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US SOLDIERS STATIONED IN SYRIA BE ALERT AS IRANIAN PROXIES ATTACK TWO US BASES IN THE DEIR EZZOR PROVINCE; CIVILIANS BE CAUTIOUS TOO AS FUTURE ATTACKS VERY LIKELY

(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center.  The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but maybe subject to change.)  


Ludovica Leccese, Lucrezia Taddei CENTCOM/AFRICOM

Jennifer Loy, Chief Editor

December 28, 2023


Map of Syria[1]


Current Situation: In Deir Ezzor Province major incidents occurred involving Iranian-backed groups and American forces. The largest American bases in Syrian territory, located at the Al-Omar oil field and Koniko field, has been targeted by several explosions. This resulted in the deployment of American forces in the region, and the American response included attempts to use anti-aircraft weapons following the missile attack at Koniko field. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights documented 63 ground and aerial attacks by groups like the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq," linked to the ongoing Israeli aggression in Gaza. These attacks have resulted in material damage and injuries to International Coalition soldiers.[2]


Day/Time of event: December 28, 2023 / Unknown at Time of Report


What is the current threat:

  • The Iranian-backed groups targeting US forces’ bases in Syria likely increase security threats in the Deir Ezzor Province. Continuous attacks on American bases by Iranian-backed groups will likely lead to an escalation of tensions between the involved parties, likely resulting in a cycle of retaliation and counter-retaliation, raising the risk of a broader conflict.

  • Ongoing hostilities will likely lead to an increased displacement of civilians. Syrian civilians will likely seek refuge in nearby communities, placing a strain on local and neighbor resources and services. This will likely increase tensions between displaced populations and host communities, likely impacting diplomatic relations between Syria and neighboring countries.

  • The attacks will likely prompt a reassessment of military and security postures by the involved parties and their allies. This will likely lead to changes in deployment, strategies, and alliances.

  • The conflict will likely hinder humanitarian operations in the area, affecting the safety and effectiveness of aid workers. Instability in the region will likely hinder the safe and effective delivery of aid and likely strain resources for humanitarian aid organizations.


Who will it directly impact:

  • Syrian civilians

  • US forces

  • US forces in Syria

  • Iranian-backed groups carrying out the attack

 

[1] Ludovica Leccese via Google Maps

[2] Iranian-backed groups target two bases of American forces inside Syrian territory and latter responds, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, December 2023,


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