- Jul 13
- 2 min read

TRUMP SHOT AT RALLY IN BUTLER, PA, TWO BYSTANDERS INJURED, ONE CONFIRMED DECEASED: FORMER PRESIDENT SAFE, RECEIVING MEDICAL ATTENTION AS US SECRET SERVICE INVESTIGATES SCENE

(The Situation Update Report [SUR] is a near real-time brief of a possible threat or situation being monitored by The Counter Threat Center. The information is accurate at the time of reporting, but maybe subject to change.)

Dalton Riedlbauer, Brantley Williams, Nicholas Novak, Lewis Li, Marta Vanti, Evan Beachler, Samuel Pearson

Brantley Williams, Evan Beachler, Editor; Cameron Munoz, Senior Editor

July 13, 2024

Apparent Location of the Shooting[1]

Current Situation: A shooting occurred during a Trump rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where the former President was grazed in the ear, one attendee was killed, and two were badly injured.[2] US Secret Service (USSS) claims that the former President is safe and the shooter is deceased.[3] The FBI is on the scene investigating the incident with the USSS.[4] Trump’s campaign spokesperson stated that the former president is being checked out at a local medical facility.[5] The shooter is believed to have fired from the roof of a building.[6]

Day/Time of event: July 13, 2024/Around 1815 EST

What is the current threat:

Misinformation and disinformation will almost certainly occur, likely speculating on the suspect's identity, motives, and ideology. Some of former President Trump’s opponents, including far-left activists, will almost certainly claim that the Trump campaign staged the incident, very likely seeking to discredit the campaign and limit sympathy for him among US citizens. The relative success of the attack will very likely motivate other threat actors to target Trump again. Far-right activists and media personalities will almost certainly claim left-wing activists or President Biden’s supporters perpetrated the attack, seeking to discredit the incumbent administration and left-wing activists. Some far-right extremists will very likely threaten or attempt to harm President Biden, claiming that he authorized the attack.
The high-profile nature of the attack will very likely inspire copycat incidents, likely increasing the risk of similar acts of violence at other political events leading to the federal election. US politicians from both Republican and Democratic parties will very likely face an increased number and severity of threats to their safety. Threats to politicians’ safety will likely limit campaigning by both parties, making outside appearances and long exposures to large crowds unlikely unless large numbers of security personnel are present. Further attacks will very likely damage US citizens' confidence in US political stability, contributing to a greater sense of crisis leading to further violence.
The incident very likely exposes potential security vulnerabilities, including inadequate event security protocols, deficiencies in weapon detection and screening, insufficient crowd control measures, outdated emergency response plans, weak perimeter security, and ineffective communication and coordination, that likely will need to be addressed to prevent future attacks. These vulnerabilities are very likely to require immediate attention and mitigation measures.

Who will it directly impact: