IN GUATEMALA, UNKNOWN ASSAILANTS KILLED A JOURNALIST IN A TARGETED ATTACK, AND A GROUP OF THIEVES IMPERSONATED ROADWORK PERSONNEL TO ACCESS CHILEAN SUBTERRANEAN INFRASTRUCTURE AND STEAL COPPER CABLES

April 30-May 6, 2026 | Issue 18 - SOUTHCOM Team

Christian Jackson, Dominic Perfetti, Julia Ruiz Redel, Michela Sereno, Noah Clarke, Matthew George, Sharon Preci, Aristide Devevey, Jacob Robinson  

Ben Joshua Gentemann, Editor; Clémence Van Damme, Senior Editor

Journalist Taking Photo with a Camera^[1]

Date: April 29, 2026

Location: San Cristobal Verapaz, Alta Verapaz Department, Guatemala

Parties involved: Guatemala; government; state actors; media outlets; reporters; journalists; journalist Carlos Humberto Cal Ical; non-state actors; crime groups; perpetrators; unknown assailants; political elites; rural communities; society

The event: Unknown assailants killed Cal Ical in a targeted attack near his home.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• The targeted killing of Cal Ical will very likely reinforce the use of targeted and strategic violence against investigative journalists, likely deterring coverage of issues that challenge established authority arrangements. This dynamic will likely involve perpetrators monitoring journalists reporting on sensitive topics such as corruption and environmental exploitation tied to political elites, likely enabling attacks during predictable routines or periods of reduced visibility. This sustained threat environment will likely increase journalists’ perception of personal risk, likely constraining their ability to operate safely in high-threat information environments. Reporters will very likely avoid pursuing investigations into high-risk topics, likely limiting the continuity of reporting on local political abuses and reinforcing established influence networks through reduced public exposure.

• Targeted attacks on journalists covering organized crime in rural communities will very likely hinder effective independent reporting, likely weakening constraints on criminal operations. This decline in crime-focused reporting will likely create an information vacuum, likely limiting state awareness of local conditions through increased reliance on incomplete information environments. Local crime groups will likely fill these information gaps by taking control of media reporting, likely shaping intelligence flows, and suppressing unfavorable coverage of criminal operations. This control over local narratives will likely limit the flow of reliable information to society, likely allowing crime structures to thrive by constraining the identification and response to criminal activity in these areas.

• The killing of a journalist by unknown assailants will likely expose weaknesses in accountability mechanisms for perpetrators of press violence, likely enabling state actors to restrict transparency around corruption and government overreach. Incomplete criminal investigations will likely signal that violence against journalists carries limited consequences, likely contributing to the normalization of violence and harassment by non-state and government actors to silence media outlets with impunity. Violence as a normalized tool for silencing dissent will likely incentivize state actors to rely on deterrence rather than legal restrictions to limit unfavorable investigative reporting, likely undermining the media’s role as an independent actor within broader systems of checks and balances. Weakened systems of accountability within Guatemalan society will very likely facilitate future instances of state corruption and overreach that journalists would otherwise expose in a safe press climate.

Date: May 3, 2026

Location: Valparaiso, Valparaiso Region, Chile

Parties involved: Chile; law enforcement; authorities; public services; organized criminal groups; criminal groups; criminal actors; opportunistic  criminal actors; thieves; roadwork personnel; affected populations

The event: A group of thieves impersonated roadwork personnel and staged maintenance activity to access subterranean infrastructure and extract copper cables.^[3]

Analysis & Implications:

• Criminal actors will likely continue to exploit the fragmented oversight of critical infrastructure to expand copper theft operations, likely disrupting the provision of essential services. Gaps between regulated roadwork procedures and on-the-ground monitoring will likely strain law enforcement verification efforts, likely enabling criminal groups to sustain repeated access to infrastructure systems through delays in authorities’ detection of unauthorized activity. This repeated targeting will likely increase damage to critical infrastructure components such as electrical and telecommunications cables, likely resulting in higher disruption frequency and service outages. Recurring disruptions to public services will likely undermine consistent access to essential utilities, likely exposing affected populations to criminal extortion for access to limited services. 

• Chilean organized criminal groups will likely continue to control large-scale copper theft operations, likely reinforcing their operational advantage over opportunistic criminal actors. Increasing enforcement pressure, such as the creation of the special copper task force, will likely reduce the viability of opportunistic theft, likely concentrating illegal material extraction among criminal groups equipped to carry out more complex operations. Criminal groups’ deployment of sophisticated disguises and advanced technological tools such as drones and signal jammers will very likely strengthen their extraction capacity, likely allowing them to sufficiently plan and execute large-scale operations. Expanded criminal capabilities will likely increase illegal revenue streams, likely reinforcing a cycle of capacity growth that expands organized crime groups’ black market networks and enables more powerful, large-scale operations.

• The impersonation of roadworkers during copper theft will likely enable criminal actors to maintain sustained access to urban infrastructure, very likely increasing extraction efficiency while reducing detection risk. By replicating legitimate roadwork conditions and visual indicators of authorized municipal maintenance activity, criminal groups will likely operate in plain sight, likely delaying verification and reducing the likelihood of immediate law enforcement intervention. This delay will likely extend on-site presence and improve coordination, likely allowing criminal actors to extract larger quantities of material while maintaining control over the operational environment. Sustained operational control and reduced disruption risk will likely weaken patrol-based detection efforts, likely enabling criminal groups to repeatedly conduct large-scale copper extraction operations.  

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[1] Journalist, generated by a third-party database (This image pixelation has been enhanced by a third-party.)

[2] The murder of a journalist in Guatemala sparks international condemnation, Infobae, April 2026, https://www.infobae.com/guatemala/2026/04/30/el-asesinato-de-un-periodista-en-guatemala-genera-condena-internacional/  (translated by Google)

[3] They made perforations to the pavement to enter the tunnel: They arrest a gang that stole copper pretending to be workers, Meganoticias, May 2026, https://www.meganoticias.cl/nacional/521055-detienen-banda-falsos-trabajadores-robaban-cobre-valparaiso-03-05-2026.html (translated by Google)