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Apr 24, 20223 min read

Florida Law Bans Abortions After 15 Weeks, Goliad County Announcement on Illegal Immigrants

April 14-20, 2022 | Issue 4 - NORTHCOM

Savannah Fellows, Jan García, Gabriel Mariotti, Maria Ruehl, Rhiannon Thomas, NORTHCOM Team

Manja Vitasovic, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff



Banner at a pro-abortion rally in Washington DC in 2020[1]



Date: April 14, 2022

Location: Florida, USA

Parties involved: Republican Governor Ron DeSantis; Republican party; Democratic party; US government; US Senate; Florida conservatives; Florida liberals; Florida citizens; young women; lower-class women

The event: Florida passed a new law banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy which will be effective from July 2022. Exceptions to this law include medical emergencies for either the mother or the fetus, but not in cases of human trafficking, incest, or rape. The current law provisions allow abortion until the 24 weeks of pregnancy and have been in force in Florida since 1973. A Republican majority in the US Senate prevents Democrats’ proposals for new provisions of the Women’s Health Protection Act, which aims to secure the right to abortion.[2] Those in favor of legal abortions argue they are safer than illegal, conducted outside of medical clinics.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

  • Laws restricting abortion will very likely increase tensions between the Florida conservatives and liberals, very likely causing demonstrations and violent riots. Violent riots will likely cause confrontations between the law enforcement and protesters, likely threatening locals’ safety. Republican majority states will likely mirror Florida’s abortion law, likely delaying the progress of the Women’s Health Protection Act, and likely causing a spillover of violent protests across the US.

  • Florida’s abortion restrictions will almost certainly cause pregnant women to have illegal abortions, very likely causing more women’s deaths, likely due to poor medical conditions and care. Young women and lower-class women will very likely be the most vulnerable, likely due to the lack of access to private medical care and insurance.

  • Women who cannot receive an abortion will almost certainly experience anxiety and depression, likely because of increased stress, debt, and unpreparedness to take care of the child. This will likely cause parent absenteeism and less stable homes, likely causing mental problems in children. This will almost certainly perpetuate a cycle of unstable homes likely leading to mental health problems in adults.

  • There is a roughly even chance the US administration will be condemned for the adoption of the restrictive abortion law, reducing Biden’s electoral support, likely decreasing his chances in the 2024 presidential elections. Republicans winning the elections will very likely weaken the Women’s Health Protection Act as more abortion bans will likely be adopted by states.


Date: April 18, 2022

Location: Goliad County, Texas, USA

Parties involved: US government; US Congress; President Biden; Goliad County Sheriff Roy Boyd; Goliad County residents; Houston law enforcement; former President Donald Trump; Mexican cartels; Texas gangs; illegal immigrants

The event: Goliad County Sheriff Roy Boyd announced that Mexican cartels are preparing to transport many illegal immigrants from Mexico to the US as the US government plans to end Title 42 enforcement.[4] Implemented by former President Donald Trump in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Title 42 grants the US government power to prohibit persons from entering the US to stop the spread of a contagious disease.[5] Human smuggling increased after the announcement. Some Texas gangs have been known to aid cartels in human smuggling.[6]

Analysis & Implications:

  • The increase in human smuggling and associated crimes, like stealing vehicles and damaging property will likely decrease the security of local residents and will very likely require increased local law enforcement activity. The decrease in security will very likely result in residents demanding that law enforcement increase anti-smuggling tactics, like the increased monitoring of Texas gangs who likely profit from cooperating with Mexican cartels in human smuggling. Goliad County residents will very likely pressure the state and federal government to increase funding to local law enforcement and to increase border security.

  • President Biden's chance of re-election will almost certainly decrease if border security cannot deter and prevent mass smuggling. Republicans will likely use the increase in human smuggling to gain additional votes. To increase election chances, Republican government officials will likely pressure US Congress for more stringent border policies, likely to mitigate mass smuggling.

________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)

[2] Florida becomes latest US state to restrict abortion access, Al Jazeera, April 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/14/florida-becomes-latest-us-state-to-restrict-abortion-access

[4] Texas Sheriff: Mexican cartels preparing for massive human smuggling operation, The Center Square, April 2022, https://www.thecentersquare.com/texas/texas-sheriff-mexican-cartels-preparing-for-massive-human-smuggling-operation/article_aa813770-bf15-11ec-b4cf-1be5a4c7d2ac.html

[5] What is Title 42, the COVID-19 border policy set to end in late May?, CBS News, April 2022, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/title-42-immigration-border-biden-covid-19-cdc/

[6] Texas Sheriff: Mexican cartels preparing for massive human smuggling operation, The Center Square, April 2022, https://www.thecentersquare.com/texas/texas-sheriff-mexican-cartels-preparing-for-massive-human-smuggling-operation/article_aa813770-bf15-11ec-b4cf-1be5a4c7d2ac.html

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