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Security Brief: EUCOM Week of March 27, 2022

March 27 - 30, 2022 | Issue 1

Pètra van de Gevel, Martyna Dobrowolska, Benjamin Brooks, EUCOM Team

Hannah Norton, Carlos Hochberger, Editors; Jennifer Loy, Chief of Staff



The Nordic Resistance Movement (NRM)[1]



Date: March 27, 2022

Location: Europe

Parties involved: EU; EU institutions; European countries; Russia; National infrastructures; Ukraine; Europe

The event: The Russia-Ukraine war and the rise in energy costs are driving EU institutions to address the European energy policy. The goal is to rapidly reduce the continent's dependency on Russian oil and natural gas by two-thirds this year. In the short term, Europe will need to secure alternative sources of fossil fuels. The long-term goal is to invest more in renewables and energy efficiency.[2]

Analysis & Implications:

  • If Europe reaches energy independence from Russian exports, Russia will almost certainly be unable to exercise political pressure in Europe through its energy supplies. Russia will almost certainly no longer be in the position to influence the EU decision-making processes that do not promote Russian interests by reducing or cutting energy provisions, or by increasing gas prices in Europe.

  • By investing in locally-sourced renewable energy, European countries will very likely achieve their own energy security, likely having stable access to energy resources for their economic development. Without dependence on Russian energy exports, the EU would very likely position itself in a stronger position on a diplomatic level. EU countries will likely be able to enforce peace talks to cease the Russia-Ukraine war without concerns about losing access to energy supplies.


Date: March 28, 2022

Location: Sweden

Parties involved: Anti-Defamation League (ADL); Nordic Resistance Movement of Sweden (NRM); Scandinavia; Jewish community; Minorities in Sweden; Nordic region; Swedish government; Germany; Russia; Extremist groups; Swedish law enforcement

The event: The ADL published a report on antisemitism across Scandinavia and stated that the Swedish NRM currently poses an increased security threat to the Jewish community. The NRM of Sweden has expanded its influence beyond Sweden and established branches in other countries, such as Germany and Russia, by creating alliances with other extremist groups. In 2020, the NRM of Sweden organized 185 gatherings to train in anticipation of encounters with Swedish law enforcement and was responsible for 1,232 propaganda distributions.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

  • The NRM of Sweden will very likely continue to target the Jewish community and other minorities in Sweden. They will very likely continue to spread antisemitic propaganda in Sweden, very likely resulting in individuals with similar ideologies consuming this propaganda. This will likely result in an increased group presence in Sweden, likely increasing the risk of violent attacks carried out by members of the NRM of Sweden against the Jewish community.

  • The NRM of Sweden will very likely continue to establish alliances with extremist groups worldwide, very likely resulting in the rise of violent extremism in Sweden and other countries where the NRM of Sweden is active. Alliances will very likely increase the chances of extremist groups preparing violent attacks without being intercepted by law enforcement or intelligence services. The NRM of Sweden will almost certainly pose a transnational threat to the security of the Jewish community and other minorities worldwide.

  • The group’s training has very likely provided them with paramilitary tactics they can use during protests or riots. The use of paramilitary tactics by the NRM of Sweden will very likely increase domestic terrorism, very likely endangering the safety of citizens. This will also very likely pose a threat to the security of Swedish law enforcement during potential encounters with the NRM of Sweden during street violence or riots.


Date: March 28, 2022

Location: Germany

Parties involved: German neo-Nazi groups; Russia; Ukraine; Ukrainian far-right militant group, Azov Battalion; Russian President Vladimir Putin; German citizens; Far-right militants

The event: Neo-Nazi groups in Germany are split in deciding whom they should support in the Russia-Ukraine war. Some German far-right groups support Ukraine and the Azov Battalion, while others support Russia. While there has been plenty of vocal support for far-right militants from extreme far-right German groups, no German neo-Nazis have decided to fight in the war in Ukraine.[4]

Analysis & Implications:

  • German neo-Nazi groups will very likely be inspired by the actions of far-right militant groups fighting in Ukraine, likely increasing far-right activity in Germany, such as demonstrations or patrols. Far-right German groups are unlikely to join far-right militants in Ukraine but will very likely use the conflict as propaganda to garner local political support. The recruitment of new supporters will very likely increase local radicalism and far-right violence.

  • If far-right German group members eventually decide to join like militants in Ukraine, their knowledge of paramilitary tactics will very likely increase. Far-right members will very likely join the Russia-Ukraine war to conduct acts of terrorism or show violent tendencies without being prosecuted. Once they return to Germany, violent acts will very likely increase due to increased knowledge of paramilitary tactics, almost certainly endangering the safety of other German citizens.

________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)

[1]NMR in Stockholm 2016” by Frankie Fouganthin licensed under Creative Commons

[2] War shakes Europe path to energy independence, climate goals, The Associated Press, March 2022, https://apnews.com/e13e47b5c3784fa26e61d49502797295

[3] Report: Leading European Neo-Nazi Group Exports Antisemitism Across Scandinavia and Beyond, Homeland Security Today, March 2022, https://www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/counterterrorism/report-leading-european-neo-nazi-group-exports-antisemitism-across-scandinavia-and-beyond/

[4] Germany's far-right split by Russia-Ukraine war, Deutsche Welle, March 2022, https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-far-right-split-by-russia-ukraine-war/a-61283065

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