Date: September 2, 2022
Jan García, Daniel Ruiz, Juliet Sites, Aina Merino Bello, Marina Damji, Julia Tsarnas, SOUTHCOM
Salomon Montaguth, Justin Maurina, Editor; Hannah Norton, Senior Editor
Buenos Aires map highlighting the Recoleta neighborhood[1]
Event: On September 1, 2022, Argentina's vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner survived an assassination attempt after the perpetrator’s gun jammed.[2] Kirchner was greeting a crowd outside of her home in the Recoleta neighborhood of Buenos Aires.[3] The suspect, identified as Fernando André Sabag Montiel, was arrested minutes later.[4] The perpetrator criticized the government's social plans on his social networks, supported the extradition of foreigners and followed various hate groups.[5] Argentine police found the suspect’s past record of weapons possession and raided the suspect's home, where they found more than 100 bullets.[6] The President of Argentina, Alberto Fernandez, decreed a national holiday this Friday, September 2, for the country to gather in support of the vice president.[7]
Significance: The attack against Kirchner will likely inspire other individuals to commit similar attacks against Argentine officials. The Argentine government will likely immediately impose curfews and very likely increase police presence in Buenos Aires to prevent further attacks until the election in October 2023. The Argentine police will likely carry out more raids and arrests of individuals linked to the attacker. Kirchner’s supporters will likely organize marches to show their support for her in the coming days. Critics of Kirchner will likely continue to spread rhetoric that the assassination attempt was a publicity stunt to avoid repercussions for her upcoming trial, which is unlikely as the arrested suspect was critical of this administration. Disputes on the legitimacy of the assassination attempt will likely further polarize Argentina’s political climate, likely increasing conflict between opposing individuals.
Recommendations
CTG recommends the Argentine authorities continue searching for emails, comments and messages sent by the attacker to identify if others are likely to commit attacks against Argentine politicians. By searching the individual’s and his acquaintance’s properties, as there will likely be more ammunition and weaponry.
Social media platforms, including mainstream and encrypted sites, should monitor key phrases such as “kill,” “assassinate,” “setup,” “fake,” and “publicity stunt” on posts related to the assassination attempt to detect future threats and monitor the rhetoric of those who believe the assassination was fake.
It is recommended that the Vice President’s security team increase vigilance to detect future threats. Although Kirchner prefers her security team to follow her loosely, it is recommended her security team accompany her closely during public appearances. It is also recommended that the security team increase the number of escorts in her security scheme and employ ballistic shields to prevent future attacks.
It is recommended that security agencies be prepared to intervene in protests in support of Kirchner in order to avoid further instability in the country. It is also recommended that riot control agents protect critical locations such as the congress, the courts, and the president’s and the vice-president's residence.
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) will continue monitoring this issue for future developments. CTG’s Worldwide Analysis of Threats, Crimes, and Hazards (W.A.T.C.H.) Officers will monitor Argentina for future targeting of political figures. If there is any additional and or critical information please contact us at The Counterterrorism Group (CTG) by Telephone 202-643-248 or email info@counterterrorismgroup.com
The Counterterrorism Group (CTG)
[1] “Recoleta-Buenos Aires map” by Schummy~commonswiki licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0
[2] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner: Gun jams during bid to kill Argentina vice-president, BBC, September 2022, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-62762421
[3] "Un intento de magnicidio": un hombre apunta con una pistola a Cristina Fernández cuando llegaba a su casa en Buenos Aires, BBC, September 2022, https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-america-latina-62761292 (translated by Daniel Ruiz)
[4] Fernando André Sabag Montiel, brasileño, de 35 años: el hombre detrás del arma que gatilló contra Cristina Kirchner, elDiarioAr, September 2022, https://www.eldiarioar.com/politica/fernando-andres-sabag-montiel-brasileno-35-anos-hombre-detras-arma-gatillo-cristina-kirchner_1_9283256.html (translated by Daniel Ruiz)
[5] El perfil del atacante de Cristina Kirchner: tuvo llamativas apariciones en TV y sigue a grupos de odio, El País, September 2022, https://elcomercio.pe/mundo/latinoamerica/cristina-kirchner-fernando-andres-sabag-montiel-el-perfil-del-atacante-de-la-vicepresidenta-de-argentina-tuvo-llamativas-apariciones-en-tv-y-sigue-grupos-de-odio-recoleta-alberto-fernandez-narracion-historias-ec-noticia/ (translated by Daniel Ruiz)
[6] Hallaron 100 balas en la casa del hombre que intentó asesinar a Cristina Kirchner, Infobae, September 2022, https://www.infobae.com/politica/2022/09/02/hallaron-100-balas-en-la-casa-del-hombre-que-intento-asesinar-a-cristina-kirchner/ (translated by Daniel Ruiz)
[7] Declaran feriado nacional en Argentina este 2 de septiembre tras atentado contra Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, September 2022, https://cnnespanol.cnn.com/2022/09/02/2-de-septiembre-feriado-nacional-argentina-ataque-cristina-fernandez-de-kirchner/ (translated by Daniel Ruiz)