IN PORTUGAL, TRADE UNIONS WENT ON A GENERAL STRIKE AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT’S LABOR REFORM PROPOSAL, AND A GERMAN AFD LAWMAKER CALLED FOR AN ALLIANCE BETWEEN GERMAN AND US NATIONALIST PARTIES

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December 11-17, 2025 | Issue 48 - EUCOM Team

Marija Lazic, Leon Kille, Chiara Michieli, Jacob Fields

Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Date: December 11, 2025

Location: Portugal

Parties involved: Portugal; government; trade unions; opposition parties; governing-aligned actors dissenting from the reform; transport and public services; employers and investors in transport-dependent sectors; transport providers; media and civic spaces; citizens

The event: Trade unions went on a general strike against the government's proposed labor reform.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

Portugal’s general strike will likely create institutional challenges to government legitimacy during periods of sustained social contestation. Periodic disruptions to transport and public services will very likely normalize extra-parliamentary pressure, likely allowing unions to continue organizing efforts to shape legislative and administrative decision-making. The sustained union-led mobilization will very likely amplify public discourse against the proposed reform as periodic strikes resonate across media and civic spaces, likely shaping citizens’ perceptions of the government’s entitlement to advance reform and increasing reputational costs. These pressures will likely test institutional resilience, very likely making the government vulnerable to competing narratives advanced by trade unions, opposition parties, and governing-aligned actors dissenting from the reform that frames legitimacy around responsiveness to mobilized pressure.
The general strike will very likely shape expectations of commercial headwinds among employers and investors in transport-dependent sectors, likely undermining the intended benefits of the proposed labor reform. Repeated work stoppages and disruptions across rail, port, and urban transit networks will very likely reduce service reliability and increase operating uncertainty for transport operations. These disruptions will likely lead transport providers to delay capacity planning, maintenance investment, and workforce adjustments to improve efficiency under the labor reform. Sustained uncertainties in operational costs will very likely limit the reform’s capacity to tackle rigidities in the labor market, likely increasing the economic strain persistence despite formal legislative change.

Date: December 13, 2025

Location: Germany and the US

Parties involved: Germany; center-right party Christian Democratic Union (CDU); far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD); AfD lawmaker Markus Frohnmaier; sectors of the German conservative electorate; civil opposition of the AfD and MAGA movement; German citizens; US Vice President JD Vance; US Secretary of State Marco Rubio; Trump administration; US administration’s key members; far-right nationalist Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement; US and German nationalist parties; US far-right media; local political youth organization New York Young Republicans; European far-right populist parties; like-minded European parties; Dutch far-right political party Party for Freedom (PVV); Spanish far-right political party Vox; mainstream parties

The event: Frohnmaier called for an alliance between German and US nationalist parties at the MAGA New York Young Republican Club’s Annual Gala.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

A MAGA-AfD alliance will likely increase the AfD’s political capacity to further the appeal of nationalistic propaganda to German citizens opposing AfD and the MAGA movement. AfD will likely leverage US far-right media to disseminate nationalistic narratives as shared security measures, such as strict immigration policies, very likely increasing the perceived legitimacy of these messages among civil opponents of the AfD and the Trump administration. The increased MAGA support will likely widen AfDs nationwide reach to target regions with low AfD support, such as Bavaria, very likely expanding their regional political influence. There is a roughly even chance that this perceived legitimacy of AfD’s media propaganda will weaken informal democratic constraints, very likely lowering civil resistance to nationalist policies and extremist ideas.
AfD will likely capitalize on support from the US administration’s key members, such as Vance and Rubio, to portray itself as a more relevant political force thanks to powerful international connections ahead of the 2026 elections. While this move will likely alienate some sectors of the German conservative electorate who do not align with the current US administration, it will very likely resonate strongly among those favouring solid transatlantic ties and welcoming AfD’s publicized international relevance. The closer alignment between the AfD and the MAGA movement will likely result in a surge of CDU voters to the AfD in the upcoming elections, increasing its chances of becoming the main political force in Sachsen-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern states. This dynamic will very likely position AfD as the Trump administration’s privileged interlocutor in Germany, with a roughly even chance of CDU strategically breaking the firewall to form a local governing coalition in the two contested states.
Frohnmaier’s statement will likely incentivize other European far-right populist parties to pursue closer ties with the MAGA movement for similar political gain. The AfD’s strategic communication surrounding the apparent success of the meeting will likely attempt to embolden like-minded European parties, very likely conveying that increased transatlantic linkages will bolster political support of parties such as PVV or Vox. Far-right parties sensitive to these narratives, particularly those without current government responsibility, will very likely leverage media coverage of US ties to boost their domestic support, likely trying to legitimize controversial policies covered by the US National Security Strategy, such as migration. Increased proximity to MAGA has a roughly even chance of contributing to European far-right parties’ future electoral successes, unlikely to consolidate executive power at the national level due to mainstream parties' stances and democratic institutional factors maintaining firewalls.

[1] Megaphone, generated by a third party database

[2] Portugal general strike stalls transport, closes schools in labour reform protest, Reuters, December 2025, https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/portugal-general-strike-stalls-transport-closes-schools-labour-reform-protest-2025-12-11/organizingamplifyingamplifyingthe apoliciesmplify

[3] German far-right lawmaker calls for US-German nationalist alliance at MAGA gala, Reuters, December 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/german-far-right-lawmaker-calto ls-us-german-nationalist-alliance-maga-gala-2025-12-14/