent smoke will likely exacerbate concerns about potential health complications among sensitive groups in the region, likely elevating instances of treatment and hospitalizations for psychosomatic conditions. Smoke will likely remain in significant quantities as peat continues to smolder even after firefighters contain the fire, likely prompting continued air quality alerts and health warnings, particularly for vulnerable populations like the elderly or those with existing health conditions. Their already precarious health conditions will likely lead them to habitually monitor commercially available air quality advisories, having a roughly even chance of becoming a stressor independent of actual air quality. This stress will have a roughly even chance of manifesting as physical or psychosomatic health complications distinct from direct smoke exposure, likely prompting a secondary spike in hospital intakes that will delay medical response times for other, more critical cases.
The wildfire approaching the German border will likely encourage both countries to strengthen preventive cooperation on wildfire management, likely providing a model for improved cross-border crisis management across EU countries. The incident’s cross-border consequences will likely prompt both countries to accelerate the development of shared wildfire-risk assessments and cross-border action plans, likely allowing authorities to identify vulnerable areas. These measures will likely help the countries adapt as climate change increases wildfire risk in historically lower-risk areas, likely contributing to stronger preventive planning at the regional level. A strengthened trust and coordination between border authorities will likely limit exposure to wildfire consequences such as displacement and health risks, likely laying the blueprint for a more efficient and collaborative preventive crisis management approach across EU countries.

[1] Typhoon Fitow: Natural Hazards, by Jeff Schmaltz, licensed under Public Domain

(The appearance of U.S. Department of Defense (DoD)/Department of War (DoW) visual information does not imply or constitute DoD/DoW endorsement.)

[2] Habagat, cyclones affect nearly 3.7 million — NDRRMC, ABC-CBN, August 2026, https://www.abs-cbn.com/news/weather-traffic/2026/8/13/habagat-cyclones-affect-nearly-3-7-million-ndrrmc-1312

[3] Belgium wildfire scorches 3,000 hectares as villagers evacuate, EU sends aircraft, France 24, August 2026, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260816-eu-sends-aircraft-and-villagers-evacuate-as-belgium-battles-record-wildfire