THREAT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT: GERMANY’S ENLISTMENT POLICIES LIKELY TO INTENSIFY POLARIZATION AND YOUTH PROTESTS

Chiara Michieli, Nicola Bonsegna, Jaydn Burgin, Fleur Van Gorp, Sofía Vilas, EUCOM Team Devandra Mahto, Lizel Klaasen, Elizabeth Fignar, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

March 7, 2026

Youth Protest^[1]

Germany’s domestic threat climate will very likely deteriorate as political polarization surrounding the potential reintroduction of mandatory military service intensifies and empowers youth-led protests. Recruitment shortfalls in the Bundeswehr and growing political debates over militarization will likely increase tensions between pro-conscription and anti-conscription groups. In the short term, protests and misinformation surrounding recruitment policies will very likely complicate voluntary enlistment efforts. These dynamics will likely encourage political actors across the political spectrum to mobilize supporters by framing the issue through competing narratives about national security and individual freedom. Over the longer term, continued personnel shortages will likely increase pressure on policymakers to reconsider some form of mandatory military service.

Introduction

On March 5, 2026, the German youth collective "Schulstreik gegen Wehrpflicht"^[2] organized school strikes across 100 cities, with organizers claiming over 55,000 participants.^[3] This is the second protest organized by Schulstreik gegen Wehrpflicht against the German parliament’s reform of the military recruitment system, which had previously triggered youth protests across 90 cities on December 5, 2025.^[4] Under rules effective as of  January 1, 2026, all 18-year-old males must complete a questionnaire declaring their willingness to join the military, with non-compliance resulting in an administrative fine.^[5] Additionally, those born after 2008 will have to undergo mandatory physical examinations starting in July 2027.^[6] 

Germany possessed the largest Western European army during the Cold War,^[7] but after its reunification, it consistently disinvested in its armed forces, indefinitely suspending mandatory military conscription in 2011.^[8] The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the threat posed by Moscow to NATO’s Eastern flank pushed the German government to review its defense policy and significantly expand the Bundeswehr.^[9] Higher NATO obligations led Berlin to commit to increasing its military ranks.^[10] Currently, Germany plans to increase the Bundeswehr’s^[11] active-duty personnel to between 255,000 and 260,000,^[12] from around 180,000,^[13] with a target range set for each year,^[14] and to double the number of reservists to 200,000 by 2035.^[15] To date, the Bundeswehr has failed to successfully fill its enlistment shortage, with current efforts relying on advertising, youth outreach campaigns, and financial incentive schemes proving insufficient.^[16] While in 2025 the Bundeswehr hired 25,000 new personnel,^[17] the net number of active soldiers grew by approximately 3,000, with 20% of new recruits dropping out before becoming fully established members of the army.^[18] Additionally, a rising number of conscientious objectors^[19] is negatively impacting Germany’s efforts to meet its personnel targets.^[20]

Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democrats already planned to introduce some form of compulsory element to the current military recruitment model, but Defense Minister Boris Pistorius' Social Democrats objected.^[21] Reporting to the Parliament on March 3, Commissioner Henning Otte has stated that if Germany does not meet its recruitment targets, it will need to reintroduce some form of mandatory military service.^[22] For reintroducing full conscription, the Bundestag would have to declare a state of tension or national defense, which requires a two-thirds majority.^[23]

Analysis

Geopolitical

Doubts about continued reliance on the US as a security provider in Europe, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and Germany’s indirect exposure to the current conflict in Iran will likely reinforce the German government’s narrative in favor of increasing the Bundeswehr’s personnel. Fear of military escalation coming from a deteriorating international security environment will likely prompt the youth to question the morality and necessity of armed interventions, likely reinforcing anti-war narratives. External adversaries such as Russia will likely use these anti-war demonstrations to intentionally worsen domestic unrest. These narratives will very likely reduce eligible young Germans’ willingness to enlist, likely and directly contributing to nationwide protests. Germany’s commitments under NATO military contribution targets will very likely pressure Berlin to prioritize increasing its standing military personnel over public opinion’s concerns, likely eroding young people’s trust in the government’s actions. This will likely negatively affect the Bundeswehr’s operational effectiveness, as a smaller pool of candidates and the need to rapidly fill ranks will very likely force the Bundeswehr to lower its entry standards and opt for quantity over quality in accepting new recruits. Over time, a decline in recruitment numbers and quality will likely signal reduced German war-readiness to current and potential adversaries.

Political

The debate over the potential reintroduction of mandatory military service will very likely continue to polarize German public opinion, particularly young people. Political parties across the spectrum will likely instrumentalize the protests to mobilize supporters, shape public opinion, and influence electoral outcomes. Right-wing parties in favor of mandatory military service, such as the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), will very likely criticize the student protests as ideologically driven activism while promoting narratives that emphasize national security, military readiness, and the need for increased recruitment in the Bundeswehr. Those opposing the increased militarization will likely emphasize the possibility that the reintroduction of mandatory military service could require young citizens to serve in future military conflicts, often referencing past military engagements and their impacts on young adults, likely increasing concern among younger voters. The current youth mobilization will likely increase political engagement among younger voters in upcoming state and local elections, such as those in Baden-Württemburg. Political actors expressing opposition to mandatory military service will very likely capitalize on these concerns to mobilize support, with a roughly even chance that this will swing election results in their favor. The deteriorating international environment will very likely prompt young citizens and left-leaning groups to further question the morality and necessity of armed interventions, likely reinforcing anti-war narratives.

There is a roughly even chance that the debate over mandatory military service will extend to the broader rearmament of the Bundeswehr, likely expanding the potential protester base beyond students to include pacifist organizations and left-wing activist groups. As public discourse continues, misinformation about recruitment obligations and military policies will likely spread across political and social media platforms, very likely deepening polarization between pro-conscription and anti-conscription groups. This dynamic will likely contribute to a deterioration of the domestic threat environment, as increasing polarization and misinformation surrounding military service will have a roughly even chance of encouraging extremist actors on both the far-left and far-right to view disruptive actions targeting government institutions or the Bundeswehr as justified forms of protest.

Social

Students, perceiving the measure as a threat to personal freedom and state coercion, will very likely sustain or increase protests in the future, with a roughly even chance that these will become violent as tensions grow. Persistent protests will likely cause a more fragmented threat environment: Opposition will very likely remain peaceful, but there is a roughly even chance that far-left extremist actors such as Interventionistische Linke (IL) will infiltrate protests to exploit tensions. This infiltration of extremist elements will likely increase the risk of disruptive protest activity. There is a roughly even chance that police responses or clashes with pro-enlistment groups or counter-protesters will occur. These clashes will likely intensify tensions and deepen the ideological divide in society, as they reveal conflicting beliefs about national service and civil liberties.

The geographical diffusion of the school strikes and media coverage will very likely mobilize politically active youth across the country and foster networks of organized protest and activist groups, likely increasing the frequency and scale of protests. Media coverage will likely increase the visibility of public discontent with the government on a national and international level. Protestors will likely use youth organization forums and social media platforms to share narratives, including misinformation about recruitment policies and potential conscription. This diffusion will very likely produce spillover protest actions in neighbouring countries like France, where the government is introducing a new voluntary military service program.

Recommendations

• The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) recommends that the Bundeswehr, government institutions, and political actors increase transparent communication about the voluntary recruitment program and its connection to Germany’s NATO commitments. The communications should reduce misinformation linking recruitment policies to immediate mandatory conscription and help defuse political polarization surrounding military service.

• The Bundeswehr should provide clear and consistent information about recruitment procedures and the voluntary nature of military service through outreach campaigns and youth engagement initiatives to reduce misunderstandings about potential conscription. 

• German policymakers should strengthen existing recruitment strategies, including expanding incentives and career development opportunities, to address persistent personnel shortages and support voluntary enlistment in the Bundeswehr.

• German policymakers should promote transparent debate and outreach initiatives with youth organizations to rebuild trust and reduce political polarization surrounding defense and military service policies, addressing concerns about militarization and military recruitment strategies.

• Local authorities and high schools should strengthen coordination to identify early warning signs of extremist influence within student protest networks by training educators and student leaders to recognize indicators of radicalization and establishing clear reporting channels between schools and relevant authorities.

Threat Climate Assessment

Analysis indicates a HIGH PROBABILITY that the threat climate will shift from stable to deteriorating as polarization surrounding the potential reintroduction of compulsory military service increases, leading to nationwide protests and the spread of extremist narratives about recruitment policies. In the short term, this will VERY LIKELY prevent the Bundeswehr from meeting its recruitment targets through voluntary enlistment, increasing the likelihood that policymakers will consider reintroducing mandatory military service. The possible reintroduction of compulsory military service will UNLIKELY effectively address the Bundeswehr’s personnel shortages, as the number of conscientious objectors will LIKELY increase, reducing the recruitment pool. There is a ROUGHLY EVEN CHANCE that foreign and extremist actors will attempt to exploit the heated debate to spread misinformation to fuel further dissatisfaction with the government and to justify disruptive or violent actions targeting the military. This matters because the German government will VERY LIKELY continue prioritizing the expansion of military personnel despite public opposition, LIKELY increasing polarization over military service.

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[1] Protests, generated by a third party database

[2] In English, “School Strike Against Conscription”

[3] German high school students protest against military service, DW, March 2026, https://www.dw.com/en/german-high-school-students-protest-against-military-service/a-76236452 

[4] 'I don't want to be part of this war machine': Young Germans protest against military service plans, BBC, December 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cx25031x23ro 

[5] Law on the Modernization of Military Service (Military Service Modernization Act — WDModG), Bundesgesetzblatt, https://www.recht.bund.de/bgbl/1/2025/370/VO.html (Translated by Google)

[6] Youth protests against military service, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung Foundation, December 2025, https://www.kas.de/en/in-short/detail/-/content/youth-protests-agactive-duty personnel between 255,000 and 260,000 over the next 10 years, with current troops atainst-military-servicactive-duty personnel between 255,000 and 260,000 over the next 10 years, with current troops ate 

[7] The Bundeswehr in the Cold War, Bundeswehr, https://www.bundeswehr.de/en/about-bundeswehr/history/cold-war 

[8] German parliament backs controversial military service law amid Russian threat, Reuters, December 2025, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/german-parliament-backs-controversial-military-service-law-amid-russian-threat-2025-12-05/ 

[9] Germany to raise defence spending sharply in response to 'Putin's aggression', France24, February 2022, https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20220227-germany-to-raise-defence-spending-sharply-in-response-to-putin-s-aggression 

[10] German military seeks massive troop boost to meet NATO goals, Politico, https://www.politico.eu/article/german-army-seeks-massive-troop-boost-meet-nato-goals-alfons-mais/ 

[11] German armed forcesAbout Bundeswehr, Bundeswehr, https://www.bundeswehr.de/en/about-bundeswehr 

[12] Germany agrees new military service plan to boost troop numbers, BBC, November 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gpkerdn9qo

[13] “Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2025),” NATO, https://www.nato.int/content/dam/nato/webready/documents/finance/def-exp-2025-en.pdf 

[14] Military service on a voluntary basis; conscription becomes mandatory, Die Zeit, December 2025, https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2025-08/bundeswehr-wehrdienst-gesetzentwurf-boris-pistorius-faq (Translated by Google)

[15] Germany agrees new military service plan to boost troop numbers, BBC, November 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gpkerdn9qo

[16] Military service on a voluntary basis; conscription becomes mandatory, Die Zeit, December 2025, https://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2025-08/bundeswehr-wehrdienst-gesetzentwurf-boris-pistorius-faq (Translated by Google)

[17] Recruitment boost crucial, Bundeswehr report finds, DW, March 2026, https://www.dw.com/en/germany-recruitment-boost-crucial-bundeswehr-report-finds/a-76196701 

[18] Recruitment poses main problem for German armed forces, says commissioner, Reuters, March 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/recruitment-poses-main-problem-german-armed-forces-says-commissioner-2026-03-03/

[19] German high school students protest against military service, DW, March 2026, https://www.dw.com/en/german-high-school-students-protest-against-military-service/a-76236452 

[20] Germany: Bundeswehr ranks shrink despite recruitment drive, DW, February 2024, https://www.dw.com/en/germany-bundeswehr-ranks-shrink-despite-recruitment-drive/a-68154710#:~:text=Despite%20a%20spending%20and%20recruitment,to%20broaden%20the%20recruitment%20net.&text=The%20total%20number%20of%20full,missions%20ahead%2C%22%20she%20said

[21] Recruitment boost crucial, Bundeswehr report finds, DW, March 2026, https://www.dw.com/en/germany-recruitment-boost-crucial-bundeswehr-report-finds/a-76196701 

[22] Recruitment poses main problem for German armed forces, says commissioner, Reuters, March 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/recruitment-poses-main-problem-german-armed-forces-says-commissioner-2026-03-03/ 

[23] German high school students protest against military service, DW, March 2026 https://www.dw.com/en/german-high-school-students-protest-against-military-service/a-76236452