POI: Ethan Crumbley
Beatriz Adell Quesada, Angeliki Siafaka, Diana Smith, Behavior/Leadership (B/L) Team
Cassandra Townsend, Clea Guastavino, Senior Editors
Ethan Crumbley[1]
Summary
On November 30, 2021, 15-year-old Ethan Crumbley executed a mass shooting at the Oxford High School in Oxford, Michigan, US, killing four people and wounding seven others.[2] After conducting an analysis on Crumbley, the following assessments have been reached. Based on the information publicly available at the time of this report, it is appropriate to classify this attack as an act of terrorism due to the terror it generated. The target of the attack was the Oxford High School and Crumbley’s choice of target was likely connected to a personal grievance. Crumbley almost certainly acted alone and his goal was very likely to maximize his death count before being apprehended. While investigators have not yet determined the motive of the attack, Crumbley was very likely motivated by his violent fantasies to commit a mass killing. However, if more information becomes available, the Counterterrorism Group (CTG) may reassess the goal and motive of the attack. Crumbley’s attack is very likely to inspire copycat attacks as there has been a surge in copycat threats of violence against schools across the US following the Oxford High School shooting, which are likely to persist. This attack highlights the importance of taking troubling juvenile behavior more seriously, although a more cautious approach towards threats made against schools is likely to lead to more school closures that will almost certainly create learning disruptions and aggravate students’ sense of insecurity.
Event Overview
On Tuesday, November 30, 2021, a juvenile gunman killed four people and wounded seven others in Oxford High School, Michigan. The shooter came out of a school bathroom brandishing a 9mm Sig Sauer semiautomatic handgun which he very likely brought to school inside his backpack, and started firing shots at students in the school corridors. The attack was first reported at 1251 local time and over 100 more calls were made to the emergency services within the first minutes of the attack.[3] The suspect surrendered at 1256 local time when he was confronted by deputies in the school hallway. A total of 30 shots were fired during the attack. No shots were fired during his arrest, although the suspect still had 18 rounds of ammunition.[4] Two students were killed during the attack, a third one died in a sheriff’s car on the way to the hospital, and another one died the next day while in hospital.[5] All four were aged between 14 and 17 years old. Six other students within the same age group were injured during the attack, as was a 47-year-old teacher.[6] The authorities identified the suspect as 15-year-old Ethan Crumbley. On December 1, 2021, Crumbley was charged with four counts of first-degree murder, one count of terrorism, seven counts of assault with intent to murder, and 12 counts of possession of a firearm during the commission of a felony.[7]
POI Overview - Items of Interest
Ethan Crumbley lived in Oxford, Michigan with his parents James Crumbley, 45 years old, and Jennifer Crumbley, 43 years old.[8] Below are some items of interest that will identify observable indicators and characteristics to determine if there was a chance to prevent this attack.
When Crumbley was about eight years old, a neighbor called Child Protective Services (CPS) on the Crumbley family, but any actions taken following the complaint are unknown as CPS reports are confidential.[9]
The Crumbleys were in financial trouble and they were more than $11,000 behind in house payments. Crumbley’s parents allegedly spent significant time away from the home and Jennifer Crumbley was having an affair.[10]
Crumbley allegedly tortured animals and kept a baby bird’s head in a jar in his bedroom.[11]
The prosecutors said that in the six months prior to the attack, Crumbley’s only friend moved away and his dog died, resulting in depression.[12]
Crumbley allegedly kept a journal where he described his fantasies of committing violence against the students at his school.[13]
Crumbley’s parents gifted him the gun used in the attack as an early Christmas present four days prior to the attack, which he showed on his Instagram.[14]
His mother took him to the shooting range the weekend prior to the incident.[15]
On the day before the shooting, Crumbley’s teachers sent him to the school counselor because he was searching online for ammunition during class. Following this incident, his mother texted him saying “LOL, I’m not mad at you. You have to learn not to get caught.”[16]
On the night before the attack, Crumbley made two videos talking about his plans to execute an attack at his school.[17]
Hours prior to the attack he wrote on his Instagram “now I become death- destroyer of worlds - see you tomorrow Oxford.”[18]
Parents and students said that there were rumors of the attack and some students chose not to attend school on November 30, 2021 because they “felt like something was going to go down.”[19]
The prosecutors said that Crumbley was seen watching violent shooting videos on the day of the attack.[20]
On the morning of the attack, Crumbley’s parents were called into the school for a meeting because drawings of a handgun, a bullet, and a shooting victim with a laughing emoji and the words “the thoughts won’t stop, help me,” “my life is useless,” “the world is dead,” and “blood everywhere” were found on his math worksheet.[21]
After the teacher found the drawings, he erased the drawing of the gun and the writings saying “blood everywhere,” “help me,” “my life is useless,” “the world is dead,” and instead he wrote “I love my life so much!!!!,” “video game this is,” “OHS rocks!,” “we’re all friends here,” and “harmless act.”[22]
Crumbley convinced the superintendent and the school counselors that his drawings were for a video game that he was supposedly designing.[23] The school superintendent said, “At no time did counselors believe the student might harm others based on his behavior, responses and demeanor, which appeared calm.”[24]
During the meeting, school officials asked Crumbley’s parents to take him out of school but they refused; they were also instructed to provide him counseling within 48 hours.[25] Prosecutors believe that Crumbley already had the gun in his backpack during this meeting. School officials did not search his backpack, allowing him to return to class.[26]
At the time of the arrest, Crumbley still had 18 rounds of ammunition left.[29]
Crumbley’s parents were charged with four counts of involuntary manslaughter because they gave Crumbley total access to the gun used in the shooting.[30] Before they were arrested, they allegedly ran from the authorities but were tracked down and arrested on December 4, 2021. The parents paid for two attorneys for themselves but declined to pay for one for Crumbley.[31]
The prosecutors argued that Crumbley’s parents willfully disregarded warning signs even though they were allegedly aware that Crumbley was obsessed with guns, was depressed, and was torturing animals, while he was sending disturbing texts that showed his state of mind to his mother.[32]
Crumbley was put on suicide watch when imprisoned.[33]
Left: Picture of Crumbley’s Drawings Taken by the Teacher who Found Them; Right: Picture of Crumbley’s Drawings Taken after He Altered Them[34]
Observable Indicators and Characteristics
To indicate whether this event was a lone-actor terrorist attack, CTG has assessed Ethan Crumbley using the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP-18), a structured professional judgment instrument for those engaged in risk assessment of persons of concern for acts of terrorist violence. The TRAP-18 consists of 8 proximal warning behaviors and 10 distal characteristics which have been displayed throughout past terrorist attacks (for more information about the scientific method, validity, current usage of the TRAP-18, and definitions of the behaviors and characteristics, see the provided source).[35]
Only the evidence which has been proven and confirmed are checked on this list. Unchecked boxes may or may not have been exhibited by the POI but are, for now, unknown.
Classification as Terrorism
According to the creators of the TRAP-18, the majority of lone actors were positive on 13 of 18 TRAP-18 variables (72%).[38] These individuals showed a frequency of >70% on the distal factors of personal grievance and moral outrage, framed by an ideology, thwarting of occupational goals, and changes in thinking and emotion, and 77% or more on the four proximal warning behaviors, namely pathway, fixation, identification, and leakage.[39] This means that lone-actor terrorists tend to display a pattern of common pre-attack behaviors that distinguish them from other criminals. While this is not a fool-proof method, using the TRAP-18, the Behavior/Leadership (B/L) Team can compare Ethan Crumbley’s traits to those of known lone-actor terrorists to help determine whether this attack was a terrorist act or simply motivated by a personal grievance.
Based on publicly available information, Crumbley displayed six total indicators that align with other lone-actor terrorists, indicating a few similarities between Crumbley’s behavior and the behaviors displayed by terrorists. However, some of the distal characteristics such as the Thwarting of Occupational Goals, the Criminal Violence history, and the Failure of Sexually Intimate Pair Bonding are very unlikely to be evidenced by a perpetrator of his age. If only proximal warning behaviors are considered, Crumbley displayed six out of eight indicators, aligning him with the 77% of terrorists that evidenced four or more out of the eight proximal warning behaviors. Crumbley was charged with one count of terrorism; Karen McDonald, the Oakland County Prosecutor, said that the terrorism charge intends to bring justice to all the people affected by the mass shooting, considering all the students of the Oxford High School and the community as victims of this attack.[40] At the time of this report, there is no information to suggest that Crumbley’s attack was ideologically motivated or aimed to send a broader message and serve political objectives. However, due to the prevalence of proximal warning behaviors, the terror that this attack generated, and the subsequent emotional impact on the community, CTG assesses that it is appropriate to classify this attack as an act of terrorism.
Target and Goal
The target of the attack was the Oxford High School in Michigan. Information regarding Crumbley’s motivations for targeting his school is not available at the time of this report. However, Crumbley’s choice of target was likely motivated by a personal grievance which he associated with the school. According to prosecutors, Crumbley’s only friend moved away in the months preceding the attack.[41] This suggests that Crumbley very likely felt lonely during his time at school. As schools are places where children typically socialize and make friends, Crumbley likely felt overwhelmed having to regularly watch his peers build friendships if he experienced difficulties connecting with them. His social isolation very likely led him to feel rejected by his peers, causing him to breed resentment towards them and towards Oxford High School as a whole. Resentment towards his school very likely motivated him to choose it as the target of his violent fantasies. According to Sheriff Michael Bouchard, footage from a security camera indicates that Crumbley’s individual targets during the attack were likely random.[42] His seemingly random target selection and his fantasy that there would be “blood everywhere” suggest that Crumbley’s goal was very likely to maximize his death count before being apprehended. There were no other perpetrators found or described at the crime scene; Crumbley almost certainly acted alone.
Motive
Crumbley was very likely motivated by his violent fantasies to commit a mass killing. He made disturbing drawings of a gun and a bullet and journal entries that detailed his desire to kill people.[43] The prosecutors said that he had developed a fixation with firearms and was watching violent videos of shootings.[44] Crumbley’s psychological preoccupation with murder and his obsession with guns very likely demonstrate his violent fantasies. It appears that Crumbley had persistent homicidal ideation and the increasingly intrusive thoughts of harming people very likely led him to plan and perpetrate a mass shooting. The prosecutors stated that Crumbley was torturing animals and he kept the head of a baby bird in a jar in his bedroom.[45] Animal cruelty in adolescents is associated with psychopathic traits, indicates a lack of empathy, and is also connected to an escalation towards violence against people.[46] Crumbley’s possible lack of empathy very likely contributed to his desire to hurt people, likely making it easier for him to further develop homicidal ideations and to want to execute his violent fantasies. The animal torture likely suggests that he was testing his ability to commit violence, preparing to inflict harm on people. If he felt rejected by his peers, resentment towards them likely led him to perceive the school as a suitable location for realizing his violent fantasies, likely expecting that retaliation against his peers would alleviate his resentment. His violent fantasies, his perceived readiness, and his finding of a suitable target very likely jointly triggered the attack.
Conspiracy Theories and Copycats
There is no information regarding Crumbley’s belief or involvement in conspiracy theories at the time of this report. It is also unclear whether this was a copycat attack. The prosecutors said that Crumbley was watching videos of shootings prior to the attack.[47] This behavior could likely indicate that he was inspired by previous attacks and school shootings, although it is difficult to assess this possibility as the investigators have not revealed any details about the videos in question. The Oakland County prosecutor said that there is substantial evidence to suggest that this attack was premeditated.[48] Crumbley’s psychological preoccupation with violence makes it likely that he could have been researching previous mass shooters in preparation for his attack. His possible homicidal ideation and fixation with guns likely suggest that he could have developed an admiration for previous attackers.
Following the Oxford High School shooting, there has been a significant surge in copycat threats of violence against schools across the US, while TikTok trends that include threats of school shootings and a challenge to post threats on social media have become viral nationwide.[49] Crumbley’s attack is very likely to inspire copycat attacks and the mentioned threats are very likely to continue to increase. The missed opportunities to prevent this attack are likely to be a contributing factor encouraging potential attackers. Crumbley’s attack was the deadliest school shooting on a K-12 campus in the US since 2018.[50] As this is a high-profile shooting that will very likely continue to attract media attention, it is very likely to inspire copycats who are motivated by a need to achieve notoriety. The influx of copycat threats at schools that very likely include a large number of non-credible threats is likely to create confusion, making it more difficult for law enforcement to detect serious threats. False threats posted as jokes on social media are likely to provide potential copycat attackers with the opportunity to go unnoticed and motivate them to prepare attacks.
Future Implications
The incident underscores the importance of taking disturbing juvenile behavior seriously, particularly when it comes to juveniles with known access to firearms. Considering that Crumbley had a meeting with school officials regarding his concerning behavior on the day of the attack and that he was very likely in possession of the handgun during the meeting, the attack could have very likely been prevented if the school had searched for weapons in Crumbley’s backpack or if they had referred him to law enforcement. Oxford High School will very likely take a stronger stance on disturbing juvenile behavior going forward. It is also likely to implement preventative measures such as an increase in private security personnel patrolling school grounds and frequent bag checks or the setting up of metal detectors at the school entrance. Due to the traumatic nature of the attack, the school will very likely hire a large number of counselors and mental health professionals in an effort to minimize disruption to child witnesses’ learning experience. Considering that Crumbley’s gun had allegedly been kept unlocked in his parents’ bedroom, the school is also likely to launch an awareness campaign aimed at informing parents of the importance of safely storing weapons. The high-profile nature of the attack, the likely legal repercussions for the school, and the damage done to the school’s reputation have likely reminded schools across the US that active shooter incidents remain a very real threat with very serious implications. This suggests that other schools across the US will likely implement some of the mentioned preventative measures to reduce the chances that an attack of this kind will be conducted on their own school grounds.
The emergence of TikTok trends challenging children to take weapons to school and to make school shooting threats on social media is likely to render schools across the US more vulnerable to fake shooting threats. A more cautious approach towards disturbing juvenile behavior is likely to lead to more school closures than would be warranted. School closures that are triggered by active shooter threats almost certainly create learning disruptions and very likely aggravate students’ sense of insecurity by reminding them of an ever-present risk, jeopardizing their learning experience. To reduce the frequency of school closures and to protect themselves from accusations that associate them with active shooter incidents, social media platforms such as TikTok are likely to devote greater time and resources to monitoring content on their platform so that any content encouraging children to bring weapons to school or to make school shooting threats is taken down promptly.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) has become the global leader in proactively fighting terrorist organizations around the world. CTG specializes in intelligence collection, and analysis, as well as investigative work to counterterrorism. CTG resources are delivered to advise clients on a business resilience process using current threat intelligence data. We scan for threats across the following regions; Africa, Central Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Asia-Pacific. Our organization assesses evolving threats through, Worldwide Analysis of Threats, Crime, and Hazards (W.A.T.C.H.) services. Our W.A.T.C.H Officers and Digital Targeters monitor the threat posed by cyber threats, insider threats, fraud, espionage, hazards, reputational damages, violent crime, kidnappings, and bombing threats. To find out more about our products and W.A.T.C.H. services visit us at counterterrorismgroup.com.
________________________________________________________________________ The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
[1] A probable cause hearing has been set for #EthanCrumbley for January 7, 2022!, Twitter, December 30, 2021, https://twitter.com/Kim_Hadder_/status/1476569240815685636?s=20
[2] Authorities look for motive with 15-year-old Michigan high school shooting suspect in custody. Here's what we know, CNN, December 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/01/us/oxford-high-school-shooting-what-we-know/index.html
[3] Michigan school shooting: Student kills four and wounds seven, BBC, December 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59484333
[4] Authorities look for motive with 15-year-old Michigan high school shooting suspect in custody. Here's what we know, CNN, December 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/01/us/oxford-high-school-shooting-what-we-know/index.html
[5] What We Know About the Michigan High School Shooting, The New York Times, December 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/article/oxford-school-shooting-michigan.html
[6] Ibid
[7] Authorities look for motive with 15-year-old Michigan high school shooting suspect in custody. Here's what we know, CNN, December 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/01/us/oxford-high-school-shooting-what-we-know/index.html
[8] What We Know About the Michigan High School Shooting, The New York Times, December 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/article/oxford-school-shooting-michigan.html
[9]James and Jennifer Crumbley join son in custody after late-night capture in Detroit, Detroit Free Press, December 2021, https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/12/05/james-and-jennifer-crumbley-ethan-oxford-high-shooting/8867284002/
[10] What We Know About the Michigan High School Shooting, The New York Times, December 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/article/oxford-school-shooting-michigan.html
[11] Michigan shooting suspect's parents willfully disregarded signs that their son was a threat, prosecutors say, CNN, December 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/24/us/michigan-school-shooting-suspect-parents/index.html
[12] Ethan Crumbley’s mother was having an affair while ignoring son’s ‘troubling’ behaviour, say prosecutors, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-mother-affair-oxford-school-shooting-b1982040.html
[13] Ethan Crumbley: Everything we know about the Michigan school shooting suspect, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/michigan-shooting-suspect-ethan-crumbley-b1975865.html
[14] Ethan Crumbley’s mother was having an affair while ignoring son’s ‘troubling’ behaviour, say prosecutors, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-mother-affair-oxford-school-shooting-b1982040.html
[15] Ethan Crumbley: Everything we know about the Michigan school shooting suspect, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/michigan-shooting-suspect-ethan-crumbley-b1975865.html
[16] Ibid
[17] Ibid
[18] Ibid
[19] Michigan school shooting: Student kills four and wounds seven, BBC, December 2021, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59484333
[20] Ethan Crumbley’s mother was having an affair while ignoring son’s ‘troubling’ behaviour, say prosecutors, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-mother-affair-oxford-school-shooting-b1982040.html
[21] What We Know About the Michigan High School Shooting, The New York Times, December 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/article/oxford-school-shooting-michigan.html
[22] Ethan Crumbley’s mother was having an affair while ignoring son’s ‘troubling’ behaviour, say prosecutors, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-mother-affair-oxford-school-shooting-b1982040.html
[23] Ethan Crumbley: Everything we know about the Michigan school shooting suspect, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/michigan-shooting-suspect-ethan-crumbley-b1975865.html
[24] What We Know About the Michigan High School Shooting, The New York Times, December 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/article/oxford-school-shooting-michigan.html
[25] Ibid
[26] Ethan Crumbley: Everything we know about the Michigan school shooting suspect, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/michigan-shooting-suspect-ethan-crumbley-b1975865.html
[27] Probable cause hearing for Michigan high school shooting suspect Ethan Crumbley postponed until January 7, CNN, December 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/13/us/michigan-school-shooting-ethan-crumbley-probable-cause-hearing/index.html
[28] What We Know About the Michigan High School Shooting, The New York Times, December 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/article/oxford-school-shooting-michigan.html
[29] Sheriff: Oxford High School shooting suspect had 18 rounds of unused ammunition, Detroit Free Press, December 2021, https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/oakland/2021/12/01/oxford-high-school-shooting-suspect-update-oakland-county-sheriff/8824557002/
[30] Ibid
[31] Oxford school shooting: Ethan Crumbley’s parents in court in shackles as state says evidence is ‘staggering,’ The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-parents-court-oxford-shooting-b1976060.html
[32] Ethan Crumbley’s mother was having an affair while ignoring son’s ‘troubling’ behaviour, say prosecutors, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-mother-affair-oxford-school-shooting-b1982040.html
[33] 4 dead, 7 injured in Oxford High School shooting; suspect is 15-year-old student, Detroit Free Press, December 2021, https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/oakland/2021/11/30/oxford-high-school-active-shooter-victims/8810588002/
[34] Ethan Crumbley’s class drawings that concerned his teachers. Before meeting with the school counselor and his parents, he altered the drawings. Before & After:, Twitter, December 24, 2021, https://twitter.com/JURYR00M/status/1474252176545493023?s=20
[35] “Assessing the threat of lone-actor terrorism: the reliability and validity of the TRAP-18,” Forensische Psychiatrie, Psychologie, Kriminologie, 2020, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149273/
[36] Ethan Crumbley: Everything we know about the Michigan school shooting suspect, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/michigan-shooting-suspect-ethan-crumbley-b1975865.html
[37] Ibid
[38] “Assessing the threat of lone-actor terrorism: the reliability and validity of the TRAP-18,” Forensische Psychiatrie, Psychologie, Kriminologie, 2020, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7149273/
[39] Ibid
[40] Here's why the suspected Michigan school shooter has been charged with terrorism, CNN, December 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/01/us/michigan-deadly-shooting-terrorism-charge/index.html
[41] Ethan Crumbley’s mother was having an affair while ignoring son’s ‘troubling’ behaviour, say prosecutors, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-mother-affair-oxford-school-shooting-b1982040.html
[42] What We Know About the Michigan High School Shooting, The New York Times, December 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/article/oxford-school-shooting-michigan.html
[43] Ethan Crumbley: Everything we know about the Michigan school shooting suspect, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/michigan-shooting-suspect-ethan-crumbley-b1975865.html
[44] Ethan Crumbley’s mother was having an affair while ignoring son’s ‘troubling’ behaviour, say prosecutors, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-mother-affair-oxford-school-shooting-b1982040.html
[45] Michigan shooting suspect's parents willfully disregarded signs that their son was a threat, prosecutors say, CNN, December 2021, https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/24/us/michigan-school-shooting-suspect-parents/index.html
[46] “Associations Among Cruelty to Animals, Family Conflict, and Psychopathic Traits in Childhood,” Journal of Interpersonal Violence, 2006, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0886260505283341
[47] Ethan Crumbley’s mother was having an affair while ignoring son’s ‘troubling’ behaviour, say prosecutors, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/ethan-crumbley-mother-affair-oxford-school-shooting-b1982040.html
[48] Ethan Crumbley: Everything we know about the Michigan school shooting suspect, The Independent, December 2021, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/crime/michigan-shooting-suspect-ethan-crumbley-b1975865.html
[49] School threats and social media hoaxes are forcing closures, time-consuming investigations, The Washington Post, December 2021, https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2021/12/20/school-threats-oxford-shooting-tiktok/
[50] Authorities look for motive with 15-year-old Michigan high school shooting suspect in custody. Here's what we know, CNN, December 2021, https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/01/us/oxford-high-school-shooting-what-we-know/index.html