EXILED NICARAGUAN GOVERNMENT CRITIC KILLED IN COSTA RICA AND ISIS SUICIDE BOMBER TARGETS A CHURCH IN SYRIA

June 19-25, 2025 | Issue 23 - Extremism Team

Katya Burklin, Julia Eder, Jacob Robison, Kseniya Luzhko, Tate English

Sakura Morales Furuta, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor 

Assailant Outside the Victim’s Residence[1]

Date: June 19, 2025

Location: San Jose, Costa Rica

Parties involved: Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega; Nicaragua; Ortega administration; pro-Nicaraguan government actors; pro-Nicaraguan government armed group turbas sandinistas; pro-Nicaraguan government armed group parapolicia; Nicaraguan exiled opposition parties; Nicaraguan exiled pro-democracy party Democratic Renewal Union (UNAMOS); Nicaraguan exiled political activists; former Nicaraguan military officer and exiled government critic Roberto Samcam; dissidents; Nicaraguan diaspora communities; international courts; Costa Rica

The event: An unidentified assailant killed Samcam, marking another assassination attempt against a Nicaraguan government critic in exile.[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• The assassination of Samcam will very likely signal to regime-aligned actors that politically motivated violence conducted outside judicial oversight is a tolerated method of suppressing dissent. Pro-Nicaraguan actors, such as the turbas sandinistas and parapolicias, will likely interpret the regime’s silence following the killing as implicit approval, reinforcing their belief that extraterritorial operations against dissidents carry minimal risk of state censure or retaliation. This perceived tolerance will very likely normalize extraterritorial violence, such as harassment and physical attacks on exiled dissidents, within pro-government networks, encouraging these groups to enhance coordination and broaden their actions beyond isolated incidents. This growing operational confidence will likely enable more sophisticated cross-border activities, including intelligence gathering on diaspora communities and the creation of informal networks to target prominent opposition figures in host countries, such as Costa Rica.

• The targeted killing will likely reduce engagement in transnational opposition campaigning by parties such as the UNAMOS, likely weakening efforts to expose Nicaraguan state violence. This assassination will likely instill fear in high-profile exiled political activists about similar attacks, likely encouraging them to reduce their visibility and overt participation in opposition parties. This reduced public engagement will likely weaken coordinated opposition campaigning, including publishing reports about state repression and torture, likely limiting evidence production and international visibility of the Ortega administration’s repressive practices. The decline in such evidence and awareness will likely weaken the ability of international courts to hold the Ortega government accountable and exercise oversight on human rights violations, likely allowing it to operate with minimal scrutiny for politically motivated violence, including targeted assassinations.  

Date: June 22, 2025

Location: Damascus, Syria

Parties involved: Syria; Syrian transitional government (STG); pro-Assad armed opposition coalition Military Council to Liberate Syria; pro-Assad groups; former regime loyalists; Syrian religious minority worshippers; Syrian minority religious groups Christian, Alawite, and Druze; Christian worshippers; non-Islamic individuals in Syria; Syrian civilians; Syrian independent militias; demobilized soldiers from the former Assad administration; pan-Islamist militant organization Al-Qaeda; Salafi jihadist terrorist organization Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS); ISIS-affiliate; online disinformation channels; fake social media accounts run by Assad supporters

The event: A suspected ISIS-affiliate detonated a suicide bomb in a church in the first terrorist attack following the ousting of Assad’s regime, killing at least 20 people.[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• Pro-Assad groups will very likely exploit the suicide bombing to spread fear among minority groups in an attempt to destabilize the STG. Assad loyalists, such as the Military Council to Liberate Syria, will very likely portray the attack on Christian worshippers as part of a broader security failure, very likely invoking the STG’s former al-Qaeda affiliation to suggest state support for jihadism. Online disinformation channels and fake social media accounts run by Assad supporters will almost certainly amplify these narratives, very likely fueling distrust in authorities among Christian, Alawite, and Druze minority groups. This distrust will very likely drive minority groups to form independent militias with demobilized soldiers from the former Assad administration for protection, very likely weakening the state’s monopoly on force and creating openings for emerging insurgency movements from former regime loyalists.  

• This attack will very likely discourage religious minority worshippers from practicing in Syria, likely compelling them to emigrate to countries with fewer perceived obstacles surrounding religious freedom. Religious minority worshippers in the region, such as Christians, will very likely avoid attending church services and publicly displaying their beliefs due to a heightened fear of persecution and targeted attacks. These individuals, almost certainly motivated by a perceived lack of religious protections from the Islamist-led government, will likely consider emigration as a solution to ensure continuity of their faith traditions without the threat of a potential forced assimilation. This migration will likely expose remaining non-Islamic individuals to more direct persecution, including extrajudicial punishment and killings, as their reduced numbers will likely diminish their collective ability to advocate for their protection, deepening Syria's overall diversity crisis.

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[1] Unidentified assailant in front of house in Costa Rica, generated by a third party image database (created by AI)

[2] Nicaraguan ex-military officer killed in exile in Costa Rica, Reuters, June 2025, https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/nicaraguan-ex-military-officer-killed-exile-wife-party-say-2025-06-19/

[3] Suicide bomber targets Damascus church, kills at least 20 worshippers; Syria blames ISIS, Hindustan Times, June 2025, https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/suicide-bomber-targets-damascus-church-kills-at-least-15-worshippers-syria-blames-islamic-states-101750614220182.html