OHCHR WARNS ABOUT THE MYANMAR MILITARY JUNTA’S TACTICS BEFORE THE ELECTIONS, AND INDIA DECLARES IT IS CLOSELY MONITORING TERRORIST ACTIVITIES ALONG THE LINE OF CONTROL AND IS READY TO RESPOND

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November 27 - December 3, 2025 | Issue 46 - PACOM Team

Nimaya Premachandra, Matan Lieberman, Victoria Kotey, Lucy Gibson, Agathe Labadi, PACOM

Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Date: November 28, 2025

Location: Myanmar

Parties involved: Myanmar military junta; junta officials; pro-regime Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP); anti-regime armed resistance groups; armed groups; in-person informants; informants; civilians; citizens; polpulations; citizens perceived to be in opposition; liberated prisoners; dissenters with an online presence; youth from the Mon Khmer ethnic communities; Myanmar’s allies; junta’s allies; allied countries; Russia; China; Belarus; election observers; countries with strong cybersurveillance capabilities; UN; Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN); Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR)

The event: OHCHR warned about the Myanmar military junta's tactics in advance of the December elections, such as AI surveillance, electronic voting machines, and pressuring citizens into voting.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

The military junta will very likely engage in forceful and coercive measures like disenfranchising certain populations that criticize the elections, such as youth from the Mon Khmer ethnic communities, to control voting results. The military junta will likely intimidate liberated prisoners by closely monitoring their activities through in-person informants and online surveillance, likely forcing participation in training sessions on electronic voting systems and pushing them to support the USDP out of fear of being rearrested. The military junta will likely leverage the coerced and controlled allegiance of liberated prisoners to strengthen its mechanisms to suppress dissent and criticism about the election by integrating them into its surveillance networks as informants. The military junta will very likely conduct widespread arbitrary detentions of citizens perceived to be in opposition under the Election Protection Law, very likely leading to delays in the publication of voter registers and confusion over the electoral outcome.
Anti-regime armed resistance groups will very likely employ subversive tactics to disrupt elections in contested areas of the country's center. Armed groups will likely use violent attacks to sabotage the election by targeting key infrastructure, such as using IEDs on major roads and buildings, very likely destabilizing the area and impeding election procedures. Armed groups will likely violently discourage junta officials from carrying out the election, through death threats and ambushes, very likely increasing the isolation of contested areas. Armed conflict in these states will likely deepen civilians’ fear of participating in the election, likely diminishing the legitimacy of its outcomes through fabricated results and canceled voting sessions in affected areas.
Myanmar’s allies, such as Russia, China, and Belarus, will likely have incentives to interfere with the election and supply the military junta with tools to manipulate the outcome. Allied countries will likely offer election observers to portray the election as democratic, very likely presenting election monitoring reports in international forums such as the UN and the ASEAN to increase the military junta’s credibility. Countries with strong cybersurveillance capabilities, such as Russia and China, will likely support the military junta’s censorship of online discourse through automated content monitoring tools and help identify dissenters with an online presence. The junta’s allies will very likely provide logistical support for the military junta’s participation in the election, such as rigged voting machines, pro-junta propaganda, and armed support, likely collaborating with the military junta to fabricate junta-favorable election results.

Date: December 1, 2025

Location: India

Parties involved: India; government; Border Security Force (BSF); National Investigation Agency (NIA); BSF Inspector General Ashok Yadav; Indian citizens in Jammu and Kashmir; Pakistan; political associations; Pakistani political party Jamaat-e-Islami (JeL); social welfare front networks; terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) operatives; LeT front organization Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD); terrorist operatives; terrorist group Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) operatives; terrorists; sleeper cells; local agents; local communities; Muslim communities; informants and undercover agents among the Indian diaspora; infiltrated operatives; Pakistani supporters; potential contacts within Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI); locally recruited guides; encrypted social media platforms WhatsApp and Telegram

The event: Yadav warned that any provocation from terrorists along the Line of Control (LoC) would prompt the second phase of Operation Sindoor.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

India will almost certainly enhance its system of multi-layered surveillance infrastructure to monitor terrorist activity along the border and, in case of escalating threats, launch the second phase of Operation Sindoor. India will very likely increase investment in its aerial surveillance capabilities by developing and deploying high-endurance UAVs along the International Border (IB) and LoC to preemptively identify movement of resources and terrorist operatives, and infiltration attempts. The new posture will very likely allow for sustained Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) missions to complement ground capabilities and gain warning of planned operations or attacks, with BSF drones providing shifting location and strength of terrorist launch pads. In the case of imminent threats or escalatory terrorist activity, India will likely deploy high-precision, medium-range weapons such as HAMMER precision-guided bombs and Harop loitering munitions against active launch pads in border areas like Sialkot and Zafarwal.
To mitigate terrorists’ influence in Jammu and Kashmir, India will very likely conduct operations to uncover silent recruitment, especially around launch pads. BSF will likely perform periodic checks on local communities that India considers at risk of radicalization, such as Muslim communities and political associations, such as JeL. BSF, in coordination with NIA, will very likely attempt to enlist local informants and undercover agents among the Indian diaspora on Pakistani territory to collect intel on radicalization centers and plans for terrorist recruitment operations. Enhanced intelligence will very likely allow India to improve contingency planning and continuously map changing recruitment hierarchies within mosques and social welfare front networks, such as Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JuD), particularly in Punjab Province, very likely identifying key targets for disruption.
Pakistan-based terrorist operatives from JeM and LeT will likely continue building up forces at launch pads across the LoC despite Yadav’s declaration, likely planning imminent infiltration attempts. Sleeper cells or local agents in the Kashmir Valley will likely try to collect tactical intel on BSF surveillance infrastructure locations, likely leveraging encrypted WhatsApp and Telegram communications with Pakistani supporters and potential contacts within ISI. Enhanced intel will very likely allow JeM and LeT operatives stationed at launch pads near the Samba and Kupwara districts to identify vulnerable points along the LoC, almost certainly waiting for inclement weather conditions, such as heavy rain or fog under the cover of night, to attempt infiltration. Infiltrated operatives will very likely meet up with locally recruited guides to evade surveillance, very likely increasing the risk of bombing or armed attacks on government installations or Indian citizens in Jammu and Kashmir.

[1] Elections, generated by a third party database

[2] UN warns on voter surveillance ahead of Myanmar election, Reuters, November 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/un-warns-voter-surveillanche registers-ahead-myanmar-election-2025-11-28/

[3] BSF warns of 120 terrorists on LoC launch pads, The Times of India, December 2025, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bsf-warns-of-120-terrorists-on-loc-launch-pads/articleshow/125702016.cms