IRAN LAUNCHES MISSILE STRIKES ON AN AMERICAN MILITARY BASE IN QATAR IN RETALIATION TO US ATTACKS ON IRANIAN NUCLEAR SITES

(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but may be subject to change.)  

Ludovica Leccese, Amelia Bell, Archie Archie, Isabelle Hilyer-Jones, Tate English, AFRICOM, CENTCOM, NORTHCOM, and PACOM Teams

Clémence Van Damme, Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editors

June 23, 2025

Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar[1]

Current situation:

The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed the interception of Iranian missiles targeting Al Udeid Air Base, a US military base near the Qatari Capital, Doha. Reportedly, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) conducted the attack. The statement claimed the evacuation of the US military base earlier in the day, and reported no casualties or injuries as a result of these missile attacks. The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the escalation of violence across the region.[2] US officials have yet to release a statement on the strikes.

Day/Time of event: June 23, 2025 / Unknown at Time of Report

What is the current threat:

• The Iranian attack on the US base in Qatar very likely represents a violation of its sovereignty according to international law, including the UN’s Charter principles of territorial integrity and non-intervention. Qatar will very likely reserve the right to respond directly to defend its sovereignty and airspace, with a roughly even chance of leading to a military confrontation with the Iranian forces. The Qatari government will likely coordinate its response with international and regional partners, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members, likely resulting in a wider regional conflict.  

• Iran’s missile strikes on US bases will very likely increase the risk of US retaliation. The US will likely perform airstrikes targeting populated and militarily significant areas of Iran, such as known IRGC locations, which will very likely delay diplomatic reconciliation. Future attacks will very likely increase the risk of civilian casualties and deepen nationalistic sentiments.

• Iran’s attempted missile strike in Qatar will very likely lead to neighbouring countries, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain, closing their airspace, fearing an attack on US bases in their territories. This will almost certainly prompt the military to place installations on high alert, with defense systems activated in anticipation of future national threats, including additional Iranian missile strikes.  

• The Iranian strike will very likely raise major concerns for US forces across the Gulf, considering the high number of American personnel in the region. The  US will likely enhance its coordination with Gulf nations to foster and bolster intelligence sharing and missile defense systems in the region. There is a roughly even chance that the US will increase regional military presence in the area, likely reinforcing its rapid response units to deter future attacks on its staff and forces.

• Iran’s strikes on Qatari territory will very likely result in civilian displacement, as citizens living near US military installations will likely try to flee to other Qatari areas or neighboring countries, such as the UAE and Kuwait, out of fear of future attacks and to protect their families. This displacement will very likely worsen the humanitarian crisis in the Middle East by amplifying regional shortages of shelters, food, and medical supplies, very likely straining aid organizations such as the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and the World Food Program (WFP). This pressure will likely divert attention from existing crises like Gaza, Sudan, and Yemen, very likely complicating resource allocation decisions that compromise assistance quality across multiple theaters.

Who will it directly impact:

• US military personnel in the Middle East

• US citizens in Qatar

• US military bases in the GCC countries

• US

• US embassies

• US government and defence policymakers

• Qatar

• Qatari Government

• Qatari Military

• Qatari citizens and residents

• Iran

• Iranian Government

• Iranian Citizens

• IRGC

• UAE

• Bahrain

• Kuwait

• Israel

• Israeli Government

• Humanitarian Organizations

• UN

• UNHCR

• WFP

• GCC

• GCC members

---

[1] Al Udeid Air Base via Google Earth, created by CTG member (This image pixelation has been enhanced by a third-party.)

[2] @majedalansari, X, June 23, 2025, https://x.com/majedalansari/status/1937196615128764606