Region of Concern: United States; Ukraine; Russia
Written By Amy McGee; Edited by Claire Bracco
Date: December 9, 2022
Flag of the United States and Ukraine[1]
Event: On December 8, 2022, the United States announced its plan to send a $275 million military aid package. This will offer Ukraine new capabilities to shoot down drones improving their air defense capabilities. Not only is the government planning to include a state-of-the-art air defense system, but they are also including rockets for High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launchers made by Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N), 155mm ammunition, Humvee military vehicles, and generators. The equipment will be sent using the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), which allows the US to transfer equipment quickly without congressional approval. This aid package is coming after Russia's surge in missile strikes.[2]
Significance: The threats made by Russia about US involvement, make this military package likely to warrant increased missile strikes on Ukraine. It is likely that the US will receive backlash from both Russia for supplying aid and domestically for not getting congressional approval. It is very likely that Russian soldiers will suffer more losses due to better equipment. Russia has not been able to destroy a single HIMAR to date.[3] It is likely to impact Ukrainian defense strategy to allow focus more on ground support. It is likely that because the US is helping Ukraine, Russia will seek additional assistance from Belarus to bolster its military capability.
Recommendations: The United States should continue to supply aid to Ukraine while remaining physically out of the war. If Russian attacks increase because of this package, the Ukrainian government must continue providing the public with information pertaining to safe locations, shelters, etc. Global humanitarian organizations such as International SOS and Doctors without Borders should be utilized to rescue individuals stuck inside war-torn areas. They should supply food and shelter to the citizens of Ukraine that are struggling to find safety. Ukraine should gather and produce more military equipment as the war may become a protracted conflict. Ukraine should utilize its cyber capabilities to attack Russia's critical infrastructure to gain a strategic advantage. Finally, the United States should encourage European partners to continue the financial and physical arms supply to Ukraine.
[1]“Flag of the United States and Ukraine” by Andrew J.Kurbiko licensed under CC0 1.0
[2] U.S. to send Ukraine anti-drone, air defense aid worth $275 million, Reuters, 2022 https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-send-ukraine-anti-drone-air-defense-aid-worth-275-million-2022-12-08/
[3] Pentagon will pay to upgrade dozens of Soviet-era tanks for Ukraine, Politico, 2022 https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/04/pentagon-will-pay-to-upgrade-dozens-of-soviet-era-tanks-for-ukraine-00065203