PAKISTAN CONDEMNS INDIA’S SUSPENSION OF THE INDUS WATER TREATY, PHILIPPINE COAST GUARD REPORTS ALLEGED UNLAWFUL CHINESE NAVAL PRESENCE AT SANDY CAY, AND SECTARIAN CLASHES IN SYRIA KILL OVER A DOZEN
- Senior Editor
- May 3
- 5 min read
April 24-30, 2025 | Issue 15 - CENTCOM and PACOM teams
Amelia Bell, Giovanni Lamberti, Lucy Gibson, Laura Fuchs, Isabelle Hilyer-Jones, Miles Reever, Sue Friend, Sarah Nag
Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor
Indus River[1]
Date: April 24, 2025
Location: Indian/Pakistani Border
Parties involved: Indian government; Indian military; Indian population; Pakistani government; Pakistani military; Pakistani population; Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI); Muslim citizens; Hindu communities; militant group the Resistance Front (TRF); terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT); terrorist organization Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM); organized crime groups People's Aman Committee and D-Company; social media platform X
The event: Pakistan condemned India’s decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty, describing it as “warfare.”[2]
Analysis & Implications:
Pakistan will likely escalate militarily to armed confrontation and frame its actions as a defense against India’s alleged warfare. Pakistan has a roughly even chance of moving to an offensive stance when India definitively halts the water flow to Pakistani reserves, likely violating India’s airspace by flying drones to monitor dams and basins along the Indus River. Armed clashes along the Line of Control (LoC) are likely, as Pakistan will likely use any incidents involving Indian personnel or civilians to justify military confrontation as a necessary response to India’s alleged aggression.
Pakistan's labeling of India's action as warfare will likely deepen local grievances of civilians and armed groups that demand Kashmir independence, with a roughly even chance of the involvement of Pakistani institutions. There is a roughly even chance that terrorist groups such as TRF, LeT, or JeM conduct targeted Jihadist attacks on military posts at the water supply infrastructures in the Indian-administered part of Kashmir or attempt to disrupt water supply by causing leakages, likely seeking to damage the equipment or poison water. There is a roughly even chance that ISI will provide financial or intel support to the militant groups operating in Jammu and Kashmir, likely seeking to put pressure on India and using them as a negotiation tool in case of conflict with India. ISI and Pakistani governmental institutions will likely use social media platforms like X to spread misinformation and propaganda framing India as the aggressor and Indian news networks as false, likely leading to clashes between Muslim and Hindu communities online and attacks in Muslim-majority regions.
The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty will likely trigger a rise in smuggling and illicit trade across the India-Pakistan border, worsening border security conditions. The suspension of the Treaty will very likely worsen the dire economic situation in Pakistani border regions that rely heavily on agriculture supported by the Indus River. Organized crime groups operating along the border, such as The People's Aman Committee or the D-Company, will likely exploit the weakened economic situation to expand smuggling networks, likely fuelling corruption by bribing local authorities to secure new smuggling routes. This increased illicit cross-border activity will likely intensify bilateral tensions and create additional flashpoints for violence by drawing in border patrol forces, smugglers, and opportunistic militant groups into violent clashes.
Date: April 28, 2025
Location: South China Sea
Parties involved: Philippines; Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos; Philippine Coast Guard (PCG); Philippine navy; Filipino voters; China; China Coast Guard (CCG); Chinese navy; alleged Chinese social media influence campaign operatives; Chinese minorities; exercise Balikatan participants including the Philippines, US, and Japan
The event: A PCG team deployed to disputed Sandy Cay reported an alleged unlawful Chinese naval presence.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
Emphasis on the illegal presence of Chinese vessels and the encroachment on Filipino land will likely become a central topic of Marcos’ propaganda ahead of the May mid-term elections, likely increasing voter polarization and prompting anti-Chinese sentiments. Marcos will very likely conflate increasing Chinese grey zone tactics, such as flag-raising and CCG deployment, with ongoing alleged Chinese interference on Filipino social media, likely highlighting a sense of urgency and alarm among Filipino voters. Marcos will likely promote this emergency narrative on his official social media account and through artificial account networks, likely to counter alleged Chinese disinformation. By focusing on the Chinese-linked threats, Marcos’ campaign has a roughly even chance of heightening online anti-Chinese hate speech and physical hate crimes, such as vandalism and attacks against the Chinese minority in the Philippines.
China will very likely increase its use of grey zone tactics around Sandy Cay to interfere with Balitakan, likely resulting in hostile tit-for-tats between PCG and CCG in the area. CCG will very likely evolve its symbolic actions from flag-raising to a more consistent deployment around Sandy Cay, likely utilizing armed patrols on and around the sandbars, and increasing the number of Chinese vessels near Balitakan. With its allies, such as the US and Japan, deployed in the area, the Philippines will very likely feel more entitled to respond to China proportionately by deploying PCG, likely increasing the possibility of armed confrontation and perpetuating the grey zone tactics from both sides. Simultaneous CCG and PCG deployment around Sandy Cay will likely lead to dangerous maneuvers, including attempts to ram the opposing navy, likely heightening the risk of ships running ashore.
Date: April 29, 2025
Location: Jaramana, Syria
Parties involved: Syria; Syrian transitional government; Syrian transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa; Syrian General Security Service; UN; regional organization the Arab League; Druze community; vulnerable communities; militias; Israel
The event: Sectarian clashes near Damascus occurred after a controversial Druze recording, killing over a dozen people.[4]
Analysis & Implications:
The Syrian government’s failure to protect Druze communities will likely lead to them forming independent militias for self-defense, very likely challenging the Al-Sharaa government’s monopoly of force. This militarization will very likely escalate localized clashes from Jaramana into broader confrontations with the General Security Service and affiliated transitional government forces, given the slow pace and limited trust in integration agreements. The Al-Sharaa government will very likely view Druze militias as a direct challenge to its authority and national cohesion, likely prompting attempts at forced disarmament or direct military operations against them. The proliferation of independent Druze militias will likely provide Israel with justification and opportunity to deepen its military presence in southern Syria, presenting itself as the protector of the Druze, very likely increasing external influence over local security dynamics and complicating Syrian sovereignty.
The Jaramana clashes will likely increase international observation and generate diplomatic pressure on the al-Sharaa government by amplifying concerns over its ability to manage sectarian tensions and protect vulnerable communities. The UN will likely respond by calling for enhanced monitoring of sectarian flashpoints in Syria, likely framing the violence management as a test of the interim government's commitment to inclusive governance and minority protection. The Arab League will very likely face internal divisions over continued engagement with Damascus in the absence of concrete steps to prevent future sectarian unrest and dismantle unauthorized militias. This sustained scrutiny will likely reduce Syria’s leverage in reconstruction negotiations and complicate its efforts to gain regional legitimacy.
[1] Indus, generated by a third party database
[2] Pakistan closes air space for Indian airlines, warns against water treaty violation as ties plummet, Reuters, April 2025,
[3] China, Philippines raise rival flags on disputed South China Sea sandbank, Radio Free Asia, April 2025, https://www.rfa.org/english/southchinasea/2025/04/28/china-philippines-south-china-sea-flag/
[4] More than a dozen killed in sectarian clashes near Syrian capital, Reuters, April 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/more-than-dozen-killed-sectarian-clashes-near-syrian-capital-2025-04-29/
