September 28-October 4, 2023 | Issue 34 - NORTHCOM and Weapons/Tactics
Mateo Maya, Agathe Labadi, Martina Sclaverano
Alya Fathia Fitri, Editor; Evan Beachler, Senior Editor
Mexico-US Border Fence[1]
Date: September 29, 2023
Location: Tecate, Mexico
Parties involved: Mexico; Mexican government; Mexico’s National Institute of Migration (INM); Mexican citizens; Mexican migrants; Mexican smugglers; Mexican cartels; Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG); US; US government; US border control agencies
The event: A shooting near the Mexico-US border resulted in two Mexican migrants killed and three injured. The INM rescued fourteen Mexican citizens on Cuchuma Hill, an area of operations for migrant smugglers, which has already seen armed confrontations of rival cartels and criminal organizations.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
Gun violence along the US-Mexico border will likely increase as the CJNG intensifies vigilance over illegal crossings. The cartel will likely aim at keeping migrants alive, forcing them to smuggle drugs across the border into the US. There is a roughly even chance that CJNG will use smuggling routes to expand it’s influence in the US, likely boosting the drug and weapons trade across the border.
The increasing death tolls due to the new US border restrictions and gun violence will likely put political pressure on the Mexican government to withhold intelligence from the US about migrant smugglers. This situation likely prevents the partnership of the two states’ authorities on active shooter training, disarming IEDs, and search-and-seizure patrols around the border. US border control agencies will likely deploy passive intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance methods to detect and arrest illegal migrants, compensating for the lack of cooperation.
Date: October 4, 2023
Location: Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Parties Involved: Wisconsin governor Tony Evers; US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI); Wisconsin Capitol Police; domestic extremist The event: Wisconsin Capitol Police arrested a man who entered the Capitol building, illegally open carrying a handgun, demanding to see Evers to discuss “domestic abuse of men.” After being released on bail, he returned with a high-capacity semi-automatic rifle and was placed in police custody again. Law enforcement suspects the man previously spoke about his grievances on a previous podcast detailing his militant views. Governor Tony Evers was on the hit list of a shooter who killed a retired Wisconsin judge in 2022. Evers did not comment on reevaluating security protocols.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The Wisconsin governor's office will likely tighten security controls before entering Capitol buildings. Preliminary security checks such as bag and body searches will likely occur before the gates to major political buildings, ensuring visitors do not illegally carry weapons. In the upcoming weeks, security teams will very likely instruct guards on site to restrain any passerby with suspicious behavior. There is a roughly even chance that Capitol buildings will reinforce physical and personal security combined with limited entrances, likely allowing strict control of entry points in case of a copycat attack.
The FBI will likely investigate the suspect’s ties to incel forums and misogynist discourse. Authorities will very likely trace back the suspect's source for acquiring illicit weapons, tracking local suppliers and online dealers. The FBI will almost certainly monitor known anti-government and misogynist forums to track users approving of these attacks and very likely use this information to intercept future similar attacks.
[1] “Mexico / US Pacific Ocean Border Fence” by Tony Webster via Flickr licensed under CC BY 2.0 Deed
[2] 2 Mexican migrants shot dead, 3 injured in dawn attack on US border near Tecate, Mexico, AP News, September 2023, https://apnews.com/article/mexico-migrants-killed-tecate-death-shot-cbd4669c1fd9c1274c9f7720ef6ed84c
[3] A man seeking Wisconsin’s governor illegally brought guns into the state Capitol — twice in one day, AP News, October 2023, https://apnews.com/article/wisconsin-governor-handgun-threat-85f3a2f9fe73b505660b4f552a94cbb4