April 14-20, 2022 | Issue 4 - Emergency Management, Health, and Hazards (EMH2) Team
Alyssa Schmidt, Megan Bilney, EMH2 Team
Justin Maurina, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff
Afghan School Building
Date: April 14-18, 2022
Location: Durban, KwaZulu-Natal Providence, South Africa
Parties involved: South Africa; South African government; South African military; South African police; South African residents; President Cyril Ramaphosa; Premier Sihle Zikalala; Deputy Social Development Minister Hendrietta Bogopane-Zulu
The event: Flooding in South Africa has killed at least 443 people, with 63 people still missing. The heavy rainfall destroyed homes, hospitals, and schools in Durban. Individuals have been without power and necessities for multiple days. Protests requesting more effective aid from the government for emergency services occurred.
Analysis & Implications:
The floods very likely disrupted key industries, particularly sugar, grape, and meat production, in the KwaZulu-Natal Providence, likely impacting food accessibility. The decreased food supply, income, and destruction of shelter will likely increase malnutrition in residents and susceptibility to water-borne diseases. Sick individuals will likely not receive adequate treatment until hospital repairs occur and there is better resource accessibility. Delayed treatment will likely cause long-term illnesses and increased mortality rates.
Students will likely not have access to education until schools get repaired, likely leading them to fall behind. Delayed education and dropouts will likely restrict access to occupational resources such as stable career opportunities and possibilities for promotion, likely impacting future economic stability. Low socio-economic individuals will very likely be affected by the floods, likely increasing social tensions as certain groups will likely not have similar opportunities for reparations, likely seeking alternative methods such as illicit activity to compensate.
Date: April 19, 2022
Location: Kabul, Afghanistan
Parties involved: Afghanistan; Afghan health officials; Shia Hazara community; Kabul residents; The Taliban
The event: Three explosions killed six people and injured 11 at a Kabul high school, with anonymous hospital personnel stating that hospitals have received more victims than recorded. The blast was in a mainly Shia Hazara community, with the explosive device reportedly hidden in backpacks and detonated inside school gates.
Analysis & Implications:
These explosions will likely increase pressure on a poorly supplied and strained healthcare system. It is unlikely that injured individuals will have access to necessary treatment, likely increasing patient deaths from treatable injuries. Increased deaths from the Shia minority will very likely increase tensions between Shia and Sunni. The history of unrest will likely lead to violence within these groups, likely increasing pressure on hospitals if retaliation attacks occur.
School attendance will likely reduce due to fear of further attacks, with parents hesitant to put their children in danger. Many students will likely not return to school, the education system has a roughly even chance of receiving less funding, likely impacting the effectiveness of education. Many individuals fled Kabul after the Taliban insurrection, so these attacks will likely cause more individuals to leave. There will likely be reduced available skilled workers in Afghanistan, including healthcare personnel, very likely decreasing access to healthcare and essential services.
________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
 South Africa flood toll rises to 443; dozens still missing, Al Jazeera, April 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/18/south-africa-flood-toll-rises-to-443-dozens-still-missing
 South African police disperse crowd calling for aid after flooding, The Guardian, April 2022, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/14/south-african-police-disperse-crowd-calling-for-aid-after-flooding
 At least six killed in blasts at Kabul high school, Reuters, April 2022, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/blasts-hit-kabul-high-school-causing-casualties-2022-04-19/