MALAYSIAN AUTHORITIES ARRESTED MIGRANT SMUGGLERS, AND IN AUSTRALIA, THE ONE NATION PARTY PROMISED TO STOP MASS MIGRATION

May 7-13, 2026 | Issue 19 - PACOM

Brendan Malcarne, Lucy Gibson, PACOM Team

Elena Alice Rossetti, Senior Editor

Migrants at Sea^[1]

Date: May 7, 2026

Location: Telok Senangin, Pelak State, Malaysia

Parties involved: Malaysia; Malaysian authorities; Parliament of Malaysia; Intelligence and Special Operations Division of the Immigration Department of Malaysia; Malaysian coast guard Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency (MMEA); Perak Immigration Department; coastal immigration departments; law enforcement officers; aw enforcement officials; policemen; senior immigration officer; local police officers; labor inspectors; Indonesian smugglers; Indonesian citizens; migrant smuggler syndicates; smugglers; illegal immigrants; migrants; smuggled immigrants

The event: Malaysian authorities arrested smugglers and 20 Indonesian citizens attempting to enter Malaysia illegally via sea.^[2]

Analysis & Implications:

• Malaysia will very likely strengthen its ability to detect migrant smuggler syndicates by increasing the inspection powers of its law enforcement officers. Malaysia will likely grant coastal immigration departments the authority to conduct more frequent and thorough inspections of fishing boats with suspicious activity, such as small and fast boats operating overnight or seemingly overcrowded vessels. The Parliament of Malaysia will likely amend its immigration laws to allow local police officers to stop and search boats or smuggled immigrants without the permission of a senior immigration officer. The Intelligence and Special Operations Division of the Immigration Department of Malaysia will likely enhance training law enforcement officials, such as policemen and labor inspectors, with routine smuggling identification and immigration checkpoint procedure training, very likely increasing Malaysia’s capacity to identify smugglers’ syndicates.

• Indonesian smugglers will very likely alter their tactics to elude the increased Malaysian anti-smuggling operations, likely worsening the safety and human rights of illegal immigrants. Smugglers will very likely look for alternative routes to reach Perak State, likely extending navigation routes to deviate from well-known hotspots that the Perak Immigration Department might monitor. Smugglers will likely keep using fishing vessels and compromise their geolocalization software to avoid detection from the MMEA, with unregistered vessels likely increasing the risk of collisions and delayed search-and-rescue operations in case of emergencies. An increase in navigation time and intensified attempts at hiding migrants will likely lead to an overcrowding of fishing boats, the lack of food and water, and precarious hygiene conditions for multiple hours, very likely increasing the risk of infections and malnutrition among smuggled immigrants.

Date: May 10, 2026

Location: Australia

Parties involved: Australia; right-wing; right-wing populist party One Nation Party; One Nation’s representatives; far-right movements; anti-immigration supporters; extremist elements; immigrants; illegal immigrants; Muslim and Indian-Australian immigrants; refugees from conflict zones; ethnic and religious minorities; members of these targeted groups; like-minded communities; religious or compatriot circles; members of criticized communities; extremist members among these communities; protestors; counterprotestors; Australia’s society; criminals; lone-actor terrorists

The event: The One Nation Party promised to restrict immigration policies after winning a lower house seat.^[3] 

Analysis & Implications:

• One Nation Party's electoral win will very likely spread anti-immigration sentiments in Australia beyond historical far-right movements. One Nation’s representatives in the lower house will almost certainly call for support for the anti-immigration legislation currently on the parliament floor, likely causing rallies and protests in support of migration reforms nationwide. During protests and rallies, anti-immigration supporters will likely call for intensified immigration policies such as banning refugees from conflict zones, restricting their welfare access, and deporting illegal immigrants, with some extremist elements likely framing immigrants as potential criminals and lone-actor terrorists. Such rhetoric will likely increase targeted attacks against immigrants and their places of worship, likely raising reported incidents of hate crimes, such as vandalized property, hate speech, and harassment.

• The growing importance of immigration as a political topic will very likely increase fear and concern among ethnic and religious minorities in Australia, likely deepening grievances and resentment against the right-wing. Members of criticized communities, such as Muslim and Indian-Australian immigrants, will likely perceive increasing levels of threat with the rise of the One Nation Party, very likely feeling unwelcome and targeted. Some members of these targeted groups will likely withdraw into like-minded communities, such as religious or compatriot circles, increasing division in Australia’s society,  with a roughly even chance of intensifying altercations between protestors and counterprotestors at future anti-immigration and far-right rallies. Increased social withdrawal and resentment will very likely prompt feelings of injustice and radical beliefs among some extremist members of these communities, likely increasing the potential circulation of extremist propaganda and radicalizing materials in Australia.

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[1] Migrants at sea, generated by a third party database

[2] Immigration foils bid to smuggle 20 Indonesians into Malaysia by sea, New Strait Times, May 2026, https://www.nst.com.my/news/nation/2026/05/1435195/immigration-foils-bid-smuggle-20-indonesians-malaysia-sea 

[3] Australia's Trump-aligned populists vow to fight mass migration after winning first lower house seat, Reuters, May 2026, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-trump-aligned-populists-vow-fight-mass-migration-after-winning-first-2026-05-10/