May 26-June 1, 2022 | Issue 9 - EUCOM
Martyna Dobrowolska, Benjamin Brooks, Pètra van de Gevel, EUCOM Team
Hannah Norton, Editor; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff
Russian soldiers in east Ukraine
Date: May 29, 2022
Parties involved: Russian military; Russian professional soldiers; specialized Russian civilians; Ukraine; Ukrainian military; Ukrainian civilians; Ukrainian refugees; human traffickers; human smugglers; Europe; EU countries; EU law enforcement
The event: The Russian government abolished its age limit for professional soldiers, enabling people over 40 to enlist in the military. Previously the age limits to join the Russian military were 18-40 years for Russians and 18-30 for foreigners. The decision to abolish the age limit allows more civilian experts to be recruited for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The aim is to recruit more technical specialists that will be required to operate high-precision weapons.
Analysis & Implications:
The Russian military will very likely reroute most of its troops to the Donbas region as more specialized and trained people will likely join the military. With trained soldiers operating high-precision weapons, Russia will almost certainly increase its military attacks on Ukrainian infrastructures, soldiers, and civilians to pressure Ukraine to surrender. Ukraine will almost certainly continue its counteroffensive, unlikely conceding peace talks with Russia. The conflict will almost certainly become prolonged, likely dividing EU countries on what countermeasures to adopt to resolve the conflict.
The number of displaced Ukrainian people will almost certainly increase in Europe if more Russian soldiers specialized in high-precision weapons join the conflict, as they will almost certainly target civilian infrastructures. Human trafficking and smuggling are likely to increase, as criminals will very likely take advantage of Ukrainian refugee vulnerability. Ukrainian refugees will unlikely be able to recognize criminals from humanitarian organizations, very likely increasing security concerns in Europe, such as the rise in organized crime and unmonitored migration. Traffickers and smugglers will likely continue to change their strategies to evade detection by EU law enforcement, almost certainly making it more difficult to identify, monitor, and prevent human trafficking and smuggling in Europe.
Date: May 30, 2022
Location: Brussels, Belgium
Parties involved: EU; Europe; European households; Russia; Hungary; Saudi Arabia; Italy; Greece; Slovakia
The event: The EU has announced new sanctions on Russia, banning all Russian seaborne oil imports, hoping to ban 90% of Russian oil by the end of the year. Hungary opposed this decision due to dependency on Russian oil. As a result, a temporary exemption for oil imports via pipeline was added to allow Russian oil into countries such as Hungary.
Analysis & Implications:
The EU will almost certainly have to find a new supplier for their oil, likely negotiating an agreement with countries such as Saudi Arabia. The EU will almost certainly have to invest more in seaborne oil methods such as cargo ships and containers as they will likely receive the majority of their oil from overseas. The EU will likely struggle initially to supply the oil across Europe as they will almost certainly be unable to use Russian oil pipelines, which will very likely negatively affect European households as oil prices will almost certainly increase. The EU will very likely have to retrofit their oil pipelines to collect oil from the southern coast of Europe, in countries like Italy and Greece.
Countries dependent on Russian oil, like Hungary and Slovakia, will very likely object to further bans on Russian oil imports. This will very likely hinder further EU sanctions against Russia as all EU members need to agree on the sanctions for them to be enacted. Hungary will very likely propose that the temporary exemption be extended until their oil needs are guaranteed by another country, likely leading to further political turmoil within the EU as this impedes the EU’s goal of banning Russian oil imports. This will likely impede future decisions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine War, likely slowing the EU’s ability to enact swift sanctions.
________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
 EU leaders agree to ban 90% of Russian oil by year-end, Associated Press, May 2022, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-zelenskyy-hungary-european-union-d0d4144c84749f84676a2f41b03b2ad4