December 22-28, 2022 | Issue 28 - AFRICOM
Martina Sclaverano, Andreea Troneci, Peter Roberto, Richard Mathewson, Matthew Bauer, Lucy Game
Jashanpreet Malhi, Editor; Salomon Montaguth, Senior Editor
MONUSCO peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo[1]
Date: December 22, 2022
Location: Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Parties involved: UN Security Council; United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO); UN peacekeepers; March 23 Movement (M23); Goma residents; Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC)
The event: Goma residents expressed anger concerning the UN Security Council’s mandate to extend MONUSCO to December 2023 amid MONUSCO’s inability to secure eastern Congo from violent rebel groups.[2]
Analysis & Implications:
Goma residents will very likely organize protests against MONUSCO, likely leading to clashes between demonstrators and UN peacekeepers. The clashes will very likely undermine support for MONUSCO and the Congolese government and have a roughly even chance of increasing public support for violent actions by non-state actors, like the M23, against MONUSCO in Eastern Congo. There is a roughly even chance some Goma residents will join the M23 in fighting MONUSCO and FARDC if the protest demands are not satisfied, almost certainly intensifying the conflict by increasing M23 forces.
The UN will very unlikely repeal the MONUSCO extension, making peace agreements between MONUSCO and M23 harder to reach. Violence between FARDC and rebel groups in eastern Congo, like M23, will very likely continue, with a roughly even chance of civilian targeting by rebel groups. The UN will very likely increase peacekeeping forces in Eastern Congo to protect local civilians and will very likely attempt to broker a ceasefire between M23 and FARDC forces via a peace summit.
Date: December 22, 2022
Location: Banjul, Gambia
Parties involved: Gambian government; Gambian President Adama Barrow; Lance Corporal Sanna Fadera; Gambian state police; Gambia Armed Forces (GAF); Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS); Senegalese government; Senegalese security service; Nigerian security service; Ghanaian security service; Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP)
The event: Fadera and four other officers were arrested for allegedly attempting a coup on the Gambian government. The suspected accomplices are junior officers from the navy, police, and other military divisions.[3]
Analysis & Implications:
The Gambian government will likely increase internal military screening to identify other accomplices and prevent any attacks. President Barrow will likely increase intelligence sharing capacity with the Senegalese, Nigerian, and Ghanaian security services to broaden the capacity to identify systemic security issues indicative of a coup attempt. President Barrow will likely deploy heightened personal and workplace security personnel to prevent future coup threats. Gambian authorities will likely increase random checks of military personnel, with a roughly even chance of police authorities seizing personal objects like cell phones and computers of suspected military personnel to analyze their communication history.
The arrests and the lack of trust will likely further erode the deteriorating relationship between the GAF and President Barrow. There is a roughly even chance that GAF members will increase resentment against the government, with their dissent almost certainly leading to military splintering and pushing military personnel to join anti-government non-state groups such as ISWAP. Discontent and anti-government sentiments among military personnel would very likely decrease President Barrow’s support, almost certainly increasing the risk of further coups in Gambia. Neighboring states such as Senegal will very likely assist Gambia in mediating the governing crisis to prevent the risk of a coup or insurgency spreading in other countries in the region.
[1] “MONUSCO Conducts Joint Operation with Congolese Forces in Beni” by United Nations Photo licensed under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
[2] DR Congo: Goma residents angry over the extension of MOUNSCO's mandate, Africanews, December 2022, https://www.africanews.com/2022/12/22/dr-congo-goma-residents-angry-over-the-extension-of-mounscos-mandate/
[3] Gambia navy officer behind failed coup bid - government, BBC, December 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-64063090